伪心理学:从星座到[手掌]~！

Psychology: Pseudo-Psychologies - From Planets to Palms
伪心理学：从星座到手掌

Pseudo-psychologies ("pseudo-" means false) are dubious and unfounded systems of predicting behavior that superficially resemble psychology. What are some of these pseudo-psychologies? Why do some people accept them as valid?
伪心理学表面看上去像是心理学，但它预测人类行为的机制既靠不住又没有事实依据。伪心理学有哪些经典案例？为什么人们会相信它们是真的？

Probably the most popular pseudo-psychology is astrology. It is based on the assumption that the position of the planets and stars at the time of a person's birth determines personality characteristics and affects behavior. Palmistry, another pseudo-psychology, claims that the lines in the hand are indicators of personality and the person's future.
最著名的伪心理学大概是占星术（星座论）。占星术的理论基础建立在这样一个假设上：一个人出生时行星的位置决定了这个人的性格并且会影响他/她的行为。手相是另一种伪心理学，声称手上的线条昭示了这个人的性格和未来运势。

Graphology, a third pseudo-psychology, indicates that personality is revealed by a person's handwriting. Although graphology is only moderately popular in the United States, some companies in this country use handwriting analysis to evaluate job applicants. Even though graphology is definitely valuable in detecting forgeries, careful test of accuracy in psychological studies have shown that graphologists score close to zero in rating personality.
笔体学是第三种伪心理学，认为一个人的字迹能够揭露性格。笔体学在美国还算流行，有些公司使用笔迹分析来评估应聘者。即使笔体学在鉴定赝品时非常有用，心理学的研究中对它进行的准确性测试显示，在评估性格这方面，笔体学的准确性几乎低至0。

Another pseudo-psychology, phrenology, was started in the nineteenth century by a German anatomy teacher, Franz Gall. His theory was that personality was revealed by bumps on the skull. Phrenologists assumed that parts of the brain governed different personality characteristics. It was thought that - like muscles - parts of the brain that were used more often tended to get bigger. In turn, these enlarged areas pushed on the skull causing bumps. With advances in neurology, this was shown to be impossible, and phrenology declined. Although some brain areas do have specific functions, they are not directly related to specific personality traits.
另外一种伪科学颅相学始于19世纪，发起人弗兰茨·格尔是一个德籍解剖学老师。他认为，颅骨上的凸起可以揭露性格。颅相学家假设大脑的不同部分控制不同的性格特征。就像肌肉一样，多次使用的那部分大脑会变得比其余的更大。接着，这些膨胀的区域对颅骨施加压力，造成凸起。神经病学的先进研究已证实这是不可能的，此后颅相学开始衰落。虽然大脑的某些区域的确有特殊的功能，但他们与具体的性格特征没有直接联系。

Why do these pseudo-psychologies survive and retain their popularity? One factor is the P. T. Barnum effect. P. T. Barnum, a famous circus showman, had a formula for success - "Always have a little something for everybody." Read the following personality description.
为什么伪科学依然存在而且如此热门？其中一个原因便是巴纳姆效应。巴纳姆是一个著名的马戏团演员，有个成功公式：“永远有一点对每个人都适用。”阅读下面的性格描述：

You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused energy, which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have some doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed-in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others opinions without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times, you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times, you are introverted, wary and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
你强烈的需要别人喜欢你，崇拜你。你倾向于对自己严格。你有很多还未使用的潜力，还没有来得及成为你的优势。你有一些性格上的缺点，但大体上你能补偿它们。外表上你遵守纪律，很有自制力，但内心里你会忧虑，没有安全感。有时你会怀疑你自己是否做出了正确的选择或者做了正确的事。你愿意接受一定程度的改变和多元，但一旦有条规限制，你会感到不满。你为你自己的独立思考能力而骄傲，并且在没有令人满意的证据时不轻易接受他人的观点。你认为过于坦诚地向他人暴露自己的真实想法是不聪明的。有时候你外向，和蔼，合群，但有时候你内向，谨慎，保守。你有一些非常不切实际的抱负。

Does this describe you? A psychologist read this summary individually to 79 students, who had taken a personality test. Of the students, 29 said the description was "excellent." 30 said it was "good," 15 said it was "average," but only 5 said it was "poor." Thus only 5 of the 79 thought the description - supposedly determined from the personality test - was inadequate.
这一段是否描述了你？一个心理学家单独向79名进行了性格测试的学生阅读了这份总结。其中29名认为这份描述“极好”地描述了他们的性格，30名认为“还不错”，15名认为“一般”，只有5名认为“不好”。79名学生中只有5名认为性格测试出具的这份结果不够好。

Barnum's method works because of the fallacy of positive instances. Because people tend to remember whatever confirms their expectations and forget the rest, an illusion of accuracy is created. If you still doubt this, read all 12 of the daily horoscopes in the newspaper for several days. You will find that the predictions of the other signs will fit you as well as your own. Although astrology has a highly developed system that makes it look like a science, studies have repeatedly shown it to have no scientific validity. In addition, astrologists still can't explain why the moment of birth should be more important than the moment of conception in determining personality. (It is most likely because the exact time of birth can be determined, but the moment of conception cannot.
巴纳姆的理论之所以奏效是因为正例谬误效应。人们倾向于记下那些符合他们期望的，无论那是什么，而忘掉剩下的，因此产生这份描述“准确”的错觉。（注：所谓的正例谬误效应，是指人们由于只关注与自己期望相符的信息而忽略其他信息所产生的知觉错误。在生活中，正例谬误效应有很多实际的体现，当你看表时，你是否会觉得“怎么老是11：11（或者是其他你觉得特殊的数字）”而实际上，如果你记录每次看表时的时间，你会发现这个特殊数字并没有比别的时间多。要克服正例谬误效应比较难，因为人天生喜欢相信神奇的事情，况且大多数情况下对方给出的都是一些取悦你的话（无批判接受顺言 uncritical acceptance），你是女的就说你气质好，男的就说你有天赋，人又是自恋的，想不相信都不行。）如果你依然对此持怀疑态度，请连续几天阅读报纸上12个星座的每日星座运势，你会发现其他星座的预测就像你自己星座的预测一样，与你的情况相符。尽管占星学有一套发达的系统，它看起来像是真正的科学，但研究已经一而再再而三的证实占星学和科学根本沾不上关系。而且，占星术依然无法解释在决定性格时，为什么出生时刻比怀孕时刻更重要。（最有可能的解释是出生时间可以被确知，而怀孕时间不能确定。）

For most people, astrology is a harmless and entertaining pastime. However, uncritical acceptance of any system leads to problems. Rather than trying to "put down" those who believe in these pseudo-psychologies, this article is trying to make you a more critical observer of human behavior and to clarify what is - and what is not - psychology.
对大多数人来说，占星术并没有害处，是用来消磨时间很有趣的方式。但是，不假思索的接受任意思想体系会导致问题。这篇文章的目的并不是试图打倒那些伪心理学的信徒，而是澄清什么是、什么不是心理学，并希望你在观察人类行为时能够更加谨慎。