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本文来自INC网站。芒格有一句名言：如果我知道我要死在哪里，我就不会去那个地方。就像代数，反向思考是一种很有力的思考工具。网球里面有也两种赢的策略：一种是高手策略，强调进攻技巧让对手接不到球；另一种是普通人的策略，强调不失误让球回过去。生活也是一样，一种策略是如何变得聪明，另一种策略是如何变得不愚蠢。 David Tunning对于愚蠢的研究给出了不那么愚蠢的5个方法。Enjoy！ Even if you've never heard of University of Michigan psychologist David Dunning, you are no doubt intimately familiar with the concept that bears his name. It's called the Dunning-Kruger effect, and it says that while the competent are often plagued with doubt, the incompetent tend to be blissfully sure of their excellence. 即使你从未听说过密歇根大学心理学家David Tunning，你也应该听说过一个以他的名字命名的概念。它被称为Dunning-Kruger效应，这个效应说：尽管有能力的人常常被疑惑所困扰，无能的人往往对他们的卓越充满信心。 Or to put it more bluntly, stupid or incompetent people are often too stupid or incompetent to understand exactly how stupid and incompetent they are. They think they're awesome. 或者更坦率地说，愚蠢或无能的人往往太愚蠢或太无能而无法理解他们究竟是多么愚蠢和无能。他们认为自己很棒。 This idea explains so much real-world behavior that it has become justifiably famous as the go-to explanation for the idiocy we all suffer in our day-to-day lives. But in a great recent interview with Vox's Brian Resnick, Dunning explains that his work isn't just a handy label for your most annoying office mate (or most hated politician). The Dunning-Kruger effect, he insists, suggests ways all of us can be both a little less dumb and a little less oblivious to our stupidity. 这个想法解释了如此多的现实世界的行为，它已成为我们在日常生活中遭遇到白痴的首要解释。但是最近在接受Vox的Brian Resnick的一次采访中，Dunning解释说他的研究成果不仅仅是你给最讨厌的办公室同事（或者最讨厌的政客）的标签。他坚持认为，Dunning-Kruger效应提醒我们所有人都可以通过使用一些方法从而不那么愚蠢。 1. Lean on other people. 依靠其他人 The most essential lesson of Dunning's work isn't that other people are bad at judging their own competence; it's that we're all terrible at our assessing our skills. The Dunning-Kruger effect 'is a phenomenon that visits all of us sooner or later. Some of us are a little more flamboyant about it. Some of us aren't. But not knowing the scope of your own ignorance is part of the human condition,' Dunning explains. Dunning的研究最重要的教训并不是告诉你：其他人不善于判断他们自己的能力; 而是：我们在评估我们的技能时都非常糟糕。 Dunning-Kruger效应 “是一种迟早会访问我们所有人的现象。我们中的一些人有点夸张。我们有些人不是。但不知道你自己的无知范围是人类的一部分先天设定，” Dunning解释说。 We're all susceptible to stupidity and overconfidence. One way to start correcting for that is to lean more on other minds. Groups are less likely to be dumb than individuals. 我们都容易受到愚蠢和过度自信的影响。开始纠正这种情况的一种方法是更多地依赖其他人的思想。团队不像个人那么容易愚蠢。 'A lot of the issues or problems we get into, we get into because we're doing it all by ourselves. We're relying on ourselves. We're making decisions as our own island,' Dunning says. 'If we consult, chat, schmooze with other people, often we learn things or get different perspectives that can be quite helpful.' “我们遇到很多情况或问题，因为我们是自己在做这件事。我们依靠自己。我们像孤岛一样决策，” Dunning说。 “如果我们与其他人进行咨询，聊天，闲聊，通常我们会学习或获得非常有用的不同观点。” 2. Imagine the worst-case scenario. 想象一下最坏的情况 Optimism has its place in life but not, apparently, when you're trying to make a truly smart decision. Then gloom and neurosis will serve you better, according to psychology. 'Ask yourself where you could be wrong if the decision is an important one. Or how can your plans end up in disaster? Think that through -- it matters,' Dunning instructs. 乐观在生活中占有一席之地，但显然，当你试图做出一个真正明智的决定时，乐观可不行。根据心理学的观点，忧郁和恐惧会更好地为你服务。 “如果决定是重要的，那么问问自己哪里可能出错。或者你的计划如何最终成为灾难？仔细一一思考 — 这很重要，” Dunning说。 3. Think in probabilities, not certainties. 思考概率，而不是确定性 Want to get better at predicting the future and therefore making better decisions today? Give up on black-and-white, yes-or-no style thinking, and instead try to think in terms of probabilities. Not, 'Will X or Y occur?' but, 'What is the chance of X or Y occurring -- 10, 50, 80 percent?' 想要更好地预测未来，从而做出更好的决策吗？放弃非黑即白，非是即否的思考方式，而是尝试从概率的角度思考。不是 “X或Y会发生吗？” 而是，“X或Y发生的几率是多少 - 10％，50％，80％？” This tip comes 'from the work of [University of Pennsylvania psychologist] Philip Tetlock and his 'superforecasters,'' Dunning notes. Tetlock has found that 'people who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to do much better in forecasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties.' 这个提示来自“宾夕法尼亚大学心理学家Philip Tetlock的研究和他的书《超级预测者》，” Dunning指出。 Tetlock发现，“那些不是用确定性思考而是用概率思考的人往往在预测世界将要发生的事情方面比用确定性思考的人更好。” 4. Know what's a fact and what's an opinion. 知道什么是事实，什么是意见 Back in grade school, some teacher probably had you do an exercise where you separated fact from opinion. 'This picture is beautiful' is an opinion. 'Barack Obama was born in America' is a fact. These days, according to Dunning, more and more of us are forgetting this essential distinction. If you want to be a little smarter, you need to remind yourself that some questions aren't open for personal interpretation. 回到小学，有些老师可能会让你做一个你将事实与意见分开的练习。 “这张照片很漂亮”是一种观点。 “奥巴马出生在美国”是一个事实。如今，根据Dunninng的说法，我们越来越多的人忘记了这一本质的区别。如果你想变得更聪明，你需要提醒自己，有些问题不适合个人的诠释。 'If you survey Democrats and Republicans right now, of course they differ in terms of their priorities for the country and their theories of where we should take the country. But they also differ in what they think the country is. They really differ in terms of 'Is the economy doing well?' 'What's the record of the Obama administration?' 'Did the stock market go up or did it go down?'' Dunning tells Resnick. But 'these are factual questions,' he stresses. You don't get to have an opinion. All you get to do is look up the right answer. “如果你现在对民主党人和共和党人进行调查，理所当然的是他们在国家优先事项上观点不同，在应该把国家引向何方的理论方面也有所不同。但是他们对这个国家是什么的看法也不同。比如： “经济状况良好吗？” “奥巴马政府的记录是什么？” “股市上涨了还是下跌了？” Dunning告诉Resnick。但他强调，“这些都是事实性问题”。你不需要拥有意见。你所要做的就是找到正确的答案。 5. Get better at saying 'I don't know.' 善于说“我不知道” Looking up these facts is dead simple these days thanks to Google. The tricky part isn't the research, it's the psychology. Before you go and look for information, you first have to admit you don't already know that information. That takes intellectual humility, and humans aren't always awesome at humility. 由于谷歌的存在，这些事实现在了解起来很简单。棘手的部分不是研究，而是心理。在你去寻找信息之前，你首先必须承认你还不知道这些信息。这需要智慧的谦逊，人类并不总是谦虚。 'People seem to be uncomfortable about saying, 'I don't know.' That's one thing we've never been able to get people to do,' Dunning admits. But while psychology might not have found the right lever to nudge us toward humility, it is in the power of each individual to choose to actively remind ourselves of the limits of our knowledge. Do that and you'll instantly be smarter. “人们似乎对说 '我不知道' 感到不舒服。” 这是我们从未能够让人们去做的一件事，” Dunning承认。但是，虽然心理学可能没有找到正确的杠杆来推动我们变得谦逊，但每个个体的力量都在于选择积极地提醒自己我们知识的局限性。这样做，你会立即变得更聪明。 |
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