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喜欢这句话，世上只有一门经济学，没有微观和宏观(划分为微观和宏观是为了教学的方便)，也没有东西之分，总之，就是这世上有一门科学，就叫做经济学 Erik Hurst and Tom Winberry在2016推出了一门课程 33942: Empirical Macroeconomics – Micro Data for Macro Models 为了便于理解，我将其称为“微观实证+宏观模型的研究范式” 剩下的话，就不多说了吧 这里给出syllabus和reading list Erik Hurst and Tom Winberry 33942: Empirical Macroeconomics – Micro Data for Macro Models Fall 2016 (Tentative) CourseSchedule The course is a 10-week course comprised of the entire fall quarter. Erik will teach five lectures (tentativelyweeks 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6) and will focus on using primarily household level datato address various questions of interest to macro economists. Tom will also teach five lectures (weeks 1a,3, 7, 8, and 9), using primarily firm level data to address questions of interestto macro economists. A few additionalthings to keep in mind:
Lecture Meeting Times Monday 1:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m., HarperCenter, 3A TA Session Meeting Times Wednesday 5:15 p.m. - 7:00 p.m., HarperCenter, 3A * Note - During week 1, Tom will hold hisfirst lecture during the TA session. Onthat night, the session will go from 5:15 - 8:15. On certain extended sessions, we may also gopast 7:00. TomWinberry Information Office: 377Harper Center Email: Thomas.Winberry@ChicagoBooth.edu Office Hours: By Appointment ErikHurst Information Office: 410Harper Center Email: erik.hurst@ChicagoBooth.edu Office Hours: By Appointment JohnGrigsby (T.A.) Information Email: jgrigsby@uchicago.edu Office Hours: By Appointment Overviewof Course The goals for this course are thefollowing: (i) Introduce students to a variety of datasources that can be used to test, calibrate and develop models of interest formacroeconomics and related fields. (ii) Introduce students to quantitative modelswhich can be used to connect micro data to macro outcomes. \(iii) Introduce studentsto important papers and research questions with high empirical content and relevantto macroeconomics, broadly defined. (iv) Get students to think hard about thegenesis of research questions and the inputs into successful research. CourseRequirements There is a lot of work in this course. Hopefully, all of it will be beneficial withrespect to sharpening your research skills. Aside from attending class, doing the course readings, and participatingin lectures and discussions, you will have three additional requirements: handing in homework assignments (data work, refereereports, quantitative exercises, and research development),attending ourreading group (during recitation), and completing a final project (developing apreliminary research paper) Note: Auditorsare expected to complete the components of the weekly assignments relevant toclass discussion. (1) There will be 5 homeworkassignments during the term: two for Erik’s portion, two for Tom’s portion, andone joint assignment. The jointassignment will be to write referee reports for the job market papers of topempirical macro students on the market this winter. Note: All questions on the homework should be directed to the TA (not Tom andErik). (2) Also, we will have a readinggroup where the students will present papers to the class. We expect every registered student topresent a paper during the term; the size of the registered class willdetermine presentation length. Thereading group will meet during recitation. Tom will assign papers and presentation dates at the beginning of theterm. In order to expose students to abroad range of topics as early in the sequence as possible, papers in thereading group will be drawn from topics covered later in the empirical macrosequence. The goal is to allow studentsthe freedom to begin working on a research idea related to topics covered laterin the sequence. (3) The final project for thecourse will be a 20 minute presentation on an original research topic whichuses micro data and is of interest to macroeconomists. [Tom and I have a broadnotion of what is interesting to macroeconomists – so, this should not be aconstraint. In particular, the topicneed to be drawn from the material covered in the course.] These presentations will occur during finalsweek of course (December 5th – 8th). All students (including auditors?) arerequired to present an idea for a research paper. The presentation should include (1) what specificquestion the paper asks, (2) why the question is interesting, (3) which data isneeded to answer the question, and (4) how the question would be answered. Strong presentations will also includedescriptive facts or preliminary results which suggest the idea will turn intoa paper Student presentations should NOTinclude more than 10-12 slides. Moreinformation will be provided during the quarter. Homework Due Date The first four homework assignments are due to the TA by the Tuesdaybefore recitation at 12:00 p.m (noon). No late homework assignments will be accepted. Plan your time accordingly. Tom’s homework assignments will be due onOctober 11th and November 15th. Erik’s homework assignments will be due onOctober 25th and November 8th. The joint homework will be due to the TA byMonday at 12:00 p.m. (noon) on November 28th. Course Grading
Grades will be based on effort, originality/insight, execution, andclarity. Homework assignments will be graded out of 12 by the TA. Also, the TA will grade your participationin the reading group. Erik and Tom willgrade your research proposal presentation. ReadingLists/Topics Erik and Tom will provide separate reading lists for their portionsof the course. See their respective webpages for more information. RecitationLectures A list of topics for each recitation section is at the end of thesyllabus. We will conduct the bulk ofour reading group during the recitation lectures. Macro SequenceRequirement For those wishing to takethe macro sequence this year, here are the requirements: (1) Four courses are offered aspart of the sequence. You must takethree of the four courses for a grade. We do, however, encourage students to take all four courses. In order to get certified as completing themacro sequence, you need to secure a B in at least three of the four coursesoffered as part of this year’s sequence. (2) You must submit an acceptableresearch paper by July 31st, 2017. Research paper requirements: (1) You must have one of the fivefaculty teaching in the sequence commit to being your paper reader by April 30th,2016. (2) You must contract with thereader the expectations for a suitable paper. (3) The paper could take twoforms: a paper replication or a virtualpaper. We explain both below. (4) Paper Replication (optionA): You will take an existing paper witha substantial empirical component and replicate the paper’s key findings. If you choose this path, you must pick apaper for which you can secure the actual data used by the authors. When you write up your results, you shouldtalk about (1) why you picked the paper, (2) what the paper’s goals were, (3)why you think those goals are interesting, and (4) what impact the paper hashad on the profession. When writing upyour results, you should compare your results with that of the papers. The hope is to match their results exactly. However, that is sometimes very difficult todo. If that is the case, you shouldcompare where your results differ from theirs. Finally, you should extend the paper in some substantive way. For example, you can show the robustness ofthe paper’s results to some additional specification, sample, or timeperiod. You need to defend why you thinkthese additional robustness tests are interesting. Are the paper’s results robust to thesealternate specifications? Your facultyreader will provide more details about their expectations. (5) Paper Replication (optionB): You will take an existing paperwith a substantial theoretical or computational component. You will then extend the paper’s theoretical orquantitative results in some substantive way. For example, the paper may have made “assumption A”. You may explore whether the paper’s resultshold if that assumption is relaxed or if “assumption B” is made instead. Like above, you need to talk about (1) whyyou picked the paper, (2) what the paper’s goals were, (3) why think thesegoals are interesting, and (4) what impact the paper has had on theprofession. Also, you need to defendwhy you think your extensions of the model are interesting. Are the paper’s results robust to thesealternate specifications? Your facultyreader will provide more details about their expectations. (6) Virtual Paper: Instead of replicating an existing paper,you can choose to start to write your own paper. Instead of submitting a completed paper, youcould instead submit what we call a “virtual paper”. If youchoose this path, students will be required to formulate an original research idea, develop a practical plan for executingthe idea, and take initial steps in the execution. An empirical virtual paper should include anintroduction (what is the question and why is the question of interest?), aliterature review (how does your paper fit into the broader literature?), atheoretical motivation section (this could be actual theory or just a sketch ofthe relevant theory that underlies your question), a data section (whatexisting data sets exist to answer this question?), and empirical methodologysection (how would use the data to answer your question – keeping in mindconcepts of identification and causality), falsification tests (what otherspecifications, tests, etc. could either bolster or cast doubt upon yourprimary tests), and some preliminary results (anything you have done so far tosee if the paper will pan out). Atheoretical virtual paper will be similar. However, more progress will be made setting up the model and talkingabout the expected predictions of the model. Intuition should be provided for those predictions. Your faculty reader will provide moredetails about their expectations. Note: We recommend that you write a virtualpaper in order to start down the path of producing original research. Given that our final project is to come upwith an original research topic, it is natural to continue developing thistopic into a virtual paper. TA Sessions/Homework Dates September 28: Tom's First Lecture (session goesto 8:15). October 5: John will review many majorhousehold and firm datasets. He willalso discuss how to present and display empirical results inpapers/homework. Finally, he will givehis thoughts on the genesis of research ideas. October 12: Tom Homework #1 Discussion(Homework due on the 10th). Reading group presentation(s). October 19: Reading group presentation(s). October 26: Erik Homework #1Discussion. Presentation of homeworkresults by students. No reading groupthis week. November 2: Reading group presentation(s). November 9: ErikHomework #2 Discussion. Reading grouppresentation(s). November 16: TomHomework #2 discussion. Reading grouppresentation(s). November 23: Nosession – Thanksgiving. November 30: Readinggroup presentation(s). December 7: Presentationof paper topics. ReadingList (2016) CourseOutline/Reading List Note: Readings discussed explicitly in classwill be noted with (*). The readingsindicated under the “additional reading” sections are optional. You are responsible for all other readings. Topic1: Consumption Inequality 1. Attanasio,Orazio, Erik Hurst and Luigi Pistaferri (2012). 'The Evolution of Income, Consumption,and Leisure Inequality in the US, 1980-2010', in Improving Measurement ofConsumer Expenditures (eds. Chris Carroll, Thomas Crossley, and JohnSabelhaus). (It is easier to find NBER Working Paper 17982 – they are the same).(*) 2. Autor,David, Larry Katz, and Melissa Kearney (2008). 'Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists', Review of Economic and Statistics, 90(2):300-23. 3. Attanasio,Orazio and Steve Davis (1996). “RelativeWage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption”, Journal of Political Economy, 104(6), 1227-62. 4. Krueger,Dirk and Fabrizio Perri (2006), 'Does Income Inequality Lead toConsumption Inequality: Evidence andTheory' Review of Economic Studies, 73(1), 163-93. (*) 5. Aguiar,Mark and Mark Bils (2015). 'Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored IncomeInequality', American Economic Review, 105(9) 2725-56.(*) 6. Attanasio,Orazio and Luigi Pistaferri (2016). “Consumption Inequality”, Journalof Economic Perspectives, 30(2), 3-28. Topic2: Labor Markets During The GreatRecession A. RecentTrends 7. Elsby,Mike, Bark Hobijn, and Aysegul Sahin (2011). 'The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall. 8. Moffitt,Robert (2012). 'The U.S.Employment-Population Reversal in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall. B. DecliningLabor Demand During Great Recession 9. Chodorow-Reich,Gabriel. 2014. “The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-levelEvidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis,”Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129 (1): 1-59.(*) 10. Mian,A. and Sufi, A. (2014). “What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?” Econometrica, 82: 2197–2223. (*) 11. Giroud,Xavier and Holger Mueller (2016). “FirmLeverage, Consumer Demand and Employment Losses During the Great Recession,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming. C. MismatchUnemployment and Rising Unemployment During the Great Recession 12. Sahin,Aysegul, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante (2014). 'Mismatch Unemployment', American Economic Review. (*) D. UnemploymentBenefits and Rising Unemployment During The Great Recession 13. Rothstein,Jesse (2011). 'UnemploymentInsurance and Job Search in the Great Recession', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2011, 143-201. 14. Michaillat,Pascal (2012). 'Do MatchingFrictions Explain Unemployment? Not inBad Times', American Economic Review,102(4), 1721-50. 15. Chodorow-Reich,Gabe and Loukas Karabarbounis (2016). “The Limited Macroeconomic Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions”,NBER Working Paper 22163. (*) 16. Hagedorn,Marcus, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovski, and Kurt Mitman (2016). “Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment inthe Great Recession: The Role of MacroEffects”. NBER Working Paper 19499. (*) 17. Johnston,Andrew and Alex Mas (2016). “PotentialUnemployment Insurance Duration and Labor Supply: The Individual and Market-Level Response to aBenefit Cut”, NBER Working Paper 22411. E. StructuralEmployment Declines During the 2000s 18. Charles,Kerwin, Erik Hurst and Matt Notowidigdo (2016). “The Masking of the Decline in Manufacturing Employment by the HousingBubble,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(2), 179-200. (*) 19. Charles,Kerwin, Erik Hurst and Matt Notowidigdo (2016). “Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labor Market Outcomes”. Erik’s Web Page (*) 20. Charles,Kerwin, Erik Hurst and Matt Notowidigdo (2015). 'Housing Booms, Labor MarketOpportunities, and College Attendance', Erik’s Web Page (*) 21. Autor,David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson (2011). 'The China Syndrome: LocalLabor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States' workingpaper (see David Autor's web page). (*) 22. Autor,David and Mark Duggan (2003). “The Risein the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 157-206. 23. Jaimovich,Nir and Henry Siu (2014). 'TheTrend is the Cycle: Job Polarization andJobless Recoveries', working paper (see Nir's webpage).(*) AdditionalReading: An Important Older Literatureon Long Run Changes in Labor Supply 24. Juhn,Chinhui, Kevin Murphy, and Bob Topel (1991), “Why Has the Natural Rate ofUnemployment Increased Over Time?”, BrookingsPapers on Economic Activity, 1991(2), 75-142. 25. Katz,Larry and Kevin Murphy (1992). “Changesin Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply andDemand Factors”, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, 107(1), 35-78. 26. Juhn,Chinhui, Kevin Murphy, and Bob Topel (2002), “Current Unemployment,Historically Contemplated”, BrookingsPapers on Economic Activity, 2002(1), 79-136. AdditionalReading: An Important Older Literatureon Sectoral Shifts 27. Lilien,David (1982). 'Sectoral Shifts andCyclical Unemployment', Journal ofPolitical Economy, 90(4), 777-793. 28. Abraham,Katherine and Larry Katz (1986). “Cyclical Unemployment: SectoralShifts or Aggregate Disturbances”, Journalof Political Economy, 94(3), 507-22. Topic 3: Non-Market Production, Consumption and LaborSupply A. TheClassics 29. Mincer,Jacob (1962). “Labor Force Participationof Married Women: A Study of LaborSupply”, in Aspects of Labor Economics (found here: http://www./chapters/c0603.pdf) 30. Ghezand Becker (1975), The Allocation ofTime and Goods over the Life Cycle, Chapter 2 (you can find it onlineat http://www./books/ghez75-1) (*) 31. Heckman,Jim (1974). “Life Cycle Consumption and Labor Supply: An Explanation of theRelationship Between Income and Consumption Over the Life Cycle”. American Economic Review, 64, 188-194. 32. Gronau,Ruben (1986). “Home Production: A Survey”, in Ashenfelter, O. and Layard, R(eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 273-304. (thiscan be found here: http://econpapers./bookchap/eeelabchp/1-04.htm). B. HomeProduction in and Business Cycles 33. Benhabib,J, Richard Rogerson, and Randy Wright (1991), “Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and AggregateFluctuations”, Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 99, 1166-87. (*) 34. Greenwood,Jeremy and Zvi Hercowitz (1991). 'The Allocation of Capital and Timeover the Business Cycle', Journal ofPolitical Economy, 99(6): 1188-1214. 35. Aguiar,Mark, Erik Hurst and Loukas Karabarbounis (2012). 'Time Use During the GreatRecession', American Economic Review, 103(5), 1664-96. (*) C. EstimatingHome Production Parameters 36. Rupert,Peter, Richard Rogerson, and Randy Wright (2000), “Homework in LaborEconomics: Household Production andIntertemporal Substitution”, Journal ofMonetary Economics, 46, 557-79. (*) 37. Aguiar,Mark and Erik Hurst (2007). “Life CyclePrices and Production”, American EconomicReview, 97(5), 1533-59. (*) D. LongRun Trends in Time Use 38. Aguiar,Mark and Erik Hurst (2007). “MeasuringTrends in Leisure: The Allocation ofTime Over Five Decades”, QuarterlyJournal of Economics, 122(3), 969-1006. (*) 39. Ramey,Valerie and Neville Francis (2009). “ACentury of Work and Leisure”, AEJ Macro, 1(2) 40. Guryan,Jon, Erik Hurst and Melissa Kearney (2008). 'Parental Education and Parental Time With Children', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3),23-46. E. HomeProduction and Consumption 41. Aguiar,Mark and Erik Hurst (2005). “Consumptionversus Expenditure”, Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 113(5), 919-948. (Retirement Consumption) (*) 42. Aguiar,Mark and Erik Hurst (2012). “DeconstructionLife Cycle Consumption”, Journal ofPolitical Economy, 121(3), 437-92. (*) Topic 4: Regional Adjustments A. TheClassics 43. Blanchard,Olivier and Larry Katz (1992). “RegionalEvolutions”, Brookings Papers on EconomicActivity, 1992 (1), 1 – 75. (*)
44. Saiz,Albert (2010). 'The GeographicDeterminants of Housing Supply', 125(3), 1253-1297. 45. Guerrieri,Veronica, Daniel Hartley and Erik Hurst (2013). 'Endogenous Gentrification and Housing Price Dynamics',Journal of Public Economics, 100(C), 45-60. 46. Notowidigdo,Matthew (2011). 'The Incidence ofLocal Labor Demand Shocks', working paper (see Matt's web page). 47. Diamond,Rebecca (2016). “The Determinants andWelfare Implications of US Workers’ Diverging Location Choices by Skill:1980-2000”, American Economic Review,106(3), 479-524.
48. Nakamura,Emi and Jon Steinnson (2013). 'Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions'. American Economic Review (forthcoming). See Emi's web page for a recent version. (*) 49. Shoag,Danny (2012). 'The Impact ofGovernment Spending Shocks: Evidence onthe Multiplier from State Pension Plan Returns'. (See Danny's web page at Kennedy School).
50. Barro,Robert and Xavier Sala-I-Martin (1991). 'Convergence Across States andRegions', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991, 107-82. (*)
51. Topel,Bob (1986). “Local Labor Markets”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(3),S111-43. 52. Davis,Steve, Prakash Loungani, and Ramamohan Mahidhara (1997). 'Regional Labor Fluctuations: OilShocks, Military Spending, and Other Driving Forces', working paper(see http://www./pubs/ifdp/1997/578/ifdp578.pdf)
53. Kaplan,Greg and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl (2016). 'Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration', International Economic Review(forthcoming) 54. Yagan,Danny (2016). “Is the Great Recession ReallyOver? Longitudinal Evidence of EnduringEmployment Impacts”, working paper (see Danny’s web page)
55. Coibion,Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Gee Hee Hong (2012). 'The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular andEffective Prices: Business Cycle andPolicy Implications,” American EconomicReview, 105, 2644-2678. 56. Kaplan,Greg and Guido Menzio (2013). 'TheMorphology of Price Dispersion', InternationalEconomic Review, 56(4), 1165-1204. 57. Stroebel,Johannes and Joe Vavra (2016). “HousePrices, Local Demand and Retail Prices”, working paper (see Joe’s web page). H. Regional Redistribution 58. Hurst,Erik, Ben Keys, Amit Seru and Joe Vavra (2016). “Regional Redistribution Through the US Mortgage Market”, American Economic Review, forthcoming.(*) I. Regional Aggregation 59. Beraja,Martin, Erik Hurst and Juan Ospina (2014). 'Aggregate Implications ofRegional Business Cycles' (2016). (Erik will send a copy out to the class) (*) Topic 5: Occupational Choice and Aggregate Productivity 60. Hsieh,Chang-Tai, Erik Hurst, Chad Jones, and Pete Klenow (2012). “The Allocation of Talent and EconomicGrowth”, working paper (see Erik’s web page). (*) 61. Lagakos,David and Mike Waugh (2012). 'Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences', American Economic Review, 103(2),948-80. 62. Costinot,Arnaud, Dave Donaldson, and Cory Smith (2013). 'Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change inAgricultural Markets: Evidence from a 9Million Field Partition of the Earth'. MIT working paper. 将这个课程的相关资讯 分享给广大经济学的劳动者 在劳动人民的节日中 劳动最光荣！ |
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