Iraq’s oil
The Kurdish opening
Iraqi Kurds and Western oil firms have outfoxed the government in Baghdad
Kurdish tankers carry oil and hopes of eventual independence
IRAQ is blessed with abundant oil that is cheap to extract and close to newly built export terminals. Production has hit a three-decade high and continues to rise steadily. By 2035, predicts the International Energy Agency (IEA), an advocate for rich-world consumers, Iraqi output could more than double, to 8.3m barrels per day (b/d).
But Western oil firms are increasingly reluctant to play a part in this boom. ExxonMobil appears keen to sell its stake in West Qurna, one of the giant fields in southern Iraq that will provide much of the production growth. Royal Dutch Shell and BP are both still working in the south, but unhappily so. Suffocating bureaucracy and onerous contract terms make life difficult. Heavier-than-expected costs and delays to infrastructure undercut profits.
Three years ago when they signed contracts with the Iraqi government, the oil majors were prepared to accept hiccups. But their patience has thinned with the arrival of an alternative source of Iraqi oil. Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous province in the country’s north, has been offering competing and much more lucrative deals. ExxonMobil’s decision last year to acquire six blocks in the region angered the central government, which considers the deal illegal and lays claim to Kurdish oil. But the world’s largest oil company started a trend. In July Total, Chevron and Gazprom all signed contracts with the Kurdistan regional government, potentially dooming their chances of winning future business in the south. BG, a British firm, was in Erbil, the Kurdish capital, on a scouting mission in late October.
“Kurdistan is 11 years ahead of the rest of Iraq in terms of political and commercial development, ” says Luay al-Khatteeb, head of the Iraq Energy Institute, a London-based think-tank. Kurdistan’s potential oil reserves of around 45 billion barrels are less than a third of those in southern Iraq. Still, the Kurdish oil minister, Ashti Hawrami, believes output of 1m b/d is possible within three years.
The tricky part is getting the oil to market. The Kurds today export around 200, 000 b/d through pipelines controlled by the central government. Mr Hawrami wants to build a new Kurdish-owned pipe to Turkey, feeding long-held dreams of Kurdish independence. That unnerves Turkey which is fighting Kurdish separatists in its south-east. Some Turkish officials seem to acknowledge the possibility of an eventual Kurdish state in northern Iraq and seek to make it commercially dependent on Turkey. Co-operating with the Iraqi Kurds would also generate lucrative transit fees and offer Turkey an alternative to oil from Russia and Iran.
So far, Turkey has only allowed the Iraqi Kurds to export oil by lorry. To win approval for a pipeline, they would probably have to support Turkish opposition to Kurdish separatism outside Iraq. That seems unlikely. But the growing civil war in Syria is helping the Kurds. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, is angry with the Iraqi government for supporting Syria’s murderous regime. Backing Kurdish oil exports makes that point. But approving a pipeline may be a step too far for Mr Erdogan just now.
The Iraqi government is pondering how to respond. It could sweeten the terms of its contracts with the oil firms in the south. That might staunch the flow of Western capital to Kurdistan. In the meantime, the main beneficiaries of the majors’ receding interest in southern Iraq are Asian oil firms. Chinese will account for about 2m b/d of Iraq’s production by 2020. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, talks of a “Baghdad-to-Beijing” axis.
伊拉克石油
【导读】：伊拉克的库尔德人想借石油输出实现独立的梦想，但伊拉克政府会允许其这么做吗？
伊拉克石油
库尔德人的机会
伊拉克库尔德人①与西方石油公司以机智取胜于位于巴格达的伊拉克政府
库尔德人的油槽车装载着石油，也装载着最终独立的希望
伊拉克拥有丰富的石油资源，不但开采 方便，距离新建的出口码头也很近。目前，该国的石油开采量已达到30年来的最高水平，并且仍在稳步增加。据国际能源署②（一个拥护发达国家消费者的组织） 预计，到2035年，伊拉克的石油输出量将达到每天830万桶，是现在的一倍还多。
但面对伊拉克石油业的繁荣发展，西方 的石油公司却越来越不愿意参与其中。西古尔纳油田③是伊拉克南部的大型油田之一，伊拉克石油开采量的增加大部分将归功于这里，但埃克森美孚国际公司④似乎 急着想把它在该油田的股份卖掉。荷兰皇家壳牌⑤与英国石油公司⑥仍旧在伊拉克南部开采石油，但实际上却并不乐意这样做。伊拉克那令人窒息的官僚主义以及有 偿合同都使石油公司的日子不好过，而超出预期的基础设施建设成本以及工期的延误又削减了利润。
三年前，当这些石油公司与伊拉克政府 签订合同时，它们就已经做好了准备，接受将来可能会出现的小问题。但现在在伊拉克，它们又有了新的石油来源，因此它们的耐心更少了。库尔德斯坦是伊拉克北 部一个半自治的省，该省一直在与伊拉克政府竞争，为石油公司提供利润更加丰厚的交易。去年，埃克森美孚国际公司决定兼并该地区的六个区，这一做法激怒了中 央政府。政府称这一交易是非法的，同时还宣布库尔德地区的石油为政府所有。但这个世界上最大的石油公司开启了一股潮流。七月，道达尔⑦、雪佛龙⑧和俄罗斯 天然气工业股份公司⑨都与库尔德斯坦当地政府签订了合同，潜在地获得了将来在伊拉克南部打赢商战的机会。英国天然气集团（一家英国公司）则在库尔德人的省 会埃尔比勒，并将于十月底展开一项侦查任务。
伊拉克能源研究所是一个总部设在伦敦 的智囊团，该研究所的所长Luay al-Khatteeb称，“在政治和商业的发展程度上，库尔德斯坦要比伊拉克其他地区快11年”。库尔德斯坦的潜在石油储量约为450亿桶，不到伊拉克 南部石油储量的三分之一。但库尔德的石油部长Ashti Hawrami依旧坚信，在未来三年内，该地区每天输出100万桶石油还是有可能的。
比较棘手的问题是如何将石油运输到市 场上。现在，库尔德人每天通过由中央政府控制的石油管道向外输送20万桶石油。Hawrami先生希望能建一条通向土耳其的石油管道，这条库尔德人自己的 管道将帮助他们实现长期以来的独立梦想。这使土耳其十分焦虑，因为该国正在与其境内东南部的库尔德分离派打仗。一些土耳其官员似乎承认这样一种可能，即最 终库尔德人会在伊拉克北部建立一个国家，并试图在经济上脱离对土耳其的依赖。与伊拉克的库尔德人合作还能带来高利润的过境费，同时为土耳其提供除俄罗斯、 伊朗之外的第三个石油进口渠道。
到目前为止，土耳其人只允许伊拉克的 库尔德人通过卡车运输石油。如果想用管道运输石油，他们可能就需要支持土耳其人反对伊拉克境外的库尔德人分裂主义。这看起来似乎不太可能。但逐渐发展的叙 利亚内战正在帮助库尔德人。伊拉克政府支持叙利亚残暴的政权，这使土耳其总理热杰甫?塔伊甫?埃尔多安十分生气，土耳其支持库尔德人输出石油也印证了这一 点。但同意库尔德人使用石油管道这一步对埃尔多安先生来说似乎还太过遥远。
现在伊拉克政府正在思考应该如何应 对。它可以改变合同条款，使之更符合与南部地区签订合同的石油公司的利益，这样做或许能阻止西方资金流向库尔德斯坦。与此同时，西方主要石油公司对南部地 区兴趣的减少，获益最大的是亚洲的石油公司。到2020年，中国每天从伊拉克进口的石油将达到200万桶左右。国际能源署首席经济学家法提赫?比罗尔还提 到了“巴格达——北京”轴心这一说法。
