2011年12月02日 13:13 PM
“世界工厂”透不过气了
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At the Winfire cigarette lighter factory in the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou, Hannah Sun, the foreign trade manager, does not need economic data to know that manufacturing in China is struggling. | 在温州兴丰烟具制造有限公司(Winfire)的打火机工厂里，身为外贸部经理的Hannah Sun不需要看经济数据也知道，中国制造业目前处境艰难。 |
Earlier this year, a big overseas client stopped new orders at the company because of global uncertainties, forcing the factory to sack about 40 of its 100-strong workforce. | 今年早些时候，国外的一个大客户虑及全球经济的不确定性，不再向该公司下新订单，迫使上面这家拥有100多名员工的打火机工厂裁员了40来人。 |
“The situation is even worse for shoe manufacturers,” Ms Sun says. “This is normally a very busy time for them but this year lots of shoe factories have just stopped production altogether and many migrant workers have been fired and returned home.” | Hannah Sun表示：“鞋厂的处境更糟糕。往年这个时候对他们来说通常是非常繁忙的季节，但今年许多鞋厂干脆停产，许多农民工被解雇，只能回家。” |
Millions of factories like Ms Sun’s are being squeezed on all sides by rising costs, labour shortages, shrinking margins and a collapse in new orders from overseas. Many small manufacturers face going out of business thanks to government policies and immutable demographic and economic forces that make low-end production in China increasingly untenable. | 几百万家与兴丰烟具一样的工厂正受到成本持续上涨、劳动力紧缺、利润率下滑以及海外订单锐减等因素的全面挤压。由于政府实行的政策，加上难以改变的一些人口和经济因素，导致中国低端生产日益难以维系，许多小型制造企业已到了经营不下去的地步。 |
China’s official purchasing managers’ index for November shows this trend playing out across the country as the manufacturing sector, which officially makes up about 50 per cent of gross domestic product, contracted for the first time in almost three years. The index, released on Thursday, fell to 49.0 in November, down from 51.4 in October, dropping below the 50 reading that separates expansion from contraction. Readings for new orders and new export orders point to worse to come, with factories already laying off workers, buying fewer raw materials and cutting production. | 中国官方的11月份采购经理指数(PMI)显示，这一趋势是全国性的：占到国内生产总值 (GDP) 约50%的制造业出现了将近三年来的首次收缩。周四发布的11月份PMI从10月份的51.4跌至49.0，跌穿了50这一扩张与收缩的分界线。新订单和 新出口订单指数预示形势还将恶化，目前工厂已经在减员、减少购买原材料和减产。 |
“China’s PMI tells a simple story: an across-the-board, deepening slowdown in the country’s manufacturing sector,” said Stephen Green, head of research for greater China at Standard Chartered. | 按渣打银行(Standard Chartered)大中华区研究主管王志浩(Stephen Green)的话说，“中国采购经理指数清晰地传达了这样一个信息：中国制造业出现了整体的、正在加深的收缩”。 |
The first and most obvious reason for the slump in manufacturing is the decline in global demand, particularly from embattled economies in Europe. David Liu, president of Luca Angelo Leather Product in the southern industrial town of Dongguan, says his company’s exports to Europe have dropped by up to 40 per cent in the last two months and, although orders from the domestic market have held up, his costs are rising. | 导致制造业滑坡的第一个、也是最明显的原因是全球需求下滑，尤其是身陷困境的欧洲经济体的需求 下滑。东莞乐凯安吉皮具有限公司(Luca Angelo Leather Product)总经理刘道松(David Liu)表示，最近两个月里，乐凯安吉对欧洲的出口下降了40%之多，而在国内市场上，尽管订单状况保持良好，但成本却在不断上涨。 |
“Suppliers ask for payments without delay and that adds to our finance costs,” Mr Liu said. “Banks are strictly controlling loans to [small and medium-sized enterprises] and many of my friends are considering cutting production.” | “供货商要求即刻付款，这增加了我们的财务成本，”刘道松说。“银行正在严格控制中小企业贷款，我有不少朋友都在考虑减产。” |
Mr Liu’s comments highlight the longer-term challenges facing manufacturers of low-tech products in China’s coastal manufacturing belt, which until recently was better known as the workshop of the world. Falling orders come as many companies face higher prices for raw materials, restricted access to credit and greater environmental compliance and labour costs. For years, Beijing has promoted policies aimed at moving manufacturing up the value chain and actively discouraged the state-owned banking system from lending to small, low-tech producers such as Winfire. But with a huge portion of Chinese manufacturing still in low-end industries such as textiles, rising costs and inadequate access to credit mean many producers are being slowly strangled rather than climbing the technology ladder. | 刘道松的话突显出，在一直以“世界工厂”而闻名的中国沿海制造业产业带，许多低科技产品制造企 业正面临一系列长期挑战。在订单持续减少之际，许多公司还面临原材料涨价、贷款难、环境合规成本及劳动力成本上涨等问题。中国政府多年来一直在推行旨在推 动制造业沿价值链攀升的政策，大力阻止国有银行体系向兴丰烟具这种规模小、技术含量低的生产商放贷。然而，中国绝大部分制造企业仍身处诸如纺织业之类的低 端行业，成本上涨和贷款难导致的是许多制造企业慢慢被扼杀，而不是沿着技术阶梯爬升。 |
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