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The Economist explains
Why the Swiss unpegged the franc 瑞士为何不再让瑞郎盯住欧元
Jan 18th 2015, 23:50 by C.W. of The Economist
译者：老狒狒
IN THE world of central banking, slow and predictable decisions are the aim. So on January 15th, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly announced that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, there was panic. The franc soared. On Wednesday one euro was worth 1.2 Swiss francs; at one point on Thursday its value had fallen to just 0.85 francs. A number of hedge funds across the world made big losses. The Swiss stockmarket collapsed. Why did the SNB provoke such chaos?
在央行的世界中，缓慢且可以预测的决定是目标。因此，当瑞士国家银行（SNB即瑞士央行——译者注）在1月15日突然宣布不再以对欧元的固定汇率持有瑞士法郎（以下简称瑞郎——译者注）时，恐慌出现了。瑞郎出现了暴涨。周三的时候，1欧元还值1.2瑞郎；但是，到周四的时候，1欧元甚至一度跌至只值0.85瑞郎。世界各地有很多对冲基金遭受了惨重的损失。瑞士股市出现了暴跌。那么，瑞士央行为何要主动挑起这种混乱呢？
The SNB introduced the exchange-rate peg in 2011, while financial markets around the world were in turmoil. Investors consider the Swiss franc as a “safe haven” asset, along with American government bonds: buy them and you know your money will not be at risk. Investors like the franc because they think the Swiss government is a safe pair of hands: it runs a balanced budget, for instance. But as investors flocked to the franc, they dramatically pushed up its value. An expensive franc hurts Switzerland because the economy is heavily reliant on selling things abroad: exports of goods and services are worth over 70% of GDP. To bring down the franc's value, the SNB created new francs and used them to buy euros. Increasing the supply of francs relative to euros on foreign-exchange markets caused the franc's value to fall (thereby ensuring a euro was worth 1.2 francs). Thanks to this policy, by 2014 the SNB had amassed about $480 billion-worth of foreign currency, a sum equal to about 70% of Swiss GDP.
瑞士央行是在2011年引入汇率挂钩制的。其时，全球金融市场正出在动荡之中。在投资者眼中，瑞郎和美国国债一样，同是资产的“安全天堂”：买入这两种资产，你知道你的钱将不会再有风险。投资者喜欢瑞郎是因为他们把瑞士政府看作是一双安全的大手：比如说，政府运营着一套平衡的预算。但是，随着投资者涌入瑞郎，他们急剧地推高了瑞郎的币值。昂贵的瑞郎有害于瑞士，因为他们的经济严重依赖于对外贸易：商品和服务的出口超过GDP的70％。为了拉低瑞郎的币值，瑞士央行造出了新的瑞郎，并且用这些新造的瑞郎去购买欧元。外汇市场上瑞郎相对于欧元的供应增加造成了瑞郎币值的下跌（因而确保了1欧元值1.2瑞郎）。鉴于这一政策，至2014年年底，瑞士央行积累了大约4800亿美元的外汇储备，相当于瑞士GDP的70％。
The SNB suddenly dropped the cap last week for several reasons. First, many Swiss are angry that the SNB has built up such large foreign-exchange reserves. Printing all those francs, they say, will eventually lead to hyperinflation. Those fears are probably unfounded: Swiss inflation is too low, not too high. But it is a hot political issue. In November there was a referendum which, had it passed, would have made it difficult for the SNB to increase its reserves. Second, the SNB risked irritating its critics even more, thanks to something that is happening this Thursday: many expect the European Central Bank to introduce “quantitative easing”. This entails the creation of money to buy the government debt of euro-zone countries. That will push down the value of the euro, which might have required the SNB to print lots more francs to maintain the cap. But there is also a third reason behind the SNB's decision. During 2014 the euro depreciated against other major currencies. As a result, the franc (being pegged to the euro) has depreciated too: in 2014 it lost about 12% of its value against the dollar and 10% against the rupee (though it appreciated against both currencies following the SNB's decision). A cheaper franc boosts exports to America and India, which together make up about 20% of Swiss exports. If the Swiss franc is not so overvalued, the SNB argues, then it has no reason to continue trying to weaken it.
瑞士央行在上周突然放弃了这个上限，其原因有以下几点。首先，许多瑞士人都对央行构建如此庞大的外汇储备感到愤怒。他们说，这些新印制瑞郎的最终将导致超级通胀。这种担心可能是没有根据的：瑞士的通胀是太低而不是太高。但是，这是一个热门的政治话题。瑞士定于今年11月举行一次全民公投。如果通过，瑞士央行就难以增加外汇储备了。第二，瑞士央行之所以冒险激怒舆论，是因为本周四将发生的一件事：许多人希望欧洲央行引入“量化宽松”。量化宽松需要欧洲央行造钱以购买欧元国家的政府债券。这将压低欧元的币值，而欧元币值的降低可能需要瑞士央行印制更多的瑞郎来维持这个上限。但是，瑞士央行这一决定的背后还有第三个原因。在2014年中，欧元对其他主要货币都贬值了。作为欧元贬值的一个结果，（被迫盯住欧元的）瑞郎也贬值了：对美元贬值了大约14％，对卢比10％（尽管瑞郎在瑞士央行公布其决定后对这两种货币都实现了升值）。便宜的瑞郎有利于提高对美国和印度的出口，而瑞士对这两个国家的出口约占其出口总额的20％。瑞士央行指出，如果瑞郎不是被如此的高估，它就没有理由去继续维持瑞郎的弱势。
The big question now is how much the removal of the cap will hurt the Swiss economy. The stockmarket fell because Swiss companies will now find it more difficult to sell their wares to European customers (high-rolling Europeans are already complaining about the price of this year's skiing holidays). UBS, a bank, downgraded its forecast for Swiss growth in 2015 from 1.8% to 0.5%. Switzerland will probably remain in deflation. But the SNB should not be lambasted for removing the cap. Rather, it should be criticised for adopting it in the first place. When central banks try to manipulate exchange rates, it almost always ends in tears.
现在的主要问题是取消上限会给瑞士经济造成多大的伤害。股市之所以出现下跌，是因为瑞士企业将会发现，它们会更加难以将自己的产品卖给欧洲消费者（喜欢速降的欧洲人早就对今年滑雪季节的价格抱怨不已）。瑞银已将它们对瑞士2015年的增长预期从1.8%下调至0.5%。瑞士今后有可能仍旧处于通缩之中。但是，瑞士央行不应为取消上限的做法遭到指责。相反，它应当为当初设定上限的做法受到批评。当一国央行试图操纵汇率时，最后几乎总是以痛哭流涕收场。
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