分享

巧克力、认知能力和诺贝尔奖

 昵称dIdRxP0q 2012-10-16

植物膳食富含的黄酮已被证明可改善认知功能。特别是有规律地摄入黄酮与存在相关障碍的老年人群的痴呆风险的减少,一些认知检测结果的改善,认知功能的改善等相关联。黄酮类的一个组成亚集称为黄烷醇,广泛存在于可可粉,绿茶,红酒以及一些水果中,似乎可有效延缓乃至逆转老龄化带来的认知表现的衰减。食物黄烷醇通过刺激外周血管和脑部血管舒张而改善内皮功能并降低血压。 老龄化Wistar–Unilever大鼠试验曾报道摄入可可多酚可改善认知表现。

Since chocolate consumption could hypothetically improve cognitive function not only in individuals but also in whole populations, I wondered whether there would be a correlation between a country's level of chocolate consumption and its population's cognitive function. To my knowledge, no data on overall national cognitive function are publicly available. Conceivably, however, the total number of Nobel laureates per capita could serve as a surrogate end point reflecting the proportion with superior cognitive function and thereby give us some measure of the overall cognitive function of a given country.

有假想认为摄入巧克力可以改善个人以及所有人群的认知功能,研究人员产生了如下疑问:一个国家或地区可可的消费水平是否与该地区人群认知功能有关联?作者没有搜索到有关整个国家人群认知功能的相关数据的存在。然而,研究人员想像能否用一个国家人均诺贝尔奖获得数量来作为反应具有卓越认知功能的人群比例的代表性终点,以此来量度一个特定国家总体认知功能的水平。

METHODS

方法

A list of countries ranked in terms of Nobel laureates per capita was downloaded from Wikipedia (/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Nobel_laureates_per_capita). Because the population of a country is substantially higher than its number of Nobel laureates, the numbers had to be multiplied by 10 million. Thus, the numbers must be read as the number of Nobel laureates for every 10 million persons in a given country.

人均诺贝尔奖获得次数的国家名单从维基百科下载,链接如下(/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Nobel_laureates_per_capita)。一个国家的总人口要远远高于其诺贝尔奖获人数,因此获奖数字被乘以1000万。研究人员以特定国家每1000万人口中诺贝尔奖的获得次数作为测量指标。

All Nobel Prizes that were awarded through October 10, 2011, were included. Data on per capita yearly chocolate consumption in 22 countries was obtained from Chocosuisse (www.chocosuisse.ch/web/chocosuisse/en/home), Theobroma-cacao (www.theobroma-cacao.de/wissen/wirtschaft/international/konsum), and Caobisco (www.caobisco.com/page.asp?p=213). Data were available from 2011 for 1 country (Switzerland), from 2010 for 15 countries, from 2004 for 5 countries, and from 2002 for 1 country (China).

试验纳入了截止至2011年10月10日所颁布的诺贝尔奖。研究人员从瑞士巧克力网站(www.chocosuisse.ch/web/chocosuisse/en/home),Theobroma-cacao (www.theobroma-cacao.de/wissen/wirtschaft/international/konsum), 和 Caobisco (www.caobisco.com/page.asp?p=213) 等网站得到了22个国家平均每年每人消耗巧克力的数据。其中1个国家(瑞士)的数据自2011年开始是有效的,15个国家的数据自2010年是有效的,5个国家从2004年开始是有效的,而中国的数据则从2002年开始即为有效数据。

RESULTS

结果

There was a close, significant linear correlation (r=0.791, P<0.0001) between chocolate consumption per capita and the number of Nobel laureates per 10 million persons in a total of 23 countries (Figure 1FIGURE 1

 

Correlation between Countries' Annual Per Capita Chocolate Consumption and the Number of Nobel Laureates per 10 Million Population.

). When recalculated with the exclusion of Sweden, the correlation coefficient increased to 0.862. Switzerland was the top performer in terms of both the number of Nobel laureates and chocolate consumption. The slope of the regression line allows us to estimate that it would take about 0.4 kg of chocolate per capita per year to increase the number of Nobel laureates in a given country by 1. For the United States, that would amount to 125 million kg per year. The minimally effective chocolate dose seems to hover around 2 kg per year, and the dose–response curve reveals no apparent ceiling on the number of Nobel laureates at the highest chocolate-dose level of 11 kg per year.

结果显示,在23个国家里,平均每年巧克力的消费量与平均每1000万人中诺贝尔奖获得次数呈现紧密的,显著性的线性关系(r=0.791, P<0.0001) (图1 平均每年每人消费巧克力的量与平均每1000万人口中诺贝尔奖的获得次数之间的关系)。排除瑞典后重新计算,相关系数增加至0.862。瑞士在人均巧克力消费量与人均诺贝尔奖获得次数排名中均居首位。回归直线的斜率显示,大约人均每年消费0.4千克巧克力可使诺贝尔奖获得次数增加1人次。对于美国来说,大约要每年消费1亿2500万美元的巧克力。最低限度巧克力效应值大约在2千克每年左右徘徊,剂量反应曲线揭示直到平均每年消费11千克巧克力的最高消费剂量,诺贝尔奖获得次数也并无显示出上限。

DISCUSSION

讨论

The principal finding of this study is a surprisingly powerful correlation between chocolate intake per capita and the number of Nobel laureates in various countries. Of course, a correlation between X and Y does not prove causation but indicates that either X influences Y, Y influences X, or X and Y are influenced by a common underlying mechanism. However, since chocolate consumption has been documented to improve cognitive function, it seems most likely that in a dose-dependent way, chocolate intake provides the abundant fertile ground needed for the sprouting of Nobel laureates. Obviously, these findings are hypothesis-generating only and will have to be tested in a prospective, randomized trial.

这一研究发现人均巧克力摄入量与不同国家的诺贝尔奖获得次数呈现令人惊讶的强烈的相关性。当然,X因素与Y因素之间的相互关系并不意味着二者之间具有因果关系,但至少显示或者X影响了Y,或者Y影响了X,或者X和Y被共同的潜在机制所影响。然而,尽管巧克力摄入已被认定可改善认知功能,它更可能是以一种剂量依赖性的方式来呈现,巧克力摄入为诺贝尔奖的产生提供了多种元素的营养,以及坚实的基础。很明显,这些发现仅仅是假说,还需要进一步的前瞻性随机化试验予以证实。

 

 

 

The only possible outlier in Figure 1 seems to be Sweden. Given its per capita chocolate consumption of 6.4 kg per year, we would predict that Sweden should have produced a total of about 14 Nobel laureates, yet we observe 32. Considering that in this instance the observed number exceeds the expected number by a factor of more than 2, one cannot quite escape the notion that either the Nobel Committee in Stockholm has some inherent patriotic bias when assessing the candidates for these awards or, perhaps, that the Swedes are particularly sensitive to chocolate, and even minuscule amounts greatly enhance their cognition.

图1所示唯一的例外是瑞典。它的人均每年巧克力消费量为6.4千克,以此预测它应该产生了14位诺贝尔奖得主,然而事实上,它已经为32位本国公民加冕桂冠。试验中观察到的获奖数据高于预测值2倍以上,只能认为每一位斯德哥尔摩的诺贝尔奖评委在证实奖金与荣誉应该花落谁家时,都不可能完全脱离爱国主义情操的范畴,或者是,瑞典人对于巧克力特别敏感,即使是很少的摄入量也能刺激他们获得诺贝尔奖。

A second hypothesis, reverse causation — that is, that enhanced cognitive performance could stimulate countrywide chocolate consumption — must also be considered. It is conceivable that persons with superior cognitive function (i.e., the cognoscenti) are more aware of the health benefits of the flavanols in dark chocolate and are therefore prone to increasing their consumption. That receiving the Nobel Prize would in itself increase chocolate intake countrywide seems unlikely, although perhaps celebratory events associated with this unique honor may trigger a widespread but most likely transient increase.

第二种假设,逆向推理—强化的认知表现能够刺激全国范围内巧克力的消费—这点也应该考虑。有可能有着卓越认知功能的人更清楚地意识到黑巧克力中黄烷醇的健康受益并因此刻意增加了巧克力的的摄食。个人获得诺贝尔奖而推动了整个国家巧克力的进食,这听起来不可思议,然而,也许这一至高无上的荣誉的庆祝晚会刺激了全国范围的短时间的消费增加。

Finally, as to a third hypothesis, it is difficult to identify a plausible common denominator that could possibly drive both chocolate consumption and the number of Nobel laureates over many years. Differences in socioeconomic status from country to country and geographic and climatic factors may play some role, but they fall short of fully explaining the close correlation observed.

最后,对于第三种假设,很难明确在数年时间内能够刺激巧克力消费与诺贝尔奖获得的共同因素。国家与国家之间社会经济学因素的差异以及地理,气候因素也可能起到一些作用,但它们似乎都不足以解释我们观察到的二者之间的紧密联系。

STUDY LIMITATIONS

研究的限制因素

The present data are based on country averages, and the specific chocolate intake of individual Nobel laureates of the past and present remains unknown. The cumulative dose of chocolate that is needed to sufficiently increase the odds of being asked to travel to Stockholm is uncertain. This research is evolving, since both the number of Nobel laureates and chocolate consumption are time-dependent variables and change from year to year.

本文采纳的数据是基于国家平均值,至于诺贝尔奖得主个人的巧克力摄入量我们无从得知。摄入巧克力的积累剂量达到多少才能够受邀参加斯德哥尔摩的颁奖晚会也无法确定。这项研究也充满变数,因为诺贝尔奖的获奖次数和巧克力消费量会随时间而变化。

CONCLUSIONS

结论

Chocolate consumption enhances cognitive function, which is a sine qua non for winning the Nobel Prize, and it closely correlates with the number of Nobel laureates in each country. It remains to be determined whether the consumption of chocolate is the underlying mechanism for the observed association with improved cognitive function.

巧克力消费能够提高认知功能,这是一个获得诺贝尔奖的必要条件,它与每个国家诺贝尔奖获得次数有着紧密的关联。摄入巧克力与观察到的改善认知功能的机制尚需要进一步的研究。

undefined

    本站是提供个人知识管理的网络存储空间,所有内容均由用户发布,不代表本站观点。请注意甄别内容中的联系方式、诱导购买等信息,谨防诈骗。如发现有害或侵权内容,请点击一键举报。
    转藏 分享 献花(0

    0条评论

    发表

    请遵守用户 评论公约

    类似文章 更多