除却欧猪五国，整个欧洲都资不抵债

欧洲正在步入全面危机。

You see, the debt problems in Europe are not simply related to Greece. They are SYSTEMIC. The below chart shows the official Debt to GDP ratios for the major players in Europe.

可以看出，欧洲的债务问题不单单涉及到希腊，而是系统性的。下图中显示了欧洲主要成员官方债务与GDP的比率。

As you can see, even the more “solvent” countries like Germany and France are sporting Debt to GDP ratios of 75% and 84% respectively.

正如所看到的，甚至那些“有偿付能力”的国家，比如德国法国，债务与GDP的比率都分别高达75%与84%。

These numbers, while bad, don’t account for unfunded liabilities. And Europe is nothing if not steeped in unfunded liabilities.

这组数字虽然已经很糟糕，但是还不包括无资金准备的负债。如果不采用无资金准备的负债欧洲将一无所有。

Let’s consider Germany. According to Axel Weber, the head of Germany’s Central Bank, Germany is in fact sitting on a REAL Debt to GDP ratio of over 200%. This is Germany… with unfunded liabilities equal to over TWO times its current GDP.

以德国为例，根据德国中央银行行长Axel Weber的说法德国实际的债务与GDP的比率超过200%。这就是德国，无资金准备的负债相当于其现有GDP的两倍。

To put the insanity of this into perspective, Weber’s claim is akin to Ben Bernanke going on national TV and saying that the US actually owes more than $30 trillion and that the debt ceiling is in fact a joke.

如果要提到这些疯狂的数据，Weber的声明同Ben Bernanke相似，其干脆到国家电台上说实际的欠债达到30万亿美元，债务上限实际就是一个笑话。

What’s truly frightening about this is that Weber is most likely being conservative here. Jagadeesh Gokhale of the Cato Institute published a paper for EuroStat in 2009 claiming Germany’s unfunded liabilities are in fact closer to 418%.

真正让人感到惊恐的是Weber的数据还是保守的。卡托研究所的Jagadeesh Gokhale在2009年为欧洲统计局发表过文章声称德国的无准备负债实际上接近418%。

And of course, Germany has yet to recapitalize its banks.

当然，德国已经在调整银行资本。

Indeed, by the German Institute for Economic Research’s OWN admission, German banks need 147 billion Euros’ worth of new capital.

事实上，德国经济研究所自己承认，德国银行需要价值1470亿欧元的资金。

To put this number into perspective TOTAL EQUITY at the top three banks in Germany is less than 100 billion Euros.

将这些数据放到图表中，德国最大的三个银行的总资产低于1000亿欧元。

And this is GERMANY we’re talking about: the supposed rock-solid balance sheet of Europe. How bad do you think the other, less fiscally conservative EU members are?

我们在讨论的是德国-被认为是欧洲资产负债表最坚实的一个国家。其他财政政策更保守的成员的糟糕情况就可想而知了。

Think BAD. As in systemic collapse bad.

Indeed, let’s consider TOTAL debt sitting on Financial Institutions’ balance sheets in Europe. The below chart shows this number for financial institutions in several major EU members relative to their country’s 2010 GDP.

让我们站在欧洲金融机构的资产负债表上考虑总的债务。下图中显示的是欧盟几个主要成员的债务占2010GDP的比率：

Country

Country 国家 Financial Institutions’ Gross Debt as a % of GDP 金融机构总债务占GDP的比率 Portugal 葡萄牙 65% Italy 意大利 99% Ireland 冰岛 664% Greece 希腊 21% Spain 西班牙 113% UK 英国 735% France 法国 148% Germany德国 95% EU as a whole 总体 148% Source: IMF （数据来源：IMF）

Financial Institutions’ Gross Debt as a % of GDP

Portugal

65%

Italy

99%

Ireland

664%

Greece

21%

Spain

113%

UK

735%

France

148%

Germany

95%

EU as a whole

148%

Source: IMF

As you can see, financial institutions in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Ireland are all ticking time bombs.

如你所看到的，德国、法国、意大利、西班牙、英国以及冰岛的金融机构就像是定时炸弹。

Indeed, taken as a whole, European financial institutions have more debt than Europe’s ENTIRE GDP. Let’s compare the situation there to that in the US banking system.

事实上，从总体来看，欧洲金融机构的债务高于欧洲总的GDP.让我们来比较一下美国银行系统的相关数据。

Taken as a whole, the US banking system is leveraged at 13 to 1. Leverage levels at the TBTFs are much much higher… but when you add them in with the 8,100+ other banks in the US, total US bank leverage is 13 to 1.

总体上来看，美国银行系统的杠杆为13:1。TBTFs水平或许更高一些…但是8100多个银行会总后，真个美国银行的杠杆率为13:1.

The European banking system as a whole is leveraged at nearly twice this at over 26 to 1. That’s the ENTIRE European Banking system leveraged at near Lehman levels (Lehman was 30 to 1 when it collapsed).

欧洲银行系统的杠杆接近美国的两倍，超过26:1。整个欧洲银行系统的杠杆接近雷曼水平（雷曼倒闭时为30:1）

To put this into perspective, with a leverage level of 26 to 1, you only need a 4% drop in asset prices to wipe out ALL capital. What are the odds that European bank assets fall 4% in value in the near future as the PIIGS continue to collapse?

将这些数据放到图表中，在26:1的杠杆水平，资产价格只需要下降4%就可以导致全部资本崩塌。在不久的将来欧洲银行资产下降4%的可能性有多大呢？

These leverage levels alone position Europe for a full-scale banking collapse on par with Lehman Brothers. Again, I’m talking about Europe’s ENTIRE banking system collapsing.

欧洲银行系统的杠杆水平与倒闭的雷曼兄弟在同一个水平上。再次，我强调现在谈到的是欧洲整个银行系统的崩溃。

This is not a question of “if,” it is a question of “when.” And it will very likely happen before the end of 2012.

这不是一个是否存在这种可能的问题，而是何时发生的问题。而且非常有可能发生在2012年底。

The reason that this is guaranteed to happen before the end of 2012 is that a HUGE percentage of European bank debt needs to be rolled over by the end of 2012.

2012年底之前可能发生的原因是欧洲银行有很大比例的债务需要在2012年底前展期。

I trust at this point you are beginning to see why any expansion of the EFSF or additional European bailouts is ultimately pointless: Europe’s ENTIRE BANKING SYSTEM as a whole is insolvent. Even a 4-10% drop in asset prices would wipe out ALL equity at many European banks.

我相信根据这些你已经开始认识到为什么欧洲稳定基金组织的任何扩张或者其他欧洲的紧急救援都是无济于事的：欧洲整个银行系统都是无药可救的。甚至资产价格的4%-10%的下跌都可以让许多欧洲银行的所有资产彻底崩溃。