Snowden effect leaves ties with Moscow in ruins
US President Barack Obama's cancellation of the summit with Vladimir Putin is a turningpoint in the US-Russia relations. Obama, who once confidently told the Russians he wouldbe more flexible after the elections, has proven to be the opposite.
Domestic US politics has reasserted its primacy. The achievements in US-Russian relationshave proved limited to Obama's first term; in the second term, it will be treated as acountry of only marginal importance. The "reset" is history.
For a large and growing number of Americans, this is how it should be. Russia is woefullybehind the curve. Its economy is still based on oil and gas, likely to suffer greatly from theshale revolution in the US. Its regime, authoritarian and conservative, has just made a newenemy in the gay and lesbian community through its homophobic laws. US forces arepreparing to leave Afghanistan, and the value of Russian support, for which Moscow wasrarely recognized anyway, is going down fast.
Obama making only a cursory appearance at the G20 summit in St. Petersburg andstopping in Stockholm instead of Moscow, to meet with not only Swedish, but Baltic leadersas well, places the relationship with Russia on hold.
The historical record suggests that unless Moscow and Washington find a way tocollaborate, their relationship will drift toward more contention and conflict.
For groups of people in the two capitals, this is just as well as it meets with their domesticagendas, but the national interests of Russia and the US definitely suffer. After a while,something untoward usually happens, and the relationship jolts into prominence again, thistime for the wrong reasons.
How will Putin react to the perceived humiliation of the cancellation of the visit, and theunpleasant personal comments Obama has made about him? So far, the Kremlin hasprofessed disappointment, but displayed calm.
The two-plus-two meeting of US and Russian foreign and defense ministers in Washingtonon August 9 was not called off by Moscow. After the meeting, Foreign Minister SergeiLavrov spoke about continued bilateral cooperation on a broad range of issues.
Americans need to realize that the importance of the US presidential visit for Putin'sdomestic prestige is often overrated. True, Putin used to be very keen on his imageabroad; he used to cultivate foreign leaders; he sought to attract international mega-eventsto Russia. No longer.
Today, Putin's focus is very much domestic. He travels all the time, but almost exclusivelywithin his own vast country. He had certainly been looking forward to hosting Obama inMoscow, and desperately wanted to hand off the fugitive ex-CIA contractor to a LatinAmerican country. However, when Putin understood that the only way for Snowden out ofRussia would be into a US jail, he dug in his heels.
Now Putin will probably decide that no sustained cooperation will be possible with theObama administration on the issues most important to Moscow: economic links, armscontrol, and regional conflicts.
This conclusion is not only based on Obama's perceived domestic weakness. Moreimportant, as Yuri Ushakov, Russian presidential foreign policy advisor, has said, this isbecause Washington refuses to treat Moscow as an equal. It hits the core problem ofbilateral relations: fashioning an equal relationship between the evidently unequalpartners.
This promises a relationship which will grow both more distant and more hostile over time.Those with a particular grudge against Putin, or Russia, will find it easier to get support onCapitol Hill and even in the White House. On the other hand, Putin's opponents who seekmoral support in the West may not only be portrayed, but also persecuted as US agents.
The Magnitsky List of Russians banned from the US will grow longer and include moreimportant people. In response, the Kremlin's policies will become more restrictive.
The only solace is that the US-Russian relationship is no longer central to global security.Looking at the situation from a global geopolitical perspective, it is hard to escape thenotion that in the US-China-Russia triangle, Beijing has managed to benefit the most fromthe Snowden affair.
（Editor：YaoChun、Zhang Qian）
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