加息之锤落地！美联储时隔一年再次加息25个基点【格隆汇】

北京时间周四凌晨3点，美联储12月FOMC会议宣布加息25个基点，新的联邦基金目标利率将处于0.5%-0.75%区间，与市场预期一致。这是美联储时隔一年后再次加息，也是十年半以来美联储第二次加息。

美联储决议声明：预计2017年加息三次，比9月会议时预计的加息两次要快，重申前景所面临的风险大致平衡。预计未来加息路径更迅速，上调长期联邦基金利率预期0.1个百分点，至3.0%。目前的货币政策立场依然维持宽松。决议声明获得一致通过。

美联储主席耶伦表示，本次升息应被理解为反映我们对经济已经取得的进展的信心。特朗普当选美国总统后，美联储进行了相应的微调，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的“部分与会委员”开始调整财政政策假设。

耶伦表示：从来没有说过倾向于经济保持高压。 致力于确保平稳地过渡到新一届美国政府。 并不会向新总统提供政策建议。 将集中关注美联储职责和货币政策。 美联储职员们已经接触特朗普政权过渡团队，但自己尚未就此接触特朗普本人。

耶伦随后还表示，自己可能会被再度任命为美联储主席，也可能不会。有意一直担任美联储主席一职直至任期届满。但尚未就未来做出任何决定，意识到自己可能会被特朗普任命，也可能不会。对去留问题的决定不是当前所考虑的。

耶伦新闻发布会要点一览：

1、从未说过倾向于运行高压经济，当前宽松水平“温和”，加息乃对经济的信心投票。

2、美联储何时会压缩资产负债表规模：尚未作出决定，但一直都打算开始行动，将耗时数年之久。

3、FOMC讨论特朗普财政计划和市场对大选的反应：所有与会者意识到经济政策存在大量不确定性。

4、仅仅部分与会者对加息路径“适度”调整，财政政策被纳入对预期的考量。

5、美联储并非滞后于曲线，FOMC处于实现目标的正轨之上，但前景不确定。

6、无需财政政策来支持就业市场，财政政策或其他经济政策可能会潜在地影响到经济前景，但现在还不得而知，财政政策仅仅影响货币政策适宜程度的若干因素之一。

7、计划担任美联储主席一职直至四年任期届满。

8、不让多德弗兰克法案倒退很重要。

隔夜美股三大指数纷纷收跌，道指在短线冲上纪录新高后迅速回落，一度跌近150点。

美元月线走势 创2003年4月份以来新高

美元昨日盘中再刷2003年4月以来新高，一度高达102.356。

金价掉头向下，现货黄金短线跌近1140美元关口，刷2016年2月份以来新低。

油价收跌逾3%。

美联储在2008年底将利率降至近0水平，此后维持了大约7年的超低利率。去年12月，美联储开启十年来首次加息，官员们同时表示今年将继续加息，预计会有四次加息。然而年初金融市场出现大幅震荡、海外经济形势不稳、美国劳动力市场报告一度变糟、英国退欧、美国总统大选等因素，令美联储在今年前11个月中都未能加息。

附：声明翻译全文

自FOMC今年11月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明，就业市场继续增强，经济活动自年中以来一直都在稳健扩张。最近几个月以来就业增长一直都很稳健，失业率下降。家庭支出一直都在适度增长，但企业固定投资则一直保持疲软。通胀自今年早些时候以来已有所上升，但继续低于FOMC的2%长期目标，这部分反映了能源价格早前的下跌以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。整体而言，最近几个月中以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标已有相当幅度的上升，但仍保持在较低水平;大多数以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。

FOMC正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。FOMC目前预计，通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式，经济活动将以适度的步伐扩张，就业市场指标将在某种程度上进一步增强。预计通胀率将在中期上升至2%，原因是能源和进口产品价格此前下跌的暂时性影响将会消散且就业市场将进一步增强。经济前景的近期风险看似大致平衡。联邦公开市场委员会将继续密切监控通货膨胀指标以及全球经济和金融形势的发展。

考虑到已实现和预期中的就业市场状况及通胀，FOMC决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至0.50%至0.75%。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松，从而为就业市场状况的进一步改善和通胀重返2%提供支持。

为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模，FOMC将对有关其最大就业和2%通胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内，包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际发展的读数等。鉴于目前通胀尚未达到2%的形势，FOMC将仔细监控朝向通胀目标的实际和预期将有的进展。FOMC预计，经济状况的发展仅可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率;在一段时间之内，联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是，联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。

FOMC将维持现有的政策，将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去，在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期，并预计直到联邦基金利率水平的正常化进程顺利展开以前都将继续这样做。这项政策令FOMC的长期债券持有量保持在可观的水平，应可有助于保持融通的金融状况。

在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有：主席珍妮特·耶伦(JanetL.Yellen)、副主席威廉·杜德利(WilliamC.Dudley)、莱尔·布莱恩纳德(LaelBrainard)、詹姆斯·布拉德(JamesBullard)、斯坦利·费希尔(StanleyFischer)、埃丝特·乔治(EstherL.George)、洛丽塔·梅斯特(LorettaJ.Mester)、杰罗姆·鲍威尔(JeromeH.Powell)、埃里克·罗森格伦(EricRosengren)和丹尼尔·塔鲁洛(DanielK.Tarullo)。

声明英文全文如下：

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.