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专家云专家 《中国天然气发展报告(2018)》 相关政策 “2018年能源大转型高层论坛”已于8月25日在北京成功举办 专家点评观点 中国天然气行业迎来新时代背景下的快速发展期 本文节选自2018年8月25日发布的《中国天然气发展报告》，为系列文章的第二篇：中国篇，系列一为国际篇，系列三为政策篇。 2017年中国对世界天然气消费增量的贡献达30%以上，成为推动世界天然气发展的主要驱动力。 2017年，中国天然气消费快速增长，呈现"淡季不淡、旺季更旺"态势，全年消费量2386亿立方米(不含向港、澳供气) ，同比增长14.8%。天然气在一次能源消费结构中占比7.3%，同比提高0.9个百分点。用气量超过100亿立方米的省份(直辖市、自治区)有江苏、广东、四川、新疆、北京、山东六省市，河北、河南、浙江、重庆四省市用气量也接近百亿立方米。 2017年，国内天然气产量增长超100亿立方米，达1480.3亿立方米，同比增长8.2%。中国天然气资源丰富，但勘探开发程度依然较低，常规天然气发展仍有较大潜力。 中国天然气储运设施不断完善，供应能力进一步提升。截至2017年底，全国已建成投产天然气长输管道7.4万千米，干线管网总输气能力达3100亿立方米/年；累计建成投产地下储气库25座，有效工作气量77亿立方米；已投产液化天然气接收站18座，总接收能力5960万吨/年。 2017年，中国天然气进口量快速增长，进口来源进一步多元化。进口量946亿立方米，同比增长26.9%。其中，进口管道气420亿立方米，同比增长8.8%，约85%进口量来自土库曼斯坦，乌兹别克斯坦、缅甸管道气进口量均有所下降。 进口LNG526亿立方米，同比增长46.3%。进口资源目标国达22个，比2016年增加4 个。澳大利亚依然为中国LNG进口最大来源国，全年进口237亿立方米，同比增长44.3%; 其次是卡塔尔，向中国供应103亿立方米，同比增长50.4%;。2017年美国向中国出口LNG21亿立方米，比2016年增长7.5倍，约占同年美国LNG出口量的11.7%。 2017年中国天然气进口贸易依然以中国石油、中国石化、中海油三大石油公司为主导，其他企业的天然气进口贸易规模不断扩大。北京燃气、广东九丰、新疆广汇等公司的天然气进口量总和达20亿立方米左右。 2018年，中国天然气仍会是快速发展的一年，预计表观消费量在2710亿立方米左右(不含向港、澳供气) ，同比增长13.5% ，增速较2017年有所下降。其中，工业燃料用气将明显增长，消费量约900亿立方米，同比增速18.4%，占比升至33.2%; 城镇燃气和天然气发电依然保持较快增长，消费量分别约为1050亿立方米和500亿立方米，占比分别达38.7%和18.5%; 化工用气态势持续低迷，消费量约260亿立方米，占比不足10%。预计2020年、2030年、2050年天然气在一次能源消费结构中的占比将分别提升到近10% 、14%和15%左右。  OilChem Insights Natural Gas Sector in China Will See Rapid Development China’s contribution to global natural gas consumption increment was over 30 percent in 2017, becoming a major driver of the development of natural gas. China’s consumption grew rapidly in 2017, with a total of 238.6 bcm (excluding supplies to Hong Kong and Macau), up 14.8 percent year on year. Provinces consumed over 10 bcm included Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Beijing and Shandong, and provinces such as Hebei, Henan, Zhejiang and Chongqing also consumed nearly 10 bcm. The increment of natural gas production in China exceeded 10 bcm in 2017, with the overall production of 148.03 bcm, up 8.2 percent year on year. Reserves are rich, however, the exploration and production level are still low, and the development of conventional gas still has great potential in China. The supply capacity has been further enhanced with the constant improvement of storage and transportation facilities. By the end of 2017, there were 74 thousand kilometers long-distance gas pipeline being completed and put into operation nationwide, with the transportation capacity of 310 bcm per year. 25 underground gas storage facilities have been completed and put into operation accumulatively, with the working capacity of 7.7 bcm. 18 LNG receiving stations have been put into operation, with the receiving capacity of 59.6 million tons per year. China’s import origin of natural gas has been diversified as the import volume reaching 94.6 bcm, up 26.9 percent year on year in 2017. The import volume through pipeline was 42 bcm, up 8.8 percent year on year, of which 85 percent was from Turkmenistan, and that from Uzbekistan and Myanmar were both decreasing. LNG import reached 52.6 bcm, up 46.3 percent year on year. There were 22 origin countries, adding 4 compared with that of 2016. And Australia still was the largest import origin, with the volume of 23.7 bcm, up 44.3 percent year on year. The second largest one is Qatar, with the volume of 10.3 bcm, up 50.4 percent year on year. U.S. exported 2.1 bcm LNG to China in 2017, 7.5 fold of that in 2016, accounting for 11.7 percent of the overall export volume. PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC still dominated the import trade of natural gas in China in 2017, with the trade volume of other enterprises increasing gradually. The overall import volume of Beijing Gas, Jovo, Xinjiang Guanghui and other entities reached about 2 bcm. The year 2018 will continue to see a rapid growth of natural gas in China, with apparent consumption expected to be around 271 bcm (excluding supplies to Hong Kong and Macao), up 13.5 percent year on year, and a lower growth rate compared to 2017. Industrial fuel will increase significantly with an estimated 90 bcm, accounting for 33.2 percent, up 18.4 percent year on year. Residential and power generation are expected to maintain a rapid growth with consumption volume of 105 bcm and 50 bcm, accounting for 38.7 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively. Chemical consumption will continue to be sluggish, standing at about 26 bcm, accounting for less than 10 percent. It is estimated that the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption mix will increase to nearly 10 percent, 14 percent and 15 percent in 2020, 2030 and 2050, respectively. 隆众编辑报告 滨海LNG项目获批 华东接收站有望添丁 专题系列一：内蒙古近期计划投产LNG工厂一览 专题系列二：陕西近期计划投产LNG工厂一览 打赢蓝天保卫战 天然气小编带你划下行业重点 往期内容 相对宽松的国际市场环境助力中国天然气快速发展 炼化一体化运营将增强企业灵活性 煤化工项目的4C因素 全球石化产业的大格局正在形成 如何在煤改气的大趋势下解决“气荒”与“气短” 中国能源产量结构 打赢蓝天保卫战的必经之路——煤改气与煤改电 BP英国石油在华业务的前世今生 图解原油期货：INE SC交易近况 隆众专家云介绍 隆众专家云邀请相关专家分享对重大事件和政策的观点和解读，包括文字和图表。 内容范围涉及到国内外能源上中下游全产业链。 每周一次，中英文双语发布。遇到重大及热点事件，将单独发布。 免责声明：本专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点，与隆众资讯无关。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本公司证实，对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容的真实性、完整性、及时性隆众资讯不作任何保证或承诺，请读者仅作参考，并请自行核实相关内容。 |
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