射手假说有一名神枪手,在一个靶子上,每隔10cm打出一个洞。设想这个靶子上生活着一种二维智能生物,它们中的科学家在对自己的宇宙进行观察后,发现了一个伟大的定律:每隔10cm单位,必然会有一个洞。 它们把这个神枪手一时兴起的随意行为,看成自己宇宙中的铁律。——《三体1》——by刘慈欣 基本内容描写男主角汪淼的日常时提到的,原文说是“科学边界”组织的学者们进行讨论时,经常讨论的一个缩写词:SF。源自两个假说,都涉及到宇宙规律的本质。 一个是“射手假说”,另一个是“农场主假说“ 射手假说:有一名神枪手,在一个靶子上,每隔10cm打出一个洞。设想这个靶子上生活着一种二维智能生物,它们中的科学家在对自己的宇宙进行观察后,发现了一个伟大的定律:每隔10cm单位,必然会有一个洞。 它们把这个神枪手一时兴起的随意行为,看成自己宇宙中的铁律。 农场主假说:一个农场里有一群火鸡,农场主每天上午11点来给它们喂食。火鸡中的一名科学家观察这个现象,一直观察了近一年都没有出现例外,于是它也发现了自己宇宙中的伟大定律:每天早上11点,就有食物降临。 它在感恩节早晨向大家宣布了这个定律,但这天早上11点食物没有降临,农场主进来把他们都捉去杀了。 The turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, that he was fed at 9 a.m. Being a good inductivist turkey he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he collected a large number of observations that he was fed at 9 a.m. and made these observations under a wide range of circumstances … Each day he added another observationstatementto his list. Finally he wassatisfiedthat he had collected a number of observation statements to inductively infer that “I am always fed at 9 a.m.”. However on the morning of Christmas eve he was not fed but instead had his throat cut. (The story by Russell is found in Alan Chalmers,What is this thing Called Science, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1982, p. 14) |
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