帕金森定理

KyunraWang 2018-03-01

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帕金森定理（英语：Parkinson's law），由英国作家西里尔·诺斯古德·帕金森提出的俗语。这个俚语最早出现在1955年《经济学人》中的幽默短文，西里尔·诺斯古德·帕金森说：

在工作能够完成的时限内，工作量会一直增加，直到所有可用时间都被填充为止^[1]。

西里尔·诺斯古德·帕金森在1958年，将这个观察，扩充为一本书，《帕金森定理：对于进度的追求》（Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress）。在此书中，帕金森定理被当成一个数学等式，用来描述官僚组织随着时间而扩大的速率。帕金森观察到，一个官僚组织中的雇员总数，通常以每年5-7%的速度增加。他认为，有两股力量造成了这个增长：(1) 一个官员希望他的下属增加，但不希望解雇造成敌人增加；以及(2) 官员会制造工作给彼此。

https://en./wiki/Parkinson%27s_law

Parkinson's law is the adage that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion". It is also sometimes applied to the growth of the bureaucratic apparatus in an organization.

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History[edit source]

Articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as part of the first sentence of a humorous essay published in The Economist in 1955 and since republished online,^[1]^[2] it was reprinted with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.

A current form of the law is not the one Parkinson refers to by that name in the article, but a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting the law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while Great Britain's overseas empire declined (he shows that it had its greatest number of staff when it was folded into the Foreign Officebecause of a lack of colonies to administer). He explains this growth by two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals" and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He notes that the number employed in a bureaucracy rose by 5–7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done".

Parkinson's Law was translated into many languages. It was highly popular in the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc.^[3] In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "Parkinson's law works everywhere".^[4]

Corollaries[edit source]

The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:

If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute to do.^[5]

Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law:

Work contracts to fit in the time we give it.^[6]

the Asimov corollary to Parkinson's law:

In ten hours a day you have time to fall twice as far behind your commitments as in five hours a day.^[7]

as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:

Data expands to fill the space available for storage.^[8]

Generalization[edit source]

The law can be generalized further as:

The demand upon a resource tends to expand to match the supply of the resource (If the price is zero).

An extension is often added:

The reverse is not true.

This generalization has become very similar to the economic law of demand; the lower the price of a service or commodity, the greater the quantity demanded. This is also referred to as induced demand.

Some define the law in regard to time as:

The amount of time that one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task.

Related efficiency[edit source]

Parkinson also proposed a rule about the efficiency of administrative councils. He defined a "coefficient of inefficiency" with the number of members as the main determining variable. This is a semi-humorous attempt to define the size at which a committee or other decision-making body becomes completely inefficient.

In Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress, London: John Murray, 1958 a chapter is devoted to the basic question of what he called comitology: how committees, government cabinets, and other such bodies are created and eventually grow irrelevant (or are initially designed as such). (The word comitology has recently been independently invented by the European Union for a different non-humorous meaning.)^[9]^[10]

Empirical evidence is drawn from historical and contemporary government cabinets. Most often, the minimal size of a state's most powerful and prestigious body is five members. From English history, Parkinson notes a number of bodies that lost power as they grew:

The first cabinet was the Council of the Crown, now the House of Lords, which grew from an unknown number to 29, to 50 before 1600, by which time it had lost much of its power.
A new body was appointed in 1257, the "Lords of the King's Council", numbering fewer than 10. The body grew, and ceased to meet when it had 172 members.
The third incarnation was the Privy Council, initially also numbering fewer than 10 members, rising to 47 in 1679.
In 1715, the Privy Council lost power to the Cabinet Council with eight members, rising to 20 by 1725.
Around 1740, the Cabinet Council was superseded by an inner group, called the Cabinet, initially with five members. At the time of Parkinson's study (the 1950s), the Cabinet was still the official governing body. Parkinson observed that, from 1939 on, there was an effort to save the Cabinet as an institution. The membership had been fluctuating from a high of 23 members in 1939, down to 18 in 1954.

A detailed mathematical expression is proposed by Parkinson for the coefficient of inefficiency, featuring many possible influences. In 2008, an attempt was made to empirically verify the proposed model.^[11] Parkinson's conjecture that membership exceeding a number "between 19.9 and 22.4" makes a committee manifestly inefficient seems well justified by the evidence proposed. Less certain is the optimal number of members, which must lie between three (a logical minimum) and 20. (Within a group of 20, individual discussions may occur, diluting the power of the leader.) That it may be eight seems arguable but is not supported by observation: no contemporary government in Parkinson's data set had eight members, and only the unfortunate king Charles I of England had a Committee of State of that size.

Other chapters relate to what time to arrive at a cocktail party, how best to select applicants, what is the best age to retire and on the concept of "injelitance": the disastrous rise to authority of individuals with an unusually high combination of incompetence and jealousy expressed in the chemical formula I₃J₅.

He also wrote the book Mrs. Parkinson's Law: and Other Studies in Domestic Science.

第1法則[編集]

パーキンソンの法則は、英国の官僚制を幅広く観察した結果に基づくもので、たとえば、イギリス帝国が縮小していたにもかかわらず殖民地省の職員数は増加していたとパーキンソンは指摘している。

パーキンソンによれば、このような結果は、

役人はライバルではなく部下が増えることを望む
役人は相互に仕事を作りあう

という2つの要因によってもたらされる^[1]。また、パーキンソンは、官僚制内部の総職員数は、なすべき仕事の量の増減に関係なく、毎年5-7%増加したとも指摘している。

コンピュータへの応用[編集]

パーキンソンの法則には、コンピュータに関するバリエーションもあり、それは「データ量は与えられた記憶装置のスペースを満たすまで膨張する」というものである。システムに組み込まれるメモリー容量の増加は、より多くのメモリーを必要とする技術の発展を促すのである。過去10年間の傾向として、システムのメモリー使用量はおおむね18ヶ月ごとに倍増している（ムーアの法則）。幸いなことに単価当りのメモリー量も12ヶ月ごとに倍増してきたが、この傾向には物理的な限界があり、永遠に続くことはない。

パーキンソンの法則は、より一般的に、「ある資源に対する需要は、その資源が入手可能な量まで膨張する」という形で述べることもできる。わかりやすい例を挙げれば、「どんなに大きな冷蔵庫を買っても、必ず満杯になる」。