[2014.12.16] The roots of Russia's Black Tuesday 五张图看懂卢布危机

The roots of Russia's Black Tuesday

朔源俄罗斯“黑色星期二
The Devil in the Data
数据中的魔咒

It is Black Tuesday on the Russian financial markets, with the rouble, equities and bonds all sharply down. The turmoil has spilled across the world, with several emerging markets, including Turkey, feeling the heat.
Here are five charts explaining what is happening in Russia and what to expect next.

这是俄罗斯金融市场的“黑色星期二”：卢布、股票和债券全线暴跌。动荡已经溢出至全世界，包括土耳其在内的数个新兴市场正感受其热度。以下就是可以解释俄罗斯现状以及今后预期的五张图表。


1) The rates rise that did not stop the rout

   On Monday night the Bank of Russia lifted interest rates to 17 per cent, up from 10.5 per cent, in an attempt to stop a steep depreciation of the rouble. But investors took it as a sign of panic, with the sell-off continuing in the early hours of Tuesday. The Russian currency broke the barrier of 80 against the dollar before paring some of the losses. It is hovering around 68 against the greenback, still 4 per cent below where it started the day.

1) 没有阻止溃败的升息
周一晚间，俄罗斯央行将利率从10.5%提升至17%，试图阻止卢布的急剧贬值。但是，投资者视此为恐慌的信号。结果，周二早盘，抛售继续。卢布对美元的比价兑破了80关口后收复了部分失地，目前在68一线徘徊，仍然比当天开盘时低了4％。



2) It's the oil price, stupid

    Those seeking an explanation for the rouble sell-off should look no further than the price of crude oil. ICE January Brent — the international benchmark — fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday, a five and a half year low and nearly half the $115 a barrel price of six months ago. Oil and gas account for roughly three-quarters of Russia's exports and more than half the government's budget revenue. Unless prices recover quickly — and there is no sign that they will — oil will continue to put pressure on the currency.

2)傻瓜，是油价
为卢布的抛售寻找原因之人最应当关注的是原油价格。周二，作为国际基准的布伦特原油明年1月份的交割价已经跌至60美元／桶的下方，为5年半以来的低点，接近6个月前115美元／桶的一半。石油和天然气约占俄罗斯出口的四分之三，占政府预算收入的一半还多。除非油价快速回升——不过，没有任何迹象表明这种事会发生——石油将继续施压于卢布。



3) Trouble ahead for inflation?.?.?.

   Inflation had already hit 9.1 per cent in November. But with the steep depreciation of the rouble feeding into higher import costs, economists fear prices could rise at a double-digit pace early in the new year. This would squeeze consumers’ income, weighing on consumption. It would also make the life of the central bank much harder: The Bank of Russia has a 4 per cent inflation target in the medium term, but this will be impossible to meet unless the currency is stabilised.

3) 今后的通胀麻烦
早在11月，通胀就已触及9.1%。但是，由于卢布的急剧贬值抬高了进口成本，经济学家担心，物价可能会在明年年初以两位数的速度上涨。这会挤压消费者的收入，从而打击消费；还会让央行的日子更加艰难。俄罗斯央行的中期通胀目标是4％，但是这将成为不可能完成的任务，除非货币得到稳定。



4)?.?.?.?and for the economy.

     The Russian economy has stagnated this year under the weight of the weakening rouble and western economic sanctions arising from the Ukraine crisis. But even a zero rate of growth would be hard to achieve next year were crude to remain where it is. In a statement this week, the Russian central bank said it expected the economy to contract by about 4.5 per cent next year and 0.9 per cent in 2016. The Bank of Russia predicts the economy will adapt and rebound strongly in 2017, growing about 5.6 per cent.

4)?.?.?.至于经济
俄罗斯经济在今年年内已经在卢布走弱和因乌克兰危机而引起的西方经济制裁的压力下出现停滞。但是，如果油价维持当前水平，即便是零增长也难以实现。本周，俄罗斯央行在一份声明中指出，预计俄罗斯经济明年将萎缩4.5％，2016年萎缩0.9％。之后，经济将在2017年有所适应并出现强烈反弹，增长约5.6％。



5) What next for the central bank?

    The Bank of Russia has spent much of this year trying to prop up the rouble, with its foreign reserves declining to roughly $400bn from $499bn at the start of 2014 and $419bn at the end of November. In November, governor Elvira Nabiullina chose to fully float the currency while retaining the right to step in to prevent a crisis. The central bank has since resumed its interventions but on a limited scale, preferring to use interest rates as its main line of defence. The failure of Monday night's rise to stop the rout may lead Moscow to think about a less orthodox response, however, with some economists already talking of capital controls as a possible option.

5)俄央行下一步怎么走？
俄罗斯央行在今年的大部分时间中都在试图支撑卢布，其外汇储备已经从年初的4990亿美元减少至4000亿美元。在11月结束时是4190亿美元。11月，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌林娜选择让货币完全浮动，但同时保留了介入市场防止危机的权力。自那以后，俄罗斯央行恢复了介入，但只是在有限范围内，而且倾向于把利率当作其主要防线。俄央行在周一晚间提升利率以阻止溃败的失败可能会让莫斯科考虑一种不那么正统的应对措施。不过，早已有经济学家在讨论把资本控制作为一种选项的可能性。

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FT社论 》》》

The rouble crisis reveals Putin's strategic failure
卢布危机暴露出普京的战略失败

Russia is in the throes of a full-blown currency crisis, with profound implications for its economy, its political system and its relations with the outside world. Even by the standards of emerging market currency meltdowns, the rouble's gyrations this week have been extreme, plumbing record lows that days — even hours — earlier would have seemed unthinkable.

俄罗斯正挣扎在货币危机的全面爆发之中，这对其经济、政治体制以及于外部世界的关系有着深远的含义。即便是按照新兴市场货币危机的标准来衡量，卢布在本周的波动之大，低点之后再现低点的表现，在几天前——甚至是几个小时前——似乎都是难以想像的。

The rout is caused by the plunge in the price of oil, Russia's major export, and exacerbated by western sanctions imposed in response to Vladimir Putin's military intervention in Ukraine. But the depth of the currency's slide also reflects the growing belief in financial markets that Mr Putin no longer runs Russia in its economic interests and is instead bent on pursuing illusory geopolitical goals. That is why the Russian central bank's drastic 650 basis point increase in base rates to 17 per cent yesterday not only failed to shore up the rouble but seemed merely to deepen the panic.

溃败源于作为俄罗斯主要出口商品——石油价格的暴跌，又因为西方为回应普京在乌克兰的军事介入而对其实施制裁而得以加重。但是，卢布的深跌亦反映出金融市场上一种日渐强烈的信念：普京已经不再以合乎经济利益的方式管理俄罗斯。相反，他正在追求虚无飘渺的地缘政治目标。为什么俄罗斯央行昨天将其基本利率大幅提高了650个基点至17％的做法不仅没能支撑卢布反而似乎仅仅是加深了恐慌呢？原因就在此。

The immediate options available to the Russian authorities to stem the rouble's decline are further interest rate rises, massive central bank intervention or currency controls. The first two could prove costly failures; the third would be a deeply unpopular and retrograde step for a government that has worked so hard to restore faith in the rouble after the turmoil of the 1990s. Something else needs to change.

可供俄罗斯当局阻止卢布下跌的直接选项，一是继续提高利率，二是央行的大规模介入，三是实施资本控制。头两个选项可能走向失败，而且代价高昂。至于第三个选项，对于一个一直在努力工作以图恢复市场在上世纪90年代动荡之后所失去的对于卢布的信心的政府来说，不仅非常不受欢迎，而且是在开倒车。因此，需要改变的是其他一些东西。

Under Mr Putin's stewardship, the Russian economy has evolved into a corrupt version of state capitalism. The opportunity for modernisation that might have reduced the country's reliance on oil and gas has been squandered. True, Russia remains an economy open to the world. But what makes this position unsustainable is the confrontation that Mr Putin triggered with the west by annexing Crimea and offering military support for separatist rebels in east Ukraine. The EU and US had no choice but to impose sanctions in response to this challenge to the European security order. The plunge in oil prices in recent weeks has now intensified the pain. Russia's economy is suddenly at a point that the architects of western sanctions had anticipated might take years to reach, if it could be reached at all.

在普京的治理下，俄罗斯经济已经进化为一种腐败的国家资本主义。本该降低他们对于石油和天然气依赖的现代化机会已经糟蹋了。诚然，俄罗斯仍然是一个向世界开放的经济体。但是，造成这种地位不可持续的是普京所挑起的俄罗斯与西方的对抗，这种对抗的起因在于俄罗斯对于克里米亚的吞并和对乌克兰东部的分离分子提供军事支持的行为。欧盟和美国没有别的选择，只能实施制裁，以回应对欧洲安全秩序的挑战。如今，几周来的油价暴跌强化了这种痛苦。俄罗斯经济突然间就处在了西方制裁的设计者原本希望可能会需要数年才会到达的时间点上。

Mr Putin therefore faces a stark strategic choice. He could reverse his aggression in eastern Ukraine. If he were to comply fully with the ceasefire he helped to broker in September, the west would lift the most recent banking and energy sanctions. While the damage from low oil prices would remain, the winding down of sanctions could gradually restore market confidence. The alternative is to continue on his current path. This would see Russia becoming an increasingly repressive, isolationist war economy, one more wedded to military adventures that buy short-term public support.

因此，普京所面临的是一种明显的战略选择。他可以逆转自己在乌克兰东部的入侵。倘若他准备完全遵守他在9月份协助达成的停火协议，西方会取消最近才对俄罗斯的银行和能源部门实施的制裁。即便是低油价的危害会持续一段时间，只要制裁能够逐渐取消，市场的信心也能够逐渐恢复。另一个选择是沿着当前的道路继续走下去。如此，俄罗斯将逐渐变成会一个愈发压迫，越发孤立的战争经济体，一个更加依赖能买来短时间内的公众支持的军事冒险国家。

Mr Putin doubtless believes that any compromise now with the west would expose him to a challenge from hardline nationalists. But sticking to his current course will bring greater risks. Failure to stabilise the rouble will lead to higher inflation and a deeper recession. The rise in living standards that has underpinned his popularity will go into reverse. Throw in capital controls and he will alienate the very oligarchs who have propped up his regime.

普京毫无疑问是抱着这样一种信念：与西方的任何妥协都会把他暴露给民族主义强硬派的挑战。但是，一直这样走下的风险会更大。如果稳定卢布的举措以失败告终，通胀必然高企，衰退必然加深。作为其深受欢迎之基础的生活水平的提高将走向逆转。一旦抛出资本管制这条白毛巾，他将自绝于支撑起自己政权的那些寡头。

The west should do what it can to encourage the Russian president to take the first option. It should leave him in no doubt that de-escalation in Ukraine will reduce international pressure on the Russian economy. The hope must be that, even now, Mr Putin is in a mood to change course. The fear is that his response to Russia's deepening economic crisis will be to take revanchism to a new and more dangerous level.

西方应当尽其所能地鼓励这位俄罗斯总统采纳第一个选项。这个选项应该能够让他对降级乌克兰的冲突将降低国际社会对俄罗斯经济的压力的这种观点没有丝毫的怀疑。此时此刻，必须做如此希望。那就是：普京能够愉快地改变当前的道路；担忧也不能没有，那就是：为了应对日渐加深的俄罗斯经济危机，他将把复仇主义带至一个全新的且更加危险的水平。