China investing has become strikingly bipolar, with the strategies of many fund managers set by the answer to one overriding question: “Is the Communist party strong enough to resolve the economy’s chronic debt addiction?”对中国的投资已趋于明显两极化，许多基金经理根据他们对一个关键问题的回答制定策略：“共产党是否强大到能够解决中国经济的长期债务上瘾？” Those who answer No see the Chinese sky falling, and tailor their investments accordingly. Those who answer Yes are free to gorge themselves on high-yielding domestic bonds and a bargain basement of Chinese bank equities.那些回答“否”的人看到中国的天空将要塌下来，并据此调整了他们的投资。那些回答“是”的人则大举买入高收益率的国内债券和便宜的银行板块股票。 Others, though, are cloven in uncomfortable ambiguity. They see potential dire consequences from China’s debt problem, but are obliged by the country’s strong presence in benchmark indices — a 27 per cent weight in the MSCI emerging markets equity index — to hold Chinese assets.但其他人陷入不舒服的模棱两可，难以决断。他们看到中国债务问题的潜在可怕后果，但迫于中国在基准指数中的较大权重——在MSCI明晟新兴市场股票指数的权重为27%——而持有中国资产。 For these investors, China investing is a giant game of chicken. “I see the [Chinese] sky falling but just not yet,” said Arjun Divecha, head of emerging market equities at GMO, an asset manager. “They are sitting on a powder keg. I think the Chinese can [manage the situation] but in the meantime all you need is a lightning bolt from somewhere to set the whole thing off.”对于这些投资者来说，投资中国是一场巨大的懦夫博弈。资产管理公司GMO新兴市场股票部门主管阿尔琼?戴维查(Arjun Divecha)表示：“我看到（中国的）天空将要塌下来，只是现在还没到那个节骨眼。他们坐在一个火药桶上。我认为中国人可以（管控这种局面），但与此同时，只要从什么地方来一道闪电，就引爆这个火药桶。 ” Such thinking puts a premium on being able to spot the signs of a market rout. Vigilant fund managers believe they should be able to exit Chinese assets before the herd stampedes. Their propensity to take pre-emptive action helps explain the wild swings in Hong Kong share prices even as China’s economic growth remains strong.这样的思路重视发现市场崩溃迹象的能力。警惕的基金经理认为，他们应该能在羊群一窝蜂退场前抢先撤出中国资产。他们倾向采取先发制人的行动，这有助于解释香港股价的大幅波动，即使中国经济增长依然强劲。 The Big Read Between its 2015 peak and its 2016 trough, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng share index lost 35 per cent of its value. The slump was in contrast to the general stability of China’s macro economic indicators; GDP eased only slightly from 6.9 per cent in 2015 to 6.7 per cent in 2016 while retail sales and household income growth remained robust.在2015年的峰值和2016年的谷底之间，香港恒生指数(Hang Seng share index)的跌幅达35%。这一暴跌与中国宏观经济指标的总体稳定形成了鲜明对比；国内生产总值(GDP)增速仅从2015年的6.9%略降至2016年的6.7%，而零售销售和家庭收入增长仍保持强劲。 Since last year’s trough, the index has recovered much of lost ground, bolstering confidence for those who see China’s Communist party as equal to the debt challenge. But signs of stress are building. Moody’s, the rating agency, downgraded China’s sovereign debt last week. Domestic money market rates are at elevated levels and corporate defaults are rising. The all-important real estate market is starting to cool.自去年跌至谷底以来，恒生指数已经收复了大部分失地，提振了那些认为中共有能力对付债务挑战的人士的信心。但压力的种种迹象正在积累。上周，评级机构穆迪(Moody's)下调了中国的主权债务评级。国内货币市场利率处于高位，企业违约在增多。至关重要的房地产市场已开始降温。 The market consensus may again start to favour those who think the sky is falling.市场共识可能再次开始偏向那些认为天将要塌下来的人士。 译者/何黎
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