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Free exchange 自由交流专栏 Burgernomics to go 该汉堡学闪亮登场了 Using McDonald’s to compare international productivity trends 用麦当劳的数据来比较国际生产率变化趋势 Jun 9th 2012 | from the print edition of The Economist 译者：终极奔跑者 A MCDONALD’S Big Mac contains 29 grams of fat and a surprisingly large quantity of useful economic information. Since 1986 The Economist has used the ubiquitous sandwich in serving up the Big Mac index, a lighthearted look at currency valuations. 一个麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡包含29克脂肪，还含有多得出乎意料的实用经济学信息。《经济学人》自1986年以来就开始用这种随处可见的三明治来提供一项巨无霸指数，这也是一种轻松愉快的货币估值方式。 The burgernomics craze is spreading. In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economics Research, Orley Ashenfelter of Princeton University and Stepan Jurajda of the Charles University in Prague use Big Mac production as a simple but powerful tool for examining productivity and welfare gaps in different economies. 汉堡学的流行正在蔓延开来。在一份新公布的国家经济研究局的工作底稿中，普林斯顿大学的奥利·阿申菲尔特和布拉格查尔斯大学的斯捷潘·尤赖达把巨无霸的生产作为一项简单而有效的工具，用以研究不同经济体间的生产率和福利差距。 Their work, like The Economist’s Big Mac index, grapples with the tricky business of international price and wage comparisons. At its heart is the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP). Economists reckon the price of a good should not vary much across efficient markets. Otherwise people would buy in cheap markets and sell in dear ones until prices equalised. PPP generalises this “law of one price”. Over the long run, it suggests, exchange rates should adjust so a basket of goods costs the same in different countries. If that basket is whimsically taken to contain only a Big Mac, then burger prices may be used for back-of-the-napkin currency valuations. In January a Swiss Big Mac cost $6.81, compared with $4.20 in America and just $2.44 in China, hinting at an overvalued franc relative to the dollar and an undervalued yuan. 他们的研究类似经济学人的巨无霸指数，都是设法解决棘手的国际价格与工资比较问题。其研究核心是购买力平价（PPP）理论。经济学家们认为，在有效市场中，商品价格应该相差不大。否则人们会在低价市场买入商品后在高价市场卖出，直至价格均衡。购买力平价法概括了这条“一价定律”。从长远来看，这意味着汇率会不断调整，使得一篮子商品在不同的国家所费相等。如果异想天开地让这个篮子里只装一个巨无霸汉堡，那么我们就会用汉堡的价格在纸巾背面对货币进行估值。1月份，一个巨无霸在瑞士售价6.81美元，与之相比在美国售价4.20美元，中国只要2.44美元。这暗示着瑞士法郎相对于美元估值较高，而人民币估值较美元低。 Economists use PPP to provide better comparisons of welfare across countries than can be gleaned from simply converting wages at market exchange rates. Exchange rates should adjust so that workers making traded goods are paid according to their productivity. But firms that sell non-traded goods and services must compete with firms in the tradable-goods sector for labour. So a country with high-productivity exporting firms will have high wages across all sectors—including those, like hair-cutting, where productivity differences between rich and poor countries are small. As a result, the cost of living is higher in rich countries, and simple exchange-rate adjustments overstate real welfare differences. On an exchange-rate basis, the average American is 35 times richer than the average Indian. On a PPP basis, however, taking account of the lower cost of living in India, American income is just 13 times higher. (The World Bank maintains a PPP database for some 180 countries.) 经济学家利用购买力评价法提供国家间的福利比较，这比简单地按照市场汇率转换工资所能收集到的比较结果更好。汇率应该得到调整，使得生产贸易品的工人能够按他们自己的生产力领工资。但是销售非国际贸易商品或服务的公司一定会和国际流通商品领域的公司争抢劳动力。所以在一个拥有众多高生产率出口公司的国家，所有领域的工资都会很高——包括像理发这样富国穷国间生产率差异很小的领域。这样的话在富裕国家的生活成本会更高，而且单纯的汇率校准会夸大实际的福利差距。如果以市场汇率为基础，普通的美国人比普通的印度人要富裕35倍。然而，如果以购买力平价为基础，把印度较低的生活成本考虑在内的话，美国人的收入仅仅高出印度人13倍。（世界银行所拥有的约180个国家的数据库都是以购买力平价为基础的） Unfortunately, PPP adjustments are hard to calculate. Residents of different countries buy different combinations of goods and services, or similar items with subtle variations in quality. To get around such problems Messrs Ashenfelter and Jurajda focus on a single company. All McDonald’s employees turn similar ingredients into Big Macs, which are more or less identical everywhere (although India’s Maharaja Mac is made from chicken, not beef). Sandwiches are produced according to a rigidly uniform process detailed in a 600-page manual. The company’s reputation depends on its ability to deliver identical burgers in every city: an ideal environment for global productivity comparisons. 遗憾的是，购买力平价的汇率校准很难计算。不同国家的居民会购买不同组合的商品和服务，或是购买只有微小品质差别的类似的商品。为了解决这样的问题，阿申菲尔特先生和尤赖达先生把研究重点集中在一家公司上。麦当劳的所有员工会把相近的食材做成巨无霸汉堡，而且巨无霸在全世界多多少少都是一样的（尽管印度的王公巨无霸是用鸡肉做的，不是用牛肉）。这种三明治会按照一套严格统一的生产流程烹饪出来，相关细节都在一份600多页的指导手册中。麦当劳公司凭借其在每一个城市提供相同汉堡的能力而声誉卓著：这也是比较全球生产率的理想环境。 To make such comparisons, the authors gather data on McDonald’s wage rates (the McWage) and Big Mac prices. Their efforts began in 1998 in 13 mostly rich countries but have since expanded to include more than 60. Data have been collected annually since 2007, and will be available publicly in future, according to Mr Ashenfelter. Prices and wages are collected from two or more stores in the capital city of smaller countries and from multiple cities in larger ones, including China. 为了进行上述比较，工作底稿的作者们收集了麦当劳工资率（麦工资）和巨无霸的价格两项数据。他们于98年开始在13个最富裕的国家展开工作，至今已扩展到60多个国家。阿申菲尔特先生表示，自2007年起他们每年都会收集相应数据，今后这些数据将会公开。对较小的国家，价格和工资的数据采集自首都的两家或两家以上的分店。较大的国家，包括中国，数据采集自多个城市。 Supersizing pay rates 超大化的薪酬率 Converting McWages into a common currency generates a surprisingly good picture of international differences in the cost of labour for simple, well-defined tasks. McWages are roughly comparable across the rich world (see chart, left panel), though rigid minimum-wage laws in western Europe make it a bit of an outlier. Among emerging economies, wages vary from 32% of the American level in Russia to about 6% in India, enormous gaps for functionally identical work. 将麦工资转换为一种通行货币生成了一张出奇漂亮的图表，可以展现对于简单而明确的任务所需劳动力成本的国际差异。在富裕国家之间，麦工资大致相若（见左侧面板图表），尽管西欧严格的最低工资法使得西欧的麦工资有点像离群值。在新兴经济体中，工资从占美国水平32%的俄罗斯到占美国水平6%的印度不等，对于功能相同的工作也有巨大的差异。 Dividing the McWage by the local price of a Big Mac gives what the authors call Big Macs per hour (or BMPH). This statistic represents an alternative, PPP-like calculation of the real wage, taking account of the local cost of goods. Labour costs represent more than half the price of a Big Mac. 将麦工资除以当地的巨无霸价格得到的就是底稿作者所谓的每小时巨无霸数（英文缩写BMPH）。该数据代表了一项可选的、考虑当地商品成本、类似购买力平价的实际工资计算方法。劳动力成本代表了过半的巨无霸价格构成。 Workers in less productive economies earn lower wages, but their Big Macs cost less to produce. The gap in worker welfare between rich and poor countries is therefore smaller than exchange rates suggest. In China, for instance, the exchange-rate-adjusted McWage is 11% of that in America. The BMPH real wage shows a much smaller gap. BMPH also erases the seeming advantage conferred on workers by western Europe’s minimum wages. 在生产率较低的经济体中，工人们挣的工资较低，但他们的巨无霸的生产成本也较低。因此富国穷国之间的工人福利差距比市场汇率所示的要小。比如在中国，按市场汇率校准的麦工资是美国的11%，但每小时巨无霸数所示的实际工资差距要小得多。每小时巨无霸数同样也会消除由西欧最低工资给当地工人们带来的表面上的优势。 Both versions of the real wage show large gaps in pay for similar work across economies. These are due, the authors reckon, to variation in “total factor productivity” (TFP) or the efficiency with which an economy transforms raw inputs into final goods. An estimate of TFP derived from their McWage analysis closely matches economists’ estimates by more traditional means. 两种版本的实际工资都显示了在不同经济体间对相似工作较大的薪酬差距。作者认为这些差距是因为“全要素生产率”（TFP）的不同或一个经济体将原料转换为最终商品效率的不同。从麦工资分析中提取的对全生产要素的估计十分接近经济学家利用传统方法所做的估计。 A quick look at fast-food wages can shed light on the globe’s vast gulfs in productivity and welfare. Those gaps are shrinking, and not simply as a result of rapid emerging-market growth. 对快餐工资的快速浏览可以揭示出全球在生产率和福利水平上的巨大差距。这些差距在逐渐缩短，缩短的差距并不仅仅是新兴市场快速增长的结果。 Between 2000 and 2007 America’s McWage rose by 13% while the Big Mac price jumped by 21%, resulting in a net tumble in the BMPH real wage of 7% (see chart, right panel). Meanwhile, the BRICs advanced as McWages grew faster than Big Mac prices. The BMPH jumped by 53% in India, 60% in China and 152% in a Russian economy recovering from financial crisis in 1998. The going has been slower since then. Russia and China managed gains from 2007 to 2011. Most others did not, as food prices rose faster than McWages. Data gathered this summer for the 2012 calculations may show a further slowdown. Bad news for an emerging world still hungry for better living standards. 从2000到2007年，美国的麦工资上涨了13%，而巨无霸的价格却上涨了21%，导致每小时巨无霸数所示的实际工资净跌了7%（见右面板图表）。同期金砖四国因麦工资上涨高于巨无霸的价格上涨所以实际工资得以增加。从98年金融危机中逐步复苏之后，印度的每小时巨无霸数上涨了53%，中国上涨了60%，俄罗斯上涨了152%。自此以后的增长都较为缓慢。从2007到2011年，俄罗斯和中国成功实现了增长。其他国家大多数则因食物价格上涨快于工资上涨而并未实现增长。今夏为2012年的估算所采集的数据可能会显示出进一步增速放缓。这对一个渴望更高生活水平的新兴世界无疑是一个坏消息。 —————————————————————————————————————— 注释： ◎Working paper 工作底稿(working paper) 亦称“工作底表”。将一定期间计算所得的资料或调查搜集得到的资料汇集一起，为取得一定数据而进行调整、试算、分析的一种表式。 关于Burger&Sandwich ◎Hamburger，或简称Burger，真正指称的不是面包夹内容物，而是那块圆形的肉饼，所以一块圆形的油炸碎肉饼（wikipedia原文：a cooked patty of ground meat ）无论是装盘配菜（此用法在英国常见），还是夹面包（bun），都叫做Hamburger。它的词源来自于德国城市汉堡，原意是指一种Hamburg steak，汉堡风格的牛排。 ◎Sandwich，指的是面包和配菜/肉一起吃，（所以Hamburger如果指肉饼夹面包，是Sandwich的一种）。最常见的是两片或更多片面包夹着内容物，但是单片面包上面放着菜/肉的也算作一种Sandwich，叫做open sandwich；而现在流行的饼卷菜/肉也是一种sandwich。 文章中统一按字面翻译。不作其他处理。 ◎Purchasing power parity 购买力平价法 其研究的基本思路就是通过价格调查，测算不同国家货币购买力之间的真实比率，从而取代汇率，把某项经济指标转换成以某一基准货币或国际货币为基础的指标。 ◎Total Factor Productivity 全要素生产率 又称为“索罗余值”，最早是由美国经济学家罗伯特.索罗（Robert M.Solow）提出，是衡量单位总投入的总产量的生产率指标。即总产量与全部要素投入量之比。全要素生产率的增长率常常被视为科技进步的指标。全要素生产率的来源包括技术进步、组织创新、专业化和生产创新等。产出增长率超出要素投入增长率的部分为全要素生产率（TFP，也称总和要素生产率）增长率。 ◎The law of one price 一价定律，即绝对购买力平价理论，简单的表述为：当贸易开放且交易费用为零时，同样的货物无论在何地销售，其价格都相同。这揭示了国内商品价格和汇率之间的一个基本联系。 ◎Back-of-the-napkin 字面义为餐巾纸的背后，引申为以简明直观的形式演绎深奥的理论。拉弗曲线最初就是阿瑟·拉弗为兜售自己的观点而在餐桌上用餐巾纸为福特总统助手切尼所画的一条缭草的曲线。 |
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