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IT IS less than four years since the homicidal zealots of Islamic State (IS) stood on the doorstep of Baghdad, their black flag already fluttering over several other Iraqi cities. The jihadists triumphed, albeit temporarily, because disgruntled Sunnis, former Baathists and others who felt alienated by the rule of Nuri al-Maliki, the Shia prime minister, stood aside. The central government lost control over much of the country. The independence-minded Kurds in the north watched while Iraq fell apart—until IS turned on them, too. 距离伊斯兰国(IS)的激进狂热分子站在巴格达的台阶上还不到4年，他们的黑旗已经飘扬在几个伊拉克城市上空。圣战分子取得了胜利，尽管是暂时的，因为心怀不满的逊尼派、前社会复兴党、以及其他被什叶派总理努里·马利基(Nuri al-Maliki)统治疏远的人站在同一边。中央政府失去了对这个国家大部分地区的控制。北方独立的库尔德人看着伊拉克倒下，直到他们也被IS袭击。 Today things look very different. Iraq has defeated IS and avoided the wave of Shia-on-Sunni violence that many predicted would follow. The number of civilians killed each month in fighting is a fraction of what it was in 2014. The government in Baghdad saw off a premature Kurdish push for independence last year. Oil production is up and the state has money. The power of foreigners, including Iran and America, has diminished as Iraqi politicians have learnt how to play one off against the others. In six weeks Iraq will hold an election, affirming its status as the only Arab democracy east of Tunisia. 今天的情况看起来很不一样。伊拉克已经打败了IS，并且避免了许多人预计会随之而来的什叶派和逊尼派之间的暴力浪潮。每个月在战斗中丧生的平民人数只是2014年的一小部分。去年，巴格达政府驱散了库尔德人还在酝酿中的争取独立的行动。石油产量在上升，国家有了钱。伊朗和美国等国外的力量已经减弱，因为伊拉克的政客们已经学会了如何与其他国家对抗。六周后，伊拉克将举行选举，确认其作为突尼斯以东唯一的阿拉伯民主国家的地位。 Iraq, in other words, is doing well. Some will argue that this justifies America’s invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein (which we supported). It does not. Too much blood was shed along the way in Iraq and elsewhere. America botched the occupation, touching off a brutal Sunni insurgency. Then Iraq’s politicians stoked sectarian divisions, leading to yet more violence. They must learn from these mistakes, or they will waste this hopeful moment. 换句话说，伊拉克做得很好。一些人会争辩说，这证明了美国入侵推翻萨达姆政权的正确性(这是我们支持的)，但并不是这样。在伊拉克和其他地方，已经流了太多的血。美国在占领这件事上搞砸了，触发了残暴的逊尼派叛乱。然后，伊拉克的政客们煽动宗派分裂，导致更多的暴力。他们必须从这些错误中吸取教训，否则就会浪费这个充满希望的时刻。 Iraq now looks much as it did in 2010, another election year, shortly after the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the precursor to IS. That victory was thanks largely to America’s support for “awakened” Sunni fighters, many of whom were repelled by the jihadists’ brutality. The Kurds, at the time, co-operated with the government in Baghdad. But after Barack Obama pulled most American soldiers out of Iraq in 2011, Mr Maliki locked the Sunnis out of the security services, cut off funds to the Kurds and jailed Iraqis who complained. 伊拉克现在看起来和2010年一样，是在伊拉克基地组织（IS的前身）被击败后不久的另一个选举年。这一胜利很大程度上要归功于美国对“觉醒”的逊尼派战士的支持，他们中的许多人都被圣战分子的暴行驱逐。当时的库尔德人与巴格达政府合作。但在2011年巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)将大部分美国士兵从伊拉克撤出后，马利基把逊尼派关在安全服务区外，切断了对库尔德人的资金，并监禁了那些发出怨声的伊拉克人。 Jobs for men with guns Today’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, is better. A Shia who is nonetheless popular with Sunnis, he has a chance to unite his country. Mr Abadi should merge the militias that helped vanquish IS into Iraq’s regular security forces. He should split the militiamen up and pay them directly, not through their leaders, in order to make them loyal to the state. The elderly could be pensioned off, the young dispatched to college and those who had jobs sent back to work. 今天的总理海德尔·阿巴迪(Haider al-Abadi)做的更好。他是一个什叶派，但在逊尼派中也很受欢迎，他有机会把他的国家团结起来。阿巴迪先生应该把那些帮助消灭IS的民兵组织并入伊拉克的常规安全部队。他应该拆散民兵组织，直接付钱给他们，而不是通过他们的领导人给，以使他们忠于国家。老年人可以退休并发养老金，年轻人被送进大学，而那些有工作的人又被送回去工作。 Sectarianism must be stamped out of politics, too. Since the invasion, Iraq’s leaders have done deals that guarantee most parties a share of power and its spoils. This has led to corruption and stagnation, not unity. Jobs are handed out by sect and ethnicity, not merit, and ministries are plundered. The state is so dirty that many Iraqis have come to doubt the merits of democracy. No opposition exists to hold the executive to account. 宗派主义也必须退出政治。自从入侵伊拉克以来，伊拉克领导人已经达成了一些协议，保证了大多数政党的权力和利益。这导致了腐败和停滞，而不是团结。工作是根据宗派和民族，而不是特长分配，政府部门被掠夺。国家如此肮脏，以至于许多伊拉克人开始怀疑民主的好处。不存在任何反对派来追究行政人员的责任。 Lately, parties have delighted Iraq’s increasingly secular voters by forming broad coalitions that campaign on issues. They briefly did the same in 2010. The test of this will come after the vote. The winners, having no doubt promised to tackle corruption, should do so. Ditto for vows to keep the peace and govern for all. With luck, a more normal Iraqi politics will emerge, based on policies and competence, not sect. 最近，政党通过在竞选议题上形成广泛的联盟来取悦伊拉克日益世俗的选民。他们在2010年做了同样的事情。这次投票将在投票后进行。毫无疑问，这些赢家将会解决腐败问题。同样，要发誓保持和平，并为所有人执政。幸运的是，伊拉克的政治将会以政策和能力为基础，而不是宗派，这会使伊拉克政治更加正常化。 This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Better days in Baghdad" 英文原文选自《经济学人》 |
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