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Russian pensions 俄罗斯养老保险制度 An unaffordable system 养不起的制度 Russia’s prime minister signs a disastrous pension reform 俄罗斯总理签署非常失败的养老保险改革计划 Oct 6th 2012 | MOSCOW | from the print edition of The Economist 译者：BearDY Drink-as-you-go funding 把资金一口一口喝掉 VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a dilemma: how can Russia’s president fulfill his campaign promises to increase social spending, especially when they were directed toward his political base, while also ensuring that the country’s deficit does not become unsustainable? He is keen to prolong the past decade’s economic stability, which was his biggest electoral asset. 当下，弗拉基米尔·普京正在左右为难：要实现竞选承诺，增加社会福利开支，同时又要保证俄罗斯赤字尚可维持，俄罗斯总统如何是好，尤其当这些承诺的对象都是作为他政治根基的群体时，该如何应对？他希望把过去十年里经济的稳定状态延续下去——这份稳定是他在选举中最大的优势。 If the direction of the country’s pension system is any indication, Mr Putin and his advisers are choosing short-term social and political stability at the expense of long-term growth and investment. On October 1st Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister and former president, signed a long-expected strategy for reforming the pension system that would, among other things, nearly eliminate the funded component, in which workers pay into a personal investment account they claim upon retirement. The money freed up from this plan is supposed to plug the $50 billion hole in the pay-as-you-go system. 如果说俄罗斯养老保险制度的方向有所暗示的话，那么普京及其顾问正在选择以牺牲长期的增长和投资来换取社会及政治短期的稳定。10月1日，俄罗斯前总统、现总理德米特里·梅德韦杰夫签署了人们翘首以盼的养老保险改革战略，不言其他，该战略计划几乎摒除基金制，即工人们把资金存入个人累积账户里，退休后，成为他们所需的养老金。于是，此计划空出来的资金应该拿来填补现收现付制[1]留下的500亿美元的空缺。 The strategy signed by Mr Medvedev calls for the funded component to decrease from 6% to 2% of the overall pension system. (The plan is still preliminary.) At the moment, those funds are just 1.8 billion roubles ($58m), but they act as a catalyst for domestic investment and support a growing industry of fund managers. The funded pillar could also go a long way towards filling the gap in the Russian market for long-term financing, which is necessary for infrastructure development. With those funds gone, any notion of turning Moscow into a global financial centre—a favourite talking point of Mr Medvedev’s presidency—would probably be finished. 梅德韦杰夫签署的这项战略计划需要把基金制所占养老金整体的比例从6%降至2%。该计划仍是初步措施。现在，该项资金仅有18亿卢布（合5800万美元），然而这些资金促进了（俄罗斯）国内投资，支撑起了一个日益壮大的基金经理人行业。资金支柱也可能逐步帮助俄罗斯市场填补差距，资助长线融资——要发展基础设施，必然要有长线融资。假如没有了这些资金，任何把莫斯科转变为全球金融中心的打算——梅德韦杰夫就任总统期间最爱的话题——或许就消失殆尽了。 Virtually all Russia’s best economists, as well as the technocrats inside the finance ministry, have warned against cutting the funded pillar. Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister, has waged a campaign in the pages of Vedomosti, a newspaper, against the idea. Vladimir Nazarov of the Gaidar Institute calls it a “real disaster” that will only finance the pension fund’s current deficit for six years, after which the deficit will begin to grow again—and this time without the money in the funded portion as a stopgap. 事实上，俄罗斯所有顶尖的经济学家，以及财政部技术专家都提醒过当局不能破坏资金支柱。前财政部长阿列克谢·库德林在《俄罗斯商业日报》上攻击该意见。盖达尔机构成员弗拉基米尔·纳扎罗夫（Vladimir Nazarov）称之为“实实在在的灾难”，仅仅会为养老金现有的赤字负担六年的费用，六年后，赤字将再次上升——而这次就没有可供填补的资金了。 The only way forward, argue nearly all experts, is to raise Russia’s low pension age of 55 for women and 60 for men. Both the IMF and the members of Strategy 2020, an expert group formed by the Russian government, call for a gradual increase of the pension age to 63. 几乎所有专家都一致认为，唯一的出路只有提高俄罗斯公民领取养老金的最低年龄，现在的退休年龄是女性55岁，男性60岁。国际货币基金组织和战略2020成员（由俄政府组建的专家组）呼吁，把退休年龄逐步提高到63岁[2]。 The move is thought to be politically dangerous, if not impossible. Mr Putin has increasingly relied on the support of the rural population and industrial workers, as well as the 40% or so of the electorate who are elderly. One of Mr Putin’s many pre-election promises, now turned into official directives, was to keep the pension age intact. That order left the government with few options. 人们认为，这一举措即使能实现，也有较大的政治风险。普京越来越依赖农村人口和产业工人，以及约占选民40%左右的老年人。普京在选举前许下的诺言之一如今已成为官方指令——退休年龄保持不变。此项命令，让政府几乎别无选择。 Mr Medvedev and his team were thus handed an unenviable task. No one disputes that today’s pension system, created in 2002, needs some kind of reform. Part of the problem is demography. Declining birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s have left Russia with too few workers to support those in retirement; birth rates have stabilised in recent years but too late to affect the looming pension crisis. Today there are 100 workers for every 87 pensioners, says Evsey Gurvich of the Economic Expert Group, who led the Strategy 2020 pension task-force; by 2020, that figure will be 100 workers for 100 pensioners. 因此，梅德韦杰夫及其团队接了一个烫手山芋。现有的养老保险制度制定于2002年，这一制度需要进行改革，没人提出异议。部分问题出自人口。八、九十年代出生率走低，使得俄罗斯没有足够的劳动者支撑退休金缴费负担；近年来，出生率趋于稳定，但是要与一步步逼近的退休金危机抗衡，已经太晚了。据经战略2020退休金任务组领导、经济专家小组成员Evsey Gurvich称，现在，每100个劳动者要负担87个老年人的养老金；截至2020年，抚养比将达到每100个劳动者负担100个老年人的养老金。 Mr Gurvich warns of a creeping “gerontocracy”. He predicts a deepening of “paternalistic thinking”, in which citizens regard the state, and not themselves, as the source of their pensions. Perhaps that’s exactly what the Kremlin has in mind. Gurvich先生警告，俄罗斯政府可能会慢慢被养老问题占据。他预计，依赖政府的思维会加深，公民向国家伸手索要养老金，而不是自己。也许，克里姆林方面正是意欲如此。 from the print edition | Europe 译注： 1. 养老保险制度两次改革：俄罗斯对养老保险制度的改革分为两个阶段，1997-2001年为第一阶段，称为'新精算方式'改革；从2002年1月1日开始实行的改革被认为是第二阶段的改革，主要内容是建立三支柱的养老保险制度。 2. 提高退休年龄：俄罗斯男性平均寿命为59岁，如果退休年龄提高到63岁，很少人愿意缴费。 更多资料：http://euroasia./news/133749.htm |
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