The continued drop in commodity prices raised fears in the financial markets that global growth was slowing to a crawl. The result? Bond prices rose while stock prices fell. It is clear that there is overproduction relative to demand in most commodities. This is highlighted by energy. Prices continued to decline last week. Each commodity has its own dynamic but in virtually all cases production is increasing year over year at a rate surpassing demand growth. The key takeaway is demand and production are increasing. Major producers are finally cutting back production to levels equal to or beneath demand growth so that inventory levels stabilize or actually decline which is a prerequisite for pricing power moving forward. It will take time and patience. Unfortunately there is a lot of speculation in the commodity markets and continued weakness in prices initially led to margin calls and now outright liquidation. Markets typically move too far each way. Fear of a further collapse in the commodity markets has spilled over into other financial markets creating opportunities for investors who have been patient and maintained their liquidity. I have stated that lack of or no growth was my biggest fear. But let’s put all of this in perspective: the U.S. economy is improving led by the consumer; China reported 7.0% growth last quarter and its stock market has rebounded of late; Greece is settled, at least for now, lifting a big cloud over Europe which will lead to renewed growth; Japan is doing fine led by exports; India is continuing to accelerate and will grow over 7% this year however many third world countries are suffering. The world is growing over 3.0% this year which may be less than in the past. Global growth should improve in 2016, too. Don’t forget that the drop in oil prices recently from $60 dollars per barrel to around $48 per barrel will boost consumer disposable income around the world and lower inflationary expectations boosting bond prices from what they otherwise would be at this point in the economic cycle. Beside the consumer, the drop in energy and other commodity prices are good for corporate margins in the aggregate but of course not for the commodity producers themselves. By the way, we added to our energy shorts after it appeared that a deal would be reached with Iran, which we discussed in previous pieces. It was an easy call. Over 70% of companies reporting so far have exceeded their forecasts for the second quarter and maintained or raised numbers for the year. Not too bad. Rather than reviewing events by region as we have done in the past, I’d like to review my core beliefs and see if there are any changes that may influence my investment policy:
My beliefs remain for the most part intact. I continue to be pleasantly surprised by how managements are adapting to this global competitive environment. Management is everything to me. There is a reason why Alcoa, Dow Chemical, GE, Honeywell, Nucor, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo are best in class. Then take a look at Facebook, Google, Apple, Starbucks, Visa to name some more. I am long 25 of the best managements in the world who have winning long-term strategies regardless of the economic environment. And that is the key to be a successful investor. Be patient and maintain ample liquidity at all times to take advantage of market moves like last week. While change is in the air it does not happen overnight. Follow your beliefs and challenge them at all times. Invest in stocks, not markets. Invest Accordingly! |
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