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Personal finance in Jane Austen 简奥斯汀时代的个人理财 Percents and sensibility 理性与感性 What did early 19th-century literary characters live on? 19世纪初的文学作品中的人物是靠什么生存的？ Dec 20th 2005 | from the print edition of The Economist 译者：kevinchen4me There is bitter humour in Lady Denham'sdismissal of her author's own class. As the daughter of a clergyman, who spenther later years living on the generosity of relatives, Miss Austen knew all toowell that wealth was the only real source of security. 这些都是奥斯汀小姐所处社会阶层中尖刻的幽默。身为一名牧师的女儿，但晚年依靠亲戚的慷慨资助来生活的她，奥斯汀小姐深知财富才是安全感的唯一来源。 Where did that wealth come from? Theanswer lies in the combination of Britain's growing commercial riches and itsgovernment's continuing poverty. There was really only one kind of investmentfrom the South Sea Bubble of 1720 to the railway boom of the 1840s: governmentdebt. British government debt was the only security traded on the StockExchange at its foundation in 1801, and remained so until 1822. Thanks to luckand skill, the government managed to finance a century's worth of horrendouslyexpensive wars in a way that not only did not cripple commerce but mobilisedcommercial resources for new challenges. 而这些财富又是哪里来的呢？这正是英国茁壮成长的商业财富和政府的持续贫困的结合。从1720年的南海泡沫事件到1840年代的铁路繁荣这段时间里，英国只有政府债券这唯一一种投资手段。英国政府债也是伦敦证券交易所在1801年创立之初直到1822年间唯一的一种可交易证券。得益于运气和技巧，英国政府才能靠着它筹措到那个世纪最可怕而奢侈的战争的经费，并且没有拖垮商业和贸易，反而调动起商业资源去迎接新的挑战。 The key piece of skill was the mechanismof “funding” that secured interest payments. When William and Maryre-established the Protestant monarchy in 1688, Parliament wanted both to shoreup the royal finances and establish its control over them. Funded borrowing didboth. Parliament passed taxes sufficient to pay interest on a certain amount ofdebt—just over ￡1m in the first instance—then tacked on a bit more tax to paydown the principal gradually. The monarch could borrow against this “funded”amount fairly easily, but found it hard to borrow more, which gave British debtunparalleled stability. In 1715-70 France reneged on the terms of its debt fivetimes; Britain never missed an interest payment. 这种技巧的法门在于用发行长期债券的方法来保证短期债券的利息支付。当威廉玛丽在1688重新建立起反抗政权的时候，议会想要巩固并控制皇家资产。发行债券就兼顾了这两种目的。议会通过了一项足以让他们付清相当数额债务的税，一审通过了一百万英镑，接着附加了一点税，就使得他们付清了所有的债务资本金。君王可以轻易地通过这种债券来筹资，但要借到更多就变得非常困难，这就赋予了英国政府债空前强大的稳定性。在1715-1770年期间，法国在此种债务上有过五次违约，而英国政府却从未错过任何一次利息的支付。 The big piece of luck was the South SeaBubble. In order to issue debt more cheaply, the government hit upon the wheezeof tying debt issues to the grant of trading privileges, which cost it nothingbut persuaded investors to part with their money at a lower rate of interest.In 1693 the going rate on government debt was 14%. In 1698 the East IndiaCompany was prevailed upon to lend ￡2m at a rate of 8% in return for anextension of trading privileges. This understandably appealed to ministers. In1711, the government raised a further ￡10m from the South Sea Company in returnfor exclusive trading rights to Spanish South America. Finally, in 1719, theSouth Sea Company proposed to take over the finance of the entire nationaldebt. The government agreed. 而最大的幸事莫过于南海泡沫事件。为了以更低的成本发行债券，政府刚好嗅到需要靠发行捆绑债券而获得贸易特权的需求的气息，而其成本只不过是要说服投资者将他们的钱分散到一个更低利率的投资上。在1693年，政府债的现行率达到了14%。到了1698年，东印度公司成功地以8%的利率贷出两百万英镑，从而获得了贸易特权的延期。而这正是官员们想要的。在1711年，英国政府以独有的南美洲地区贸易特权为代价，进一步向南海公司融资一千万英镑。而最终在1719年，南海公司提议接管所有的英国政府债，而政府同意了。 Fortunately for posterity, the directorsof the South Sea Company were greedy and incompetent. They promptly begantalking up the price of their shares with inflated estimates of the value oftheir trading and financing rights, which helped to fuel a dotcom-stylespeculative bubble. After the bust, the government went off the idea ofentrusting its finances to a single company. So it set about devisingsecurities that could sell into a broader market. 对后代来讲，幸运的是，南海公司的理事们是贪婪且无能的。他们立即开始大肆宣扬贸易和金融特权的价值膨胀预期对其股价的有利影响，这直接推动了一波互联网投机式的泡沫。而在破产后，政府放弃了单独依靠一家公司来筹资的想法，于是开始着手于设计一种能够销售到更广泛的市场范围中的全新证券。 Early flirtations with lotteries andannuities were generally disappointing. So were “tontines”, a sort of groupannuity in which many paid into a general pot, and the last few survivors splitthe income. What did sell, hesitantly at first, were bonds—albeit ones whichwere often sweetened with “douceurs” like a lottery ticket or two. 奖券和年金结合通常是会让人失望的。就好比唐提式养老金，一种投入到综合奖池中的集体年金，其幸存者瓜分所有的收入。这种证券通常在开卖之初会难以销售，即便它经常以一两张乐透彩券作为奖励来吸引购买者。 The government consoles itself 政府的自我安慰 In 1751 Henry Pelham's Whig governmentpulled together the lessons learnt on bonds to create the security of thecentury: the 3% consol. This took its name from thefact that it paid 3% on a ￡100 par value and consolidated the terms of avariety of previous issues. The consols had no maturity; in theory they wouldkeep paying ￡3 a year forever. 在1751年，亨利佩勒姆的辉格党政府齐心协力创造了横贯整个世纪的证券：金边债券。这名字源于这种债券表面上只为100英镑的面值支付3%的利息，实际上却带有各种前提条件。该债券并不成熟，理论上来讲，这种债券将需要永远为其面额支付每年3英镑的利息。 Between 1751, when the funded nationaldebt was only a tad over ￡70m, and 1801, when it climbed over ￡450m, thegovernment issued ￡315m of consols. Lord North particularly liked them becausethey carried a low nominal interest rate. He argued that lower rates werebetter because “it was the interest that the people were burdened with thepaying of and not the capital.” That said, Lord North issued new consols at ￡60or so, to create a 5% interest rate. Why he thought a discounted 3% bond wasbetter value than a 5% bond sold at par is unclear. 在1751年间，政府债的规模仅仅七千万英镑，但到1801年，这个数字直接攀升到了4.5亿英镑的规模，其中3.15亿是金边债券。腓特烈诺斯爵士独爱该种债券，因为它只负担了相当低的名义利率。他辩解道，低利率更好是因为人民可以用金钱而不是资本来承受这项支付。诺斯爵士发行了六千万英镑左右的金边债券而创造出了5%的利率。他认为已贴现3%利率的债券要比5%利率的未贴现债券要更好的理由还并不明确。 William Pitt the Younger, however,discovered the downside of discounted bonds when he tried to reduce thenational debt during the lull between the American war and the Napoleonic wars.In theory, the consols could be redeemed by the government at their par valueof ￡100. In practice, doing so would have given a windfall to bondholders:nearly double their capital as well as interest payments. Pitt instead createda sinking fund, using tax revenue to buy back bonds in the market. 然而小威廉皮特发现了诺斯爵士尝试要在美国战争和拿破仑战争的间隙减少国家债务时债券的折扣在下降。理论上来讲，政府能够以100英镑的面值赎回这些债券。而实际上，这样做给债券持有者带来了意外的收获：他们的资本和利息一样翻倍了。小威廉皮特重新发明了一种偿债基金作为其替代，利用税收来回购市场中的债券。 The sinking fund continued in operationthrough the Napoleonic wars, though in an increasingly bizarre fashion. By theend of the wars, the government was borrowing all of the money for the fundfrom the same markets that the fund bought from, in the deluded belief thatreinvesting the interest on the bonds held by the fund would yield compoundreturns sufficient to pay off the whole of the national debt. 虽然是在越来越多奇怪的风尚中，但偿债基金还是在拿破仑战争期间得以继续运转。在战争接近尾声的时候，政府为偿债基金基金借来了所有的钱，并且是从同一个市场里，只因轻信了用基金手上的债券进行利率再投资可以获得足以还清所有国家债务的钱的说法。 Clearly, the financial markets of JaneAusten's time were not sophisticated. But they were robust. There were noalternatives to easily tradeable, interest-bearing securities, and lots ofpeople wanted them. Merchants put spare cash into the funds, which, as theywould not otherwise have earned interest on the money, boosted their profitsand competitiveness. Some landowners traded back and forth between funds andland in search of better returns. Others saw the funds as a new way to maintaintheir wealth without farming. 显然，简奥斯汀时期的金融市场并不精致，但规模却很粗壮。除有息证券外几乎没有其他替代品可以进行交易，而且还有大量的人想要买它。商人们将多余的钱投入到基金中去，不然就没法获得利息从而使利润和竞争力得以提升。一些地主在基金和土地的投资间寻求更好的回报。而其他人则认为基金是一种让他们不用通过耕作也能保存财富的方式。 From a speculator's point of view, thiswas a lively market. The fact that early bonds had no fixed maturity dateensured that any change in interest rate was fully reflected in the capitalvalue of the bond. Rates, in turn, fluctuated in response to foreign affairs ingeneral and military ones in particular. When the British won a battle,investors anticipated the day that the government would stop issuing new bondsand turn to buying old ones via the sinking fund. Rates fell and values rose.When British forces lost, investors anticipated new issues coming to market,and the opposite happened. Compounding these movements were poorcommunications: nobody really knew what was going on in the wars. 从一名投机者的视野来看，这真是一个生气勃勃的市场。事实上却是早期的债券固定到期日的设计并不能将利率的变动完全地反映到债券的资本价值上去，而特别地，利率却是因为一般及军事影响的外交活动而波动的。当英国赢得了战争，投资者预期到了政府会停止发行新债转而通过偿债基金回购老的债券。债券利率就下降而价值上升。而当英国输了，投资者就会预期到新的债券将要发行，相反的情况就会发生。而这些活动之间是缺乏信息交流的：因为没人真正知道战争的结果会怎样。 One officer rushed from Portsmouth toLondon with forged dispatches proclaiming the fall of Paris and the rout ofNapoleon, while at the coffee houses his confederates sold into the risingmarket and netted about ￡10,000. Even with full information, early markets didnot always do what a modern trader would expect. In theory, the prices ofvarious securities should have converged around a general market interest rate.Not so in fact. William Fairman of Royal Exchange Assurance noted that “thevery great disparity between the current prices of different funds evidentlyshows that exact observers among the monied men are not numerous”. There wasalso a persistent fear that the government might have so over-extended itselfwith debt that a general failure of markets was inevitable. 一位官员带着伪造的文件从朴茨茅斯飞奔到伦敦，宣布巴黎失守拿破仑战败的消息，过了一会这位官员的同僚就通过向上升的市场中卖债券而赚了一万英镑。而就算信息是完全流通的，早期市场中的反应也并不总是像现代交易者所预期的那样。理论上来讲，各种证券的价格应当会围绕一个既定的市场利率上下波动。事实却不是那样，英国皇家交易保险公司的威廉费尔曼指出：“不同基金的现期价格的不一致显然告诉我们真正的交易规则遵守者并不大量存在于有钱人当中。”而且有一种持续的恐惧在于，政府有可能过分扩张它的债务从而使得市场失灵不可避免。 The despairing and the hopeful, thegreedy and those simply too lazy to farm all converged on coffee houses nearthe Royal Exchange to do business. Thomas Mortimer described the scene in“Every Man his own Broker, or, a Guide to Exchange Alley”: it consists of a medley of news, quarrels, prices ofdifferent funds, calling of names, adjusting of accounts, etc, etc continuallycirculating in an intermixed chaos of confusion. 绝望与希望，贪婪和懒惰，在伦敦皇家交易所附近的咖啡馆里杂糅在一起。托马斯莫迪莫尔在“每个人都是自己的经纪人，或是通往伦敦交易巷的引路人”中解释了这种景象：这个市场由小道消息、争论、不同基金的价格、各种被呼唤的名字、账户的调整等等因素组成，并持续循环在一种混淆与混乱的并行中。 While trading in the coffee houses wasopen to all, a booming industry of brokers and bankers arose to serve those whodid not wish to brave the hubbub in person. Jane Austen's favourite brother,Henry, started his own bank, though after it failed he reverted to the familybusiness and became a clergyman. In 1801, the Stock Exchange was founded as amembers-only institution intended to bring some order to the markets—and inparticular to ban from membership those who reneged on their deals. 当在咖啡馆中的交易向所有人开放后，另一种产业开始大受欢迎，经纪人和银行家开始去唤起那些并不是那么有勇气的人。简奥斯汀最喜欢的哥哥亨利创立了他自己的银行，当他失败后就回到家族生意中去了，然后成为了一名牧师。在1801年，伦敦证券交易所成立了，并只有公司可以作为其成员，这也是为了给市场带去一些秩序，特别地，也是为了取缔那些不遵守交易规则的成员。 By the end of the Napoleonic wars in1815, the debts of the British government reached ￡745m. But instead ofcalamity and national bankruptcy, the rise in debt simply brought a hunger formore investments. As the government itself stopped issuing new bonds, andstarted retiring old ones through the sinking fund, investors turned first toforeign-government securities in the 1820s and then to shares in the new,capital-intensive companies, such as railroads, leading the industrialisationof the 19th century. Both markets were highly speculative, to say the least.Foreign-government debt included bonds from one entirely fictitious country,Poyais, and most of the new industrial ventures failed. 在1815年拿破仑战争的尾声，英国政府债达到了7.45亿英镑的规模，不过排除大灾难和国家破产，债务的增长只提升了对更多投资的渴望。当政府自身已经停止发行新债券并开始通过偿债基金回购老债券时，投资者们在1820年代首先开始转向他国政府证券市场和新兴资本密集型公司的股份，比如引领了19世纪工业化的铁道工业。退一步说，两种市场都具有非常高的投机性。外国政府债甚至包含了一种几乎完全虚构的国家Poyais的政府债，而且许多新兴工业合资企业也失败了。 By then markets were big enough toabsorb the bumps, and their growth has supported a cornucopia of prosperityever since. Still, one shortage noted by Jane Austen in “Mansfield Park”arguably remains: “there certainly are not so many men of large fortune in theworld, as there are pretty women to deserve them.” 到那时市场已经大到足以吸收掉波动，并且其成长很好地支撑了从那时开始的经济繁荣。尽管如此，简奥斯汀在《曼斯菲尔德庄园》中所指出的一点不足也长时间处于争论中：“当然，那时的世界中确实没有那么多男人拥有巨大的财富，因为那是漂亮的女人所应得的。”
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