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The new economics of oil Sheikhs v shale 中东土豪VS页岩新贵 译者：老狒狒 THE official charter of OPEC states that the group's goal is “the stabilisation of prices in international oil markets”. It has not been doing a very good job. In June the price of a barrel of oil, then almost $115, began to slide; it now stands close to $70. 欧佩克的正式章程声称，该组织的目标在于“国际石油市场的价格稳定”。它没有很好地完成这项工作。油价从今年6月份的几乎115美元／桶开始下跌，如今已接近70美元／桶。 This near-40% plunge is thanks partly to the sluggish world economy, which is consuming less oil than markets had anticipated, and partly to OPEC itself, which has produced more than markets expected. But the main culprits are the oilmen of North Dakota and Texas. Over the past four years, as the price hovered around $110 a barrel, they have set about extracting oil from shale formations previously considered unviable. Their manic drilling—they have completed perhaps 20,000 new wells since 2010, more than ten times Saudi Arabia's tally—has boosted America's oil production by a third, to nearly 9m barrels a day (b/d). That is just 1m b/d short of Saudi Arabia's output. The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus. 油价将近40％的暴跌，一部分原因在于疲软的世界经济，这使得石油的消耗量低于市场的预期；一部分原因在于欧佩克自身，即它的产量高于市场预期。但是，主要的推手是北达科他州和得克萨斯州的石油人。在过去的4年中，鉴于油价始终盘旋在110美元／桶左右，他们一直在从之前被认为是没有经济效益的页岩层中提取石油。这种疯狂的开采行为——自2010年以来，他们已经建成了大约20000口新油井，是沙特新油井的10倍还多——让美国的石油产量提高了三分之一，达到将近900万桶／天。美国增加100万桶／天的产量正是沙特所减少的。页岩人与中东酋长之间的竞争把世界石油市场推上了风口浪尖，使得石油的供应从短缺变为过剩。 Fuel injection 增添动力 Cheaper oil should act like a shot of adrenalin to global growth. A $40 price cut shifts some $1.3 trillion from producers to consumers. The typical American motorist, who spent $3,000 in 2013 at the pumps, might be $800 a year better off—equivalent to a 2% pay rise. Big importing countries such as the euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise. The falling oil price will reduce already-low inflation still further, and so may encourage central bankers towards looser monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will put off raising interest rates for longer; the European Central Bank will act more boldly to ward off deflation by buying sovereign bonds. 更加便宜的石油之于世界经济应如一针肾上腺素。40美元的下跌相当于将1.3万亿美元从生产商的手里转移到消费者的钱包中。以美国为例，一位普通司机2013年花在加油上的钱是3000美元，今年这部分开支可能会减少800美元，等于是薪水增加2%。欧洲、印度、日本和土耳其等石油进口大国正在享受从天而降的馅儿饼。由于这部分钱很有可能被花掉而不是躺在主权财富基金中，因此全球GDP应当上升。正在下跌的油价将进一步拉低早已处在低位的通胀，因此有可能鼓励各国央行采取更加宽松的货币政策。美联储将把加息的时间延后。欧洲央行将在采取更大胆的行动，通过购买主权债券，避免通缩。 There will, of course, be losers. Oil-producing countries whose budgets depend on high prices are in particular trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia's prospects darkened further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting on its debt. The spectre of defaults and the speed and scale of the price plunge have unnerved financial markets. But the overall economic effect of cheaper oil is clearly positive. 当然，油价的下跌也有一些输家。预算取决于高油价的产油国尤其不好过。随着俄罗斯的前景越发黯淡，卢布已在本周暴跌。尼日利亚已经被迫加息并贬值了本国货币奈拉。委内瑞拉看上去离债务违约又近了一步。违约的幽灵和油价暴跌的速度和深度让金融市场感到了不安。但是，有一点是很明显的：更加便宜的石油的经济总体效应是正面的。 Just how positive will depend on how long the price stays low. That is the subject of a continuing tussle between OPEC and the shale-drillers. Several members of the cartel want it to cut its output, in the hope of pushing the price back up again. But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut. Instead, the Saudis seem to be pushing a different tactic: let the price fall and put high-cost producers out of business. That should soon crimp supply, causing prices to rise. 正面效应的大小将取决与油价处于低位的时间长短。这正是欧佩克与页岩油开采商之间缠斗不休的关键所在。欧佩克的数位成员国想减少产量，希望再次将油价推升至原来的价位。但是，沙特似乎对上世纪70年代的一幕记忆由新。当时，油价的大幅上涨层促使大量资金投入新油田的开发，从而导致了长达10年的供过于求。如今的沙特似乎正在推行另一种策略：放任油价下跌，将高成本的生产商逐出这一行业。这种策略应当很快抑制供给，导致油价上涨。 There are signs that such a shake-out is already under way. The share prices of firms that specialise in shale oil have been swooning. Many of them are up to their derricks in debt. Even before the oil price started falling, most were investing more in new wells than they were making from their existing ones. With their revenues now dropping fast, they will find themselves overstretched. A rash of bankruptcies is likely. That, in turn, would bespatter shale oil's reputation among investors. Even survivors may find the markets closed for some time, forcing them to rein in their expenditure to match the cash they generate from selling oil. Since shale-oil wells are short-lived (output can fall by 60-70% in the first year), any slowdown in investment will quickly translate into falling production. 种种迹象表明，此种“逐出”策略已经付诸实施。专门生产页岩油的公司的股价持续低迷。许多公司已经债台高筑。即便是在油价开始下跌之前，大多数页岩油公司投入新油井的资金就已经多于从现有油井中获得的收入。鉴于收入正在快速减少，这些公司将会发现自己扩张过度了。一波破产潮很可能来临。反过来，这又会败坏页岩油在投资者中的声誉。就算有些公司能够熬过来，它们也可能发现，市场将对它们关闭一段时间，迫使它们放慢冒险的步伐，尽量量入为出。由于页岩油油井寿命不长（在第一年中，产量可能减少60-70%），任何的投资减速都将快速转化为产量的下降。 This shake-out will be painful. But in the long run the shale industry's future seems assured. Fracking, in which a mixture of water, sand and chemicals is injected into shale formations to release oil, is a relatively young technology, and it is still making big gains in efficiency. IHS, a research firm, reckons the cost of a typical project has fallen from $70 per barrel produced to $57 in the past year, as oilmen have learned how to drill wells faster and to extract more oil from each one. 这种“逐出”策略将是痛苦的。但是，从长期来看，页岩油行业的未来似乎是有保证的。将水、沙子和化学物品的混合物注入页岩层以释放石油的水力压裂法是一项相对年轻的技术，它仍然在高效地带来大笔财富。据环球通视预测，在过去的一年中，由于石油人掌握了更加快速的打井和从页岩层中释放石油的技术，一个典型项目的成本已经从70美元／桶降至57美元／桶。 The firms that weather the current storm will have masses more shale to exploit. Drilling is just beginning (and may now be cut back) in the Niobrara formation in Colorado, for example, and the Mississippian Lime along the border between Oklahoma and Kansas. Nor need shale oil be a uniquely American phenomenon: there is similar geology all around the world, from China to the Czech Republic. Although no other country has quite the same combination of eager investors, experienced oilmen and pliable bureaucrats, the riches on offer must eventually induce shale-oil exploration elsewhere. 将会有更多的页岩油油井等着引发当前这场风暴的公司去开发。例如，在科罗拉多州的Niobrara页岩层，在沿着俄克拉荷马州和堪萨斯州边界的密西西比河石灰层，开采已经在进行之中，而且周期有可能更短。同时，对于页岩油的饥渴也不仅仅是美国所特有的现象。从中国到捷克，全世界各地有着同样的地质结构。尽管没有一个国家能够想美国那样，同时拥有饥渴的投资者，经验丰富的石油人和头脑灵活的官僚，页岩油的财富效应最终必然会引发世界各地的开采热潮。 Most important of all, investments in shale oil come in conveniently small increments. The big conventional oilfields that have not yet been tapped tend to be in inaccessible spots, deep below the ocean, high in the Arctic, or both. America's Exxon Mobil and Russia's Rosneft recently spent two months and $700m drilling a single well in the Kara Sea, north of Siberia. Although they found oil, developing it will take years and cost billions. By contrast, a shale-oil well can be drilled in as little as a week, at a cost of $1.5m. The shale firms know where the shale deposits are and it is pretty easy to hire new rigs; the only question is how many wells to drill. The whole business becomes a bit more like manufacturing drinks: whenever the world is thirsty, you crank up the bottling plant. 最为重要的是，投资于页岩油的资金是以便利的小额增量形式进入这一行业的。尚未被开采产的大型传统油田往往位于难以进入的地点，要么在深海，要么在高海拔的北极，或者是两者兼而有之。日前，美国的埃克森美孚石油公司和俄罗斯的俄罗斯石油公司在北西伯利亚的喀拉海中，花了两个月的时间，耗资70亿美元，仅仅打了一口油井。尽管发现了石油，但是开发时间将长达数年，成本将达到上百亿美元。相比之下，页岩油油井的开采最短一周就能完成，而成本仅为150万美元。页岩油公司知道页岩层的分布地点，而且很容易租到新设备。唯一的问题是：到底有多少页岩油油井可供开采？整个行业越来越像饮料制造业：只要世界渴了，把灌装厂的马力开足就行。 Sheikh out 让酋长出局 So the economics of oil have changed. The market will still be subject to political shocks: war in the Middle East or the overdue implosion of Vladimir Putin's kleptocracy would send the price soaring. But, absent such an event, the oil price should be less vulnerable to shocks or manipulation. Even if the 3m extra b/d that the United States now pumps out is a tiny fraction of the 90m the world consumes, America's shale is a genuine rival to Saudi Arabia as the world's marginal producer. That should reduce the volatility not just of the oil price but also of the world economy. Oil and finance have proved themselves the only two industries able to tip the world into recession. At least one of them should in future be a bit more stable. 因此，石油经济已经变了。市场仍将受制于各种政治地震，如中东的战争，或者是迟到的普京盗贼统治的内爆，这些事件都会令油价飙升。但是，即便是在不出现此类事件的情况下，油价之于政治地震或者操控事件也不应当像以前那样脆弱不堪。纵然美国如今增产的300万桶／天的额外产量只占全世界每天所消耗的9000万桶的很小一部分。但是，做为一个边际生产者，美国的页岩油却是沙特的真正对手。这种情况应当在降低油价的脆弱型的同时亦降低世界经济的脆弱性。石油和金融业已证明，它们是唯一能让世界陷入衰退的两个行业。如今，两者之中至少有一个应该在今后变得稳定起来。 From the print edition: Leaders |
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