2012年07月16日 13:51 PM
澳门博彩业渐失活力
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Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson was in a buoyant mood on a visit to his new project in Macau three months ago. The 5,800-room Sands Cotai Central, scheduled for completion next year, had already cost $4.4bn by then – “but who’s counting?” he said. | 3个月前，拉斯维加斯博彩业大亨谢尔登?埃德森(Sheldon Adelson)视察他位于澳门的新项目时，情绪非常乐观。共有5800个房间的金沙城中心(Sands' Cotai Central)计划明年完工，埃德森视察时，其建设成本已达44亿美元。但他说：“谁又真的在乎成本呢？” |
Mr Adelson, one of the biggest donors to Mitt Romney’s US presidential campaign, is brimming with confidence about the future of gaming in Macau, as is his cross-town rival Steve Wynn, who has just broken ground on a new $4bn casino in the former Portuguese colony. | 埃德森是支持米特?罗姆尼竞选美国总统的最主要捐助者之一，他对澳门博彩业的未来充满信心。与他同城竞争的史蒂夫?韦恩(Steve Wynn)也持同样观点。韦恩旗下一家造价40亿美元的新赌场近期刚在澳门破土动工。 |
Yet both are raising their stakes in Macau just as the market is losing steam. | 但就在埃德森和韦恩在澳门扩大投入之际，澳门的博彩市场却在逐渐失去活力。 |
Total gaming revenue rose 12 per cent in June from a year ago, following paltry 7 per cent growth in May. That is a far cry from the blistering pace of expansion that fuelled a seven-fold increase in gross gaming revenue between 2004, the year the first foreign-owned casino opened in the city, and 2011, when casinos made $34bn in revenue. | 6月份澳门博彩业总收入较上年同期增长12%，5月份同比增幅则仅为7%。相对于2004年至2011年澳门博彩业总收入高达7倍的耀眼增长来说，今年增速明显放缓。2004年，第一家外资赌场在澳门开张。2011年，澳门博彩业营收达到340亿美元。 |
Macau gaming stocks have slumped as that slowdown has become evident, with Sands China down around 30 per cent since April – falling 11 per cent in the past month alone – and MGM China down 02 since May. Wynn Macau and Melco International are both trading at record low price-to-earnings ratios. | 随着这种放缓趋势的明显化，澳门博彩业股票大幅下挫，金沙中国(Sands China)自4月份以来的跌幅已接近30%。其中6月份的单月跌幅就达到11%；美高梅中国(MGM China)自5月份以来则下跌约20%。永利澳门(Wynn Macau)和新濠国际发展有限公司(Melco International Development)的PE水平目前均处于历史最低点。 |
The main reasons for the hesitation are the sheer size of the market – last year’s revenue was equivalent to seven Las Vegas Strips – and decelerating economic growth in mainland China. | 博彩业增速放缓的主要原因是市场规模已非常庞大（去年澳门博彩业营收规模已相当于拉斯维加斯的7倍），以及中国大陆的经济增长放缓。 |
But there are other issues causing disquiet, including the potential for new restrictions on mainland Chinese gamblers travelling to Macau, which has its own borders, and burgeoning competition in the region. | 但还有其他因素引发担忧，包括中国大陆赌客赴澳门旅游可能面临新的限制措施，以及行业内部竞争不断加剧。 |
The 2008-09 global financial crisis showed what can happen to the gaming industry when the economy sours. Mr Adelson’s Las Vegas Sands flirted with bankruptcy, lacking sufficient cashflow to meet debt obligations, and along with other cash-strapped rivals, halted construction projects in Macau. | 2008至2009年的金融危机显示了经济疲软对博彩业可能造成的影响。当时，埃德森的拉斯维加斯金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands)徘徊在破产边缘，缺乏足够的现金流以满足偿债需求；埃德森的竞争对手同样现金短缺，停止了在澳门的新项目建设。 |
However, a repeat of that scenario is unlikely, says Grant Chum, gaming analyst at UBS, because in 2008 many of Macau’s largest casinos had only just opened their doors. | 但瑞士银行(UBS)博彩行业分析师格兰特?查姆(Grant Chum)指出，以上情况重现的可能性较小，因为在2008年的时候，澳门很多规模最大的赌场才刚刚开业。 |
In the years since the financial crisis, new resorts including the Venetian Macau, Stanley Ho’s Grand Lisboa and the Galaxy Macau have begun generating a lot of cash for their owners as the mainland Chinese economy averaged annual growth of more than 9 per cent and the number of mainland visitors rose nearly 50 per cent over the past three years. As a result, most Macau operators now have more cash than debt, says Mr Chum. | 而在金融危机后的几年里，澳门威尼斯人度假村酒店(Venetian Macao)、何鸿燊(Stanley Ho)旗下的新葡京酒店(Grand Lisboa)以及银河酒店渡假城(Galaxy Macau)已开始为其所有者带来充裕的现金流，其背景是，这几年里中国大陆年均经济增幅超过9%，来自大陆的游客人数在过去三年中增长近50%影响。因 此，查姆指出，绝大多数澳门博彩业经营者手中的现金规模超过负债。 |
Compared with Las Vegas casinos, which rely heavily on less-profitable non-gaming businesses, Macau resorts make up to four times more in earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation than Las Vegas properties, according to CLSA, the Asian brokerage. | 亚洲券商里昂证券(CLSA)表示,与严重依赖利润率较低的非赌博业务的拉斯维加斯赌场相比，澳门度假村的息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)最多较其高出四倍。 |
CLSA projects that even including the substantial costs of building new casinos and the backdrop of a slowing Chinese economy, the six Macau casino licence holders listed in Hong Kong and the US will generate a record $3.8bn-$5.7bn in annual free cashflow in 2013 and 2014. | 里昂证券还预计，即使将建造新赌场的巨额成本以及中国经济增速放缓纳入考虑，在香港和美国上市的澳门6家拥有牌照的赌场运营商2013和2014两年的自由现金流仍将达到38至57亿美元、 |
But the prediction assumes the continuation of favourable policies from Beijing – which is not a certainty. Last month, a vice-president of Agricultural Bank of China was arrested for allegedly using illegal proceeds to gamble in Macau. | 但以上预测的前提是假定中国政府对博彩业的支持政策将继续，而这一点并不确定。上月，中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)某副行长因涉嫌动用非法所得赴澳门赌博而被逮捕。 |
“High profile cases like [that] could potentially have a profound impact on the gaming industry in Macau,” says Aaron Fischer, head of consumer and gaming research at CLSA. | 里昂证券(CLSA)消费品与博彩行业研究主管艾伦?费舍尔(Aaron Fischer)表示：“此类重大案件或对澳门博彩业的发展构成重大影响。” |
It may have been coincidental but shortly after the arrest, a local newspaper in Macau reported that Beijing was tightening visa restrictions on independent travel from the mainland. The Macau government said it was not aware of any change but the number of independent visitors to the gaming enclave fell in the first quarter, the first decline since 2009. | 也许巧合的是，逮捕发生后不久，一家澳门报纸报道称，北京正在加强对从大陆到澳门自由旅游的签证限制。虽然澳门政府表示未听说任何动向，但第一季度大陆赴澳门的自由行游客人数下降，这是2009年以来的首次。 |
Given the lack of transparency in China’s visa policies, it is not clear if the two were related. But Macau, where over half of the visitors are from the mainland, came to a virtual standstill in the summer of 2008 when China abruptly suspended issuance of double-entry permits without giving a reason. | 由于中国签证制度缺乏透明度，因此尚不清楚签证限制传闻是否与游客人数下滑有关。但2008年夏，大陆曾未经任何解释突然暂停发放赴澳门双入境签证，导致澳门旅游业陷入停滞。赴澳门的游客一半以上来自中国大陆。 |
Macau is also no longer unique as casinos spring up in other parts of Asia. The two casino resorts in Singapore made as much in revenue last year as the Las Vegas Strip, just two years after opening. In the Philippines, a massive casino district is being built along Manila Bay, and the residents of a Taiwan island last weekend [July 7] voted in favour of the government’s plan to allow casinos to be built there. | 此外，随着亚洲其他地区的赌场纷纷出现，澳门已不再具有独特性。去年新加坡两大博彩度假村的营收规模即与拉斯维加斯相当，而且它们的开业不过两年。菲律宾则沿马尼拉湾建起了一个大型博彩区。上周末(7月7日)，台湾一个岛屿的居民投票通过了政府在当地修建赌场的计划。 |
All this means that new construction in Macau comes with increased risk, says Mr Pinge. “For the first time since 2009, new supply of gaming tables in Macau has exceeded the growth in demand. Investors should be aware of the intensity of the competition going forward, and how that may impact profit growth.” | 以上因素都意味着，在澳门新建赌场项目的风险在增大。自2009年以来，澳门赌桌数量增幅首次超过了赌博业务营收增幅。投资者应关注未来博彩业内竞争的激烈程度，以及这对利润增长可能构成的影响。 |
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