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一、预测市场的主宰数学公式 Gann’s Master Mathematical Formula For Market Predictions By Daniel T. Ferrera 江恩预测市场的主宰数学公式 “After fifty-two years of experience and research going back hundreds of years, I have proved to my entire satisfaction that history repeats and that when we know the past, we can determine the future of prices”. The calculator that Gann is talking about 江恩说：“在25年的市场经验和研究了几百年的历史之后，我有足够的令人满意的证据证明历史一直在重复，而当我们知道了过去，我们就可以测定未来的价格” 江恩谈到的计算器就是他的52覆盖方图，它的基础是一年有52个星期。 “ Within the circle forms the square, there is an inner circle and an inner square, as well as an outer square and an outer circle which prove the Fourth Dimension in working out price movements”. This quote is describing a fractal nature or structural pattern existing in the markets that is the same on smaller levels as it is at larger levels. “在圆里有方，内有圆和方，同样外也有圆和方，这就证明了四度空间可以计算出价格的运动。” 引用江恩的这句话，描述了现在的市场与不规则的自然或结构之间的复制关系，事物在宏观水平和它在微观水平时是一模一样的。 Jumping over to Gann’s Angle course, on the last page, Gann says: “Figuring $100 par, as a basis for stock prices and changing these prices to degrees, 12? = 45-degrees, 25 = 90-degrees, 37?= 135-degrees, 50 = 180-degrees, 62? = 225-degrees, 75 = 270-degrees, 82? = 315-degrees, and 100 = 360”. If shares of XYZ stock moved up 12? dollars in 45 days, weeks or 45 months then the stock is on the price degree of it’s time angle, that is to say that price and time are equal or balanced. 跳过江恩的角度原理，在最后一页，江恩说：“演算一个票面价格100美圆的股票，作为股票基础的价格和角度之间的换算关系为：12.5 = 45度，25 = 90度，37.5 = 135度，50 = 180度，62.5 = 225度，75 = 270度，82.5 =315度，100 =360度。” 假如有个名字叫XYZ的股票用45天，周，月上涨了12.5美圆，那么这个股票的的价格就等于时间角度了，这样就可以说价格和时间相等并达到了平衡。（8分法的具体应用） Gann’s example: “When a stock sells at 50 on the 180th day, week or month, it is on the degree of its time angle”. “On February 1, 1915, U.S. Steel made a low at $38, which is closest to a price of $37?, which is 3/8th of 100 and equals 135-degree angle. Steel was 14 years or 168 months old on February 25, 1915, and hit the angle of 135-degrees, which showed that the price of Steel was behind time, but was in a strong position, holding at $38 above the 135-degree angle or the price $37?”. Just to make sure that you understand this information, U.S. Steel would have been balanced or “on the degree of its time angle” at a price of $46 5/8th because $100/ 360-degrees = 0.27777cents per degree and 168 months multiplied by 0.27777 = $46.67 which is closest to $46 or 5/8th in price. Therefore, Steel is $8 5/8th behind time. 江恩所举的事例：“当一个股票在第180天达到50的价格时要卖掉，因为它的价格水平已经处于他的时间角度上了”“在1915年的2月1日，美国钢铁形成了一个38美圆的低点，这个价格非常接近37.5美圆，它也是100的3/8或者等于135度角。在1915年的2月25日钢铁交易的年龄就达到14年或者168个月了，它冲击着135度角，显示了钢铁的交易价格在时间之后，但是却在一个很强大的位置上，正好在38美圆并超过了135度角以及37.5的价格”要是你确信你理解这个信息，美国钢铁的价格在46.625美圆将达到一个平衡或者价格水平处于它的时间角度上，因为100美圆除以360度等于0.27777分/度，那么168个月乘以0.27777就是46.67美圆，与46.625美圆在价格上非常接近，这样钢铁价格就比时间落后了8.625美圆 。（相对于1915年2月1日的低点38美圆） Gann goes on to say: “When Steel reached $200, it equaled 2 circles of 360-degrees (two complete cycles of $100). When it advanced to $261?, it was closest to $62? (5/8th) in the third cycle of $100 or nearest the 225-degree angle or 5/8th point, which is the strongest angle after it crossed the half-way point at $250 or the 180-degree angle”. Note that Gann rejects the two circles or cycles of $100 price to convert the time angle. Moving on to the subject of time we know that Gann placed great emphasis on the cardinal points of the solar year. These are the Vernal Equinox, Summer Solstice, Autumnal Equinox and Winter Solstice or March 21st, June 21st, September 21st, and December 21st respectively. 价格受到时间的影响，我们知道江恩非常强调太阳年的重要位置点，它们是两分两至，分别是3月21日，6月21日，9月21日，和12月21日。 江恩总是说一年的起点是在3月21日（不是1月1日），它是一个非常重要的季节性周期时间。这也是江恩所说的非常有趣的“圆中有方”。假如我们把每一个自然年（3月21日到3月21日）看成是一个完整的循环，因为这也是地球围绕太阳旋转了360度的时间距离。按照江恩的说法这里有个正方在这个轨道里然后我们就可以讨论一些非常独特的时间和正方形的几何信息了。 Lets build a hypothetical square running from Vernal Equinox to Vernal Equinox as our horizontal axis and we will use 0 to 100 as our vertical. If we draw in the two 45-degree Angles corner to corner we have a shape that looks like a box with an x in it. The two 45’s will meet at the exact center of both price and time at $50 on the Autumnal Equinox or September 21st. If we bisect this square again with a horizontal line going left to right at $50, and a vertical line going straight up from the Autumn Equinox we can create four smaller squares with half of the x already completed. If we complete these smaller boxes with the missing 45-degree line we will find that these points come out at $25 and $75 in price and also 25% and 75% in time or Sumer Solstice to Winter Solstice (June 21st to December 21st). 让我们建立一个假想的方形从春分运行到春分作为我们的水平轴，然后用0—100作为我们的垂直轴，假如我们画两条45度的对角线，看起来就象一个盒子里有个十叉，两个45度的线的交点精确的落在时间和价格的中心位置，分别是50和9月21日秋分。假如我们再次以通过50的水平线从左到右将这个方型切开，然后再通过秋分点垂直分割就得到四个小一点的方形，假如我们用45度的暗线对角线来对小方做分割，就可以找到25和75的价格和25%和75%的时间，或者夏至到冬至（6月21日-12月21日）。 假如我们用这四个点，分别是25和6月21日，75和6月21日，25和12月21日，75和12月21日，并做成一个新的方形，我们就会发现我们这个新的方形刚好在尺寸上是我们原先方形的一半大小，而它的几个点都正好落在时间和价格的1/4位置上。 Our new square also maintains the exact center of our old square at $50. This new square is now an exact musical octave of the old square because it’s based upon powers of 2 or is exactly ? our old square. This tells us that if we want to find a square that is within our old square that we will only find it between the two Solstice points in the year! If we wanted to enlarge the original square (to find an outer square) we would again follow the natural law of the musical octave, i.e. powers of 2. The first part of the problem is easy because we know that the next square is going to be twice as large as our old square. So this means that we are moving up from a one-year square to a two-year square in terms of time but this does not answer where in time this new square begins and ends. 我们得到的这个新的方图的中心依然还在原来方图的50这个位置上。这个新的方形现在和老的方图之间存在了一种音乐上的八阶和谐关系，因为它是在相对之间存在2的幂和其倒数1/2的关系。这就告诉我们假如我们想要在原来的方形里找到一个方图我们仅仅需要在一年中的两至日之间去找，而我们如果想扩大这个原先的尺寸（为了找外面的方形），我们还是要再次跟随音律的那种和谐自然法则，比如2的幂。 问题的第一部分是很容易的，因为我们知道这个方形将会比我们原先的方形大两倍。所以这个意思是说我们从时间角度上就从一年的方形上升为两年的方形，但是这里没有回答这个时间从那里开始从那里结束。 要想计算这个大一点的方形从那里开始从那里结束，我们就不得不使用“源头如何则支流如何”。另外，当我们构筑小一点的方形时，我们发现它是存在大方形内部的25%和75%的时间点上，因此3月21日到3月21日可以看成是上述大方形的1/4点。在一年的四方形里，时间的1/4是90度或者91.3125太阳天数，这个意思就是说这个1/4长度的时间在哪个大一点的方形里应该是180度或者182.625太阳天数，应该是2倍于它内部方形的大小。假如我们从小的这个方形上的时间点上加上和减去180度或等同的天数，我们就可以找到两年的方形开始和终结点是在秋分，用同样方法，我们可以找到4年，8年，16年的方形。 Getting back to the inner squares, a 90-degree square (1/2 of our 180-degree Summer Solstice to Winter Solstice and winter back to summer circle) would begin and end 45-degrees after the Sumer Solstice and 45-degrees before the Winter Solstice because 45 is ? of 180. This would be 45.65 days or ? of 182.625. So this means we would have another (90-degree) square running inside the (180-degree) Solstice squares beginning on August 5th and ending November 5th. Then just as we have two 180-degree Solstice squares running from Summer to Winter, then Winter back to Summer, we also have four 90-degree squares running from August 5th to November 5th, November 5th to February 5th, February 5th to May 5th and May 5th 回到内方形，一个90度的方形（是夏至到冬至冬夏循环180度的一半）将在夏至后开始和终结45度并在冬至前开始和终结另一个45度，因为45度是180的1/4。这也等于45.65天等同于182.625的1/4。所以这意味着我们可以在两至间运行的方形（180度）内部运行另一个90度的方形，它开始于8月5日结束于11月5日。这样我们有两个180度的两至点方形从夏季运行到冬季，然后再从冬季返回到夏季，我们同样也得到4个90度的方形分别是从8月5日到11月5日，从11月5日运行到转年的2月5日，2月5日到5月5日，5月5日回到8月5日。 “ Within the circle forms the square, there is an inner circle and an inner square, as well as an outer square and an outer circle which prove the Fourth Dimension in working out price movements”. “在一个圆里可以构筑一个方形，那么一个内圆里就有一个内方，同样道理一个外圆里外边还有外方，这就证明了第四度空间可以计算价格的运动”  二、MEASURING TIME Man first learned to record and measure time by the use of the sun dial, and be dividing the day into 24 hours of 15 degrees in longitude. The reflection of the geometrical angle on the sun dial indicated the time of day. Since all time is measured by the sun, we must use the 360 degree circle to measure time periods for the market, but remember you must always begin to count time in days, weeks and months from the extreme high and extreme low levels, and not from exact seasonal or calendar time periods. 45 days is 1/8 of a year, 90 is 1/4 of a calendar year, or a square, 112 1/2 days is 90 plus 22 1/2, 120 is 1/3 of a circle and a triangle. 135 is 90 plus 45. 150 is 90 plus 60. 157 1/2 is 135 plus 22 1/2, 165 is 120 plus 45. 180 is 1/2 of a circle, or opposite to 0 the starting point. Very important for change in trend. 202 1/2 is 180 plus 22 1/2, 225, a 45 degree angle is 180 plus 45. 240, a triangle, is 2 times 120. 247 1/2 is 225 plus 22 1/2. 270 is 3/4 of a circle and 3 squares of 90. 292 1/2 is 270 plus 22 1/2. 315 is 270 plus 45. 337 1/2 is 315 plus 22 1/2, and 360 degrees is the complete circle. You measure weekly and monthly time periods in the same way as you do the days and watch all of these important time angles for changes in trend. 人类首先学会使用日晷（太阳刻度盘）记录和测量时间，并把在黄经上15度的一天划分为24小时。在日晷上太阳的几何投影指示出了一天的时间。因为所有时间都是使用太阳来测量的，我就必须使用360度圆来测量市场的时间周期，但是要记住，你必须总是要从极端最高和最低点使用日，周，和月来计量时间，不要从精确的季节性的或者用日历时间周期作为起点。 45天是一年的1/8，90是一个历法年的1/4，或者一个直角，112.5天 270是一个圆的3/4或者3个90度直角。292.5是270加22.5。315是270加45。337.5是315加22.5，360是完整的一个圆。你可以使用测量日线同样的方法来测量周线和月线周期并关注所有对于趋势变化来说重要的时间角度。 You can make up a square of 52 for time and price. If you want to use eggs at 10 points per day, the top of the first line would be 520 price, the second 1040, the third 1560, and the top of the 10th line would be 5200, the top of the 11th line would be 5720. 你可以制作一个时间和价格的52方图。假如你设置蛋的价格速率为每天10点，第一线的顶端就是520的价格，第二线的顶端是1040，第三线是1560，第10线的顶端是5200，第11线的顶端是5720。因为一年是365.25天，意味着太阳覆盖360度一周的循环，使得从任何重要的顶部和底部开始的每一个12个月周期的末尾都成为观察重要的趋势变化的重要位置。一年被8分割，给出6.5周，13周，18.5周，26周，32.5周，39周，45.5周和52周。被3分割为17周和35周。 *
三、确认顶和底的方法WHAT YOU NEED TO LEARN TO BE SURE OF TOPS AND BOTTOMS 你需要学会哪些确认顶和底的方法 1. RESISTANCE LEVELS and PRICE BUYING POINTS from all the major tops and bottoms and minor tops and bottoms as well. Never overlook the last move up from the minor low and the last move down from the minor top. 从所有主要的顶部和底部与从所有的次级顶部和底部出发的抵抗水平和价格买入点都同样的重要。永远不要忽略最近的一次从次要低点的上升以及最近的一次从次要高点的下跌。 2. MINOR TREND INDICATOR on DAILY CHART should be kept up. 日线图表作为次级波动趋势的指示器要一直关注. 3. MAIN TREND INDICATOR. 4. BREAKAWAY POINT 5. HIGHER BOTTOMS and LOWER TOPS. Also 1st, 2nd and 3rd higher bottoms, and 1st, 2nd and 3rd lower tops. 抬高的底部和次高顶部。同样的第一，二，三抬高底部和第一，二，三次高顶部。 6. SECTIONS OF MOVE in TIME from MAIN TOP or BOTTOM. 从主要顶底的时间运动的分割。 7. SIGNAL DAY AT TOP OR BOTTOM on DAILY CHART, ALSO SIGNAL WEEK.日线图上的顶或底的信号日，同样在周线上也要注意 8. SINGLE, DOUBLE, TRIPLE TOPS or BOTTOMS. 单，双，三头或底 9. RULES for ACTIVE MARKET. 活跃市场的法则 10. NATURAL RESISTANCE LEVELS and TIME PERIODS from Master 360 Degree Circle. 来自于主宰360度圆周的自然抵抗水平和时间周期 11. FAST MARKETS and WIDE FLUCTUATIONS at the end of Bull or Bear Campaigns. Study these culminations in the past, then you will know what to do in the future. 快速市场和宽幅震荡在牛市或熊市的结尾发生。研究这些过去的顶点，之后你将知道未来该怎么做了。 12. GEOMETRICAL ANGLES -- These are the most important of all rules for determining both PRICE and TIME culminations. 几何角度---这是全部确定时间和空间顶点的法则中最重要的。 13. First change in the minor trend on the Daily Chart. 次级趋势的变化首先在日线上发生 Second, important change in the minor trend on the Weekly Chart -- More important than the Daily. 其二,重要的次要趋势的变化发生在周线图上, 比日线更紧要 Third, change in trend on the Monthly is still of greater importance. 其三,在月线图上的趋势变化是最重要的. Fourth, change on the Quarterly Chart is a 其四, 季节图表上的变化是主要趋势的一个重大的改变 Fifth, change in trend on the Yearly Chart is still a greater change in main trend. 其五,年线图表上的趋势变化也是主要趋势重大的改变. SQUARING TIME with PRICE on major and minor movements. Learn to use squares of all numbers both for Time Periods, Resistance Levels and Prices. 在主要和次要运动中去用价格平方时间 (价格平方和时间平方).学会使用所有数字的平方来研究时间周期和价格的两者阻力 Example: The square of 2 is 4 SEASONAL TREND-- Always consider whether the trend is running with the seasonal trend or opposite; then follow markets until change in trend is shown by Daily or other charts. 季节性的趋势 周期性的趋势---永远要确认趋势是否与季节性趋势吻合或正相反;之后跟随市场直到在日线或其他图表上显示出趋势的改变为止. Last but not least of all: NEVER GUESS or TRADE ON HOPE OR FEAR. When in doubt, get out. When you do not know the trend, stay out! Buy with a reason and sell on a rule or for a good reason. Learn to watch and wait. Take care of your health. Obedience to all these rules will bring success. 最后但不是全部：“永远不要主观猜测或者把操作建立在希望和恐惧上”有怀疑的时候就退出。搞不明白趋势的时候，就在外面观望！买入要有理由，卖出要有规则和纪律或者一个很好的卖出原因。学会观望和等待。照顾好你自己的身体健康。顺从于这些法则就会带来成功。 * Cotton Forecasting course, 水平所限，翻译错漏难免，请原谅请指正。 翻译后记： 对江恩原著的摘选，到此结束。技术方法是次要的，沿着江恩所列出的几个时间和周期测算的简单原则，足够应付一般的交易。在实际操作中的重点在什么地方，大家应该能看的出来。最重要的是每个人内心的对自我心态和心理活动的把握能力，认识自我的深度。这是内心之“道”，而技术是无法凌驾在此之上的。把各种技术分析都学的很精深，也就好像你拥有一台顶级的法拉利跑车，而赛道和比赛规则，就好像你实际股市操作中的买卖交易规则和纪律。真正能够驾驭这台跑车，遵循着比赛规则，能够保证沿着赛道走完全程，最终获得胜利的，是你的内心，你的心态，心理，你的精神灵性，是你驾驭自我的能力。 |
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