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Weather derivatives 天气衍生产品 Come rain or shine 阴晴无忧 The outlook for the business of hedging against the elements 天气风险管理行业的前景 译者：西米 WEARING lots of layers and a decent waterproof coat is one way to guard against changeable weather. Firms facing losses because of a big freeze or baking sun do not have that option. Insurance companies have long offered cover against flooding, hurricanes and other catastrophes. For less calamitous changes in the weather, derivatives are a better option. 当天气多变的时候，人们一般会多穿几层衣服，再加上一件防水性能好的外套。但企业没法用这样的办法来对付由于大冷大热带来的生意损失。保险公司对洪水、飓风及其它毁灭性灾害提供保险的历史已很久了，但是对于那些危害性没有那么大的天气变化，利用衍生金融工具是更佳的选择。 This is still a “niche market”, says Tim Andriesen of CME Group, the exchange where most weather contracts are traded. According to the Weather Risk Management Association, an industry body, the value of trades in the year to March 2011 totalled $11.8 billion, nearly 20% up on the previous year, though far below the peak reached before the financial crisis took the steam out of the business. In 2005-06 the value of contracts had hit $45 billion. 目前大部分的“天气合同”是在芝加哥商品交易所（CME）进行交易的。CME的提姆安德里森说，这个市场仍然是个“小众市场”。据行业组织“天气风险管理协会”说，在截至2011年3月的会计年度中，交易总额是118亿美元，比上一年增加近20%，但比起2005-2006高峰年度的450亿美元要少得多了。最近几年的金融危机影响了这门生意。 Weather derivatives had an inauspicious start: the first trade was done by Enron in 1997. The instruments were initially used by American energy companies to hedge against the effect that unseasonal temperatures could have on gas sales. But abundant shale gas in the United States has rendered hedges against mild weather less important. 天气衍生产品市场刚诞生就不太走运：第一笔交易是安然公司在1997年做成的，那时的天气衍生工具是为美国能源企业用来对冲失常气温对天然气销售的影响。但后来美国充足的页岩天然气使得这种对冲措施变得不太重要。 Energy companies are still the biggest users of these trades and contracts based on temperatures continue to be the most popular form of weather derivative. But Europe is now the largest market, according to Jürg Trüb of Swiss Re, a reinsurer. And demand for sophisticated and flexible over-the-counter products, which involve other variables such as rainfall, snow and sunshine and are tailored to meet customers’ specific needs, are growing far more quickly than standardised, exchange-traded contracts. 能源企业仍然是这类交易的最大用户，基于气温变化的对冲合同仍然是天气衍生产品的主要形式。但是，据分保公司Swiss Re的朱尔格特鲁伯说，现在欧洲成了最大的市场。此外，对复杂和灵活的场外柜台交易产品的需求比对标准的交易所场内交易合同的需求增长快得多。这些柜台交易的产品涉及其他的一些变数，如雨、雪、晴天等，并且可以根据顾客的特定需要来设计。 The weather-derivatives industry hopes that farmers will pile in to purchase hedges against sun and rain that can affect the size of their harvest. Subsidised government-insurance schemes offer them some reassurance already, but derivatives can fill gaps or boost coverage. Big construction companies, with tight deadlines and costly penalty clauses, are also turning to derivatives. So too are retailers and companies that run big outdoor events beholden to the weather. Online providers such as CelsiusPro and eWeatherRisk offer small businesses simple and relatively cheap weather-risk coverage. 天气衍生产品行业希望农民能进入这个市场，购买对冲产品以对付旱涝等影响产量的问题。受到贴补的政府保险计划已经给农民提供了某种保障，但衍生产品还是可以补缺拾遗或加大投保金额。那些受严格的工期和高额误期罚款制约的大建筑企业，以及那些在户外组织受天气影响的大型活动的零售商等，也正在进入天气衍生产品市场。一些公司，如CelsiusPro 和eWeatherRisk等，给小企业提供可以在网上购买的相对便宜的天气风险管理产品。 But widening the industry’s appeal further may be tricky. In many instances the direct correlation between weather and revenues is not obvious. And collecting current and historical weather data to calculate risks is harder in Africa or India, both regarded as potentially big markets. 但是，进一步扩展这个行业的业务范围并不容易。在很多情况下，天气和运营收入的直接关系不是那么明显。此外，在非洲和印度这些地方，更难收集历史和现今的天气资料以计算风险，尽管这两个地方都被看作是有很大潜力的市场。 As they look to renewables, it may be that energy companies are the best bet for future growth as well as current revenues. There have been some big transactions with companies that generate hydropower, which requires consistent snow and rain. Products based on sunshine for the solar industry are now available. And some firms are offering contracts to limit the exposure of wind farms to either a lack of puff or gusts that are too strong for turbines. This is helping energy firms to raise cash to invest in pricey wind projects by guaranteeing long-term returns from unpredictable blasts of air. If so, an ill wind might now blow some good. 由于可再生能源的发展，能源企业可能是天气衍生品市场的未来发展和近期收入的最佳源泉。已经有一些水力发电公司作了巨额交易，因为他们的生产依赖于持续的雨雪。为依赖于晴天的太阳能行业设计的产品也已经上市。还有一些公司给风力农场提供对冲合同，以减轻由于无风或风力过大带来的损失。由于在难以预期的天气条件下长期收益仍得到保障，能源公司可以更容易地集资来发展风电。如果是这样的话，所有那些不受欢迎的风可能都会给我们带来好处。 |
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