|
1 导读 俄驻叙利亚军事基地遭无人机攻击 2 音乐| 精读 | 翻译 | 词组 Drones and guerrilla warfare 无人机和游击战 本文英文部分选自经济学人Science and Technology版块 Home-made drones now threaten conventional armed forces 自制无人机正在威胁着传统的武器力量 Their small size and large numbers can overwhelm defences 无人机小而多的特点可以摧毁防御 AN ATTACK on Russian forces in Syria on January 5th by 13 home-made drones is a good example of “asymmetric” warfare. On one side, exquisite high-tech weapons. On the other, cheap-as-chips disposable robot aircraft. Ten of the drones involved attacked a Russian airbase at Khmeimim. The other three went for a nearby naval base at Tartus. Rather than being quadcopters, the most popular design for commercial drones, the craft involved in these attacks (some of which are pictured above) resembled hobbyists’ model aircraft. They had three-metre wingspans, were built crudely of wood and plastic, and were powered by lawnmower engines. Each carried ten home-made shrapnel grenades under its wings. 1月5号，13架自制无人机袭击了俄罗斯在叙利亚的军事力量，这场袭击可谓是一个很好的“不对称”战争的例子。一方是高精尖的作战武器，另一方是廉价的一次性的无人机。其中，有10架无人机参与袭击了俄罗斯位于赫梅林（Khmeimim）的空军基地，另外三架袭击了塔尔图斯（Tartus）海军基地。参与袭击的这些无人机并不是那些流行的商业四旋翼飞行器，而是类似于业余爱好者的模型飞行器（如上图）。它们有三米长的翼展，粗糙的由木头和塑料制成，并且由除草机的引擎驱动。在其侧翼下，每一架都装有10个自制的弹片手榴弹。 According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, which has so far refused to say who it thinks was responsible for the attack, the drones were guided by GPS and had a range of 100km. The electronics involved were off-the-shelf components, and the total cost of each drone was perhaps a couple of thousand dollars. The airframes bore a resemblance to those of Russian Orlan-10 drones, several of which have been shot down by rebel forces in Syria. The craft may thus have been a cheap, garage-built copy of captured kit. 到目前为止，俄罗斯国防部一直拒绝透露谁应该对此次袭击负责。据其所言，这些无人机是由GPS导航，航程达到100公里。它们所用的电子设备是现成的，每架无人机总费用大概只有几千美元。机身类似于俄罗斯的Orlan-10无人机，其中有几架曾被叙利亚的反叛份子击落。因此，这些无人机可能会是一些便宜的、被俘获后制造出的仿制品。 1.bore a resemblance to：与......相似 2.Orlan-10: 叙利亚叛军捕获的俄制orlan-10无人机相关链接:https://weibo.com/1499104401/EsjpjnIbW?type=comment These particular drones, the Russians claim, were intercepted before they could cause any damage. However, several Russian aircraft were apparently damaged in an attack in Syria four days earlier, which was also, according to some accounts, carried out by drones. And there will certainly be other assaults of this sort. Guerrillas have been using commercial drones since 2015. Islamic State (IS), one of the groups active in Syria, makes extensive use of quadcopters to drop grenades. In 2017 alone the group posted videos of over 200 attacks. IS has also deployed fixed-wing aircraft based on the popular Skywalker X8 hobby drone. These have longer ranges than quadcopters and can carry bigger payloads. Other groups in Syria, and in Iraq as well, employ similar devices. Their use has spread, too, to non-politically-motivated criminals. In October, four Mexicans allegedly linked to a drug cartel were arrested with a bomb-carrying drone. 俄罗斯声称，这些特殊的无人机在它们造成任何破坏之前就已经被拦截了。但是，据一些报道称，四天前有几架俄罗斯飞机在叙利亚的一次袭击中明显受损，而这些破坏正是由无人机造成的。当然还会有其他类似的袭击。自2015年以来，游击队一直在使用商用无人机。极端组织（IS)是活跃在叙利亚的组织之一，它们广泛使用四旋翼无人机来投掷手榴弹。仅在2017年，该组织（IS）就发布了超过200次的攻击视频。此外，该公司还基于高人气的Skywalker X8无人机部署了固定翼飞机。它们的续航里程比四旋翼无人机更长，而且可以携带更大的有效载荷。叙利亚和伊拉克的其他组织也采用了类似的设备。它们的使用也已经蔓延到了那些没有政治动机的罪犯身上。今年10月，四名涉嫌与贩毒集团勾结的墨西哥人因携带炸弹无人机被捕。 Cheap shots 暗算（阴招） Compared with military hardware, drone technology is both readily available and cheap. In 2014 a team at MITRE, a security think-tank based in Virginia, made a military-grade drone using commercial electronics, a 3D-printed airframe and open-source software. It cost $2,000. A whole squadron of such craft could thus be assembled for less than the cost of a single shoulder-fired missile, let alone a modern combat aircraft. America’s F-22 fighter, for example, costs over $300m. A B-2 bomber is even more expensive. 与军事硬件相比，无人机技术既方便又便宜。2014年，弗吉尼亚州安全智库MITRE的一个团队利用商用电子产品，3d打印的机身以及开源软件，制成了一款军用级无人机。它总共耗资2000美元。因此，一整个中队的无人机的组装成本将比一枚肩射导弹的成本还要低，更别说一架现代战斗机了。例如，美国的F-22战斗机造价超过3亿美元,而b-2轰炸机的造价更贵。 Even a lone drone can do plenty of damage. In Ukraine last year, drones operated by Russian separatists (or perhaps by Russian special forces) attacked several ammunition dumps with incendiary grenades. They destroyed a number of these dumps, in one case setting off explosions which blew up a staggering 70,000 tonnes of munitions. 即使是一架单独的无人机也能造成巨大的损害。去年在乌克兰，俄罗斯分裂分子(或俄罗斯特种部队)操控的无人机用燃烧弹袭击了多个弹药库。他们摧毁了许多弹药库，其中有一次爆炸炸毁了7万吨的军火。 A growing appreciation of the threat from small drones has led to a rush for protection. Lieutenant-General Stephen Townsend, a former commander of Operation Inherent Resolve, America’s anti-IS campaign, has called weaponised drones “the number one threat facing soldiers fighting IS”. An American navy budget document describes the navy as “scrambling to improve defences against the rapidly evolving capabilities of remote-controlled devices”. Existing defences are not geared up to cope with small drones, which are difficult to spot, identify and track, and which may be too numerous to stop. Jamming might be thought an obvious solution. Breaking the radio links between the operator and the drone, or confusing its GPS navigation, would make a drone crash or send it off course. Many jammers, with names like Dedrone, DroneDefender and DroneShield, have already been employed by various countries. Six of the drones in the Syrian attack were brought down by such jammers, the others by guns and missiles. 来自小型无人机的威胁与日俱增，防范措施的部署迫在眉睫。Stephen Townsend 中将是美国反极端组织IS战役的前指挥官，他把这些武装化的无人机称为“士兵反极端组织IS的头号威胁”。美国海军的一份预算文件称，海军正竭力提高防御力来应对远程控制设备的快速发展”。由于小型无人机很难瞄准、识别、追踪，也可能数量太多而无法制止，现有的防御系统还未准备好如何应对这些无人机。信号干扰可能被认为是一个显而易见的解决办法。打破操作者和无人机间的无线电联接，或者干扰GPS导航，能使无人机坠毁或偏离航线。各个国家都在使用干扰器，它们大多以Dedrone，DroneDefender 以及DroneShield命名。在叙利亚的袭击中，有六架无人机被此类干扰器击落，其余的被枪械和导弹击落。 Drones are, however, becoming increasingly autonomous. This means there is no operator link to jam. The Syrian drones were vulnerable to jamming because they relied on GPS and so crashed when their link to it was blocked. But new technologies such as optical navigation (which permits a drone to compare its surroundings with an on-board electronic map, and thus to know where it is) will make even GPS jammers useless. Hence the need for “kinetic solutions”, to shoot drones down. 然而，无人机变得更加自主。这意味着都没有操作员通讯可以干扰。叙利亚无人机之前容易受到干扰器的影响，是因为它们依靠GPS，当通讯被阻断时就会坠毁。但是新的技术，例如光学导航（无人机将对比周围环境与机上电子地图，从而获取位置），会使 GPS干扰器变得毫无用处。因此，需要“动力学解决方案”来击落无人机。 Small drones are surprisingly hard targets, however. Iraqi forces in Mosul used to joke that trying to deal with an IS drone attack was like being at a wedding celebration: everyone fired their Kalashnikovs into the air with no effect. A recent American army manual describes small drones as “very difficult to defeat using direct fire weapons”. A single rifle bullet is likely to miss. A shotgun would work, but only at close range, and would mean that squaddies had to carry around an extra weapon all the time on the off chance of a drone attack. Also, since drones are not of standard sizes, the range to one is hard to estimate. The manual therefore suggests that rather than aiming directly at a drone, the entire squad should fire their weapons at a fixed point ahead of it, hoping to bring the craft down with a curtain of fire. The manual also advises commanders that the best course of action may be “immediate relocation of the unit to a safer location”. 但是，小型无人机却极难击中。在摩苏尔的伊拉克军队曾经开玩笑说, 对付IS的无人机袭击就像是在婚礼庆典的现场：所有人对着空中扣动卡拉希尼科夫式冲锋枪，却毫无效果。最近的一份美国陆军手册称，小型无人机很难直接开火击中。莱福枪子弹很可能打不中。猎枪或能击中，但是距离一定要近，而且这就意味着士兵们为了对付偶尔可能发生的无人机袭击还要额外携带武器。而且因为无人机没有标准尺寸，射程很难判断。因此，手册中建议不要直接瞄准无人机，所有士兵应该一起瞄准无人机前方某一固定点开火，用一阵火力击落无人机。另外，手册还建议，指挥官们采取的最佳行动可能是“立刻将部队转移到安全场所"。 A numbers game 数字游戏 Among other projects, the American army is hurriedly upgrading its shoulder-launched Stinger missiles, which are used to attack low-flying aeroplanes and helicopters. Stingers were not designed to hit small drones, though, so the upgrade adds a proximity fuse which detonates when the missile is close enough to destroy a drone without actually having to make contact with it. Up to 600 “Manoeuvre Short Range Air Defence” teams equipped with these upgraded missiles will join American infantry units around the world. But the upgrades cost about $55,000 each (on top of the basic $120,000 cost of a Stinger), so only 1,147 are being purchased—about two per team, which is hardly enough to tackle a swarm of drones. 连同其他一些项目，美军部队急于升级其肩射式针刺导弹，用于攻击低空飞行的飞机和直升机。虽然针刺导弹并非用来袭击小型无人机，但是升级后新增的近炸引信，当导弹处于足以炸毁无人机的范围内就可以直接引爆，无需碰触无人机。多达600个“近距防空”小组配备了升级的导弹，他们将加入美国在世界各地的步兵部队。但是每个导弹升级需要花费5.5万美元（一枚针刺导弹升级最高可达12万美元），所以目前只购买了1147枚导弹，即每队2枚，并不足以应对一群无人机的袭击。 Another approach being tried out by the American army is a system called BLADE (Ballistic Low-Altitude Drone Engagement). This fits armoured vehicles’ existing machine-gun turrets with radar guidance and computer control. That should provide some protection, but may still be impotent against a mass attack. 另一个美国军方正努力的途径是“刀锋”系统（BLADE，低空弹道无人机协议），它适用于装甲车辆现有的、自带雷达导航和电脑控制功能的机枪炮塔。它会提供一定的保护，但对大规模的袭击来说依然束手无策。 A similar problem applies at sea, where billion-dollar ships might have their defences overwhelmed by squadrons of cheap, jerry-built drones. The mainstay of American naval air defence is Aegis, an orchestrated arrangement of radars, computers, missiles and cannons. The short-range element of Aegis is a Dalek-like, rapid-fire cannon called Phalanx, which spits out 75 rounds a second and can shoot down incoming cruise missiles. This will not cope well with lots of small drones, though. The navy is now upgrading Aegis’s software to handle multiple simultaneous incoming targets by scheduling bursts of fire to destroy as many members of a swarm as possible. It is doubtful, however, whether one gun could account for more than a handful of attackers coming in from all directions at once. An unclassified study suggests that it could be overwhelmed by as few as eight. 海上也有类似的情况，造价数十亿美元的船只可能会被一些廉价、粗制滥造的无人机击沉。美国海军最主要的空防就是“宙斯盾”系统，它精心地组合了雷达、电脑、导弹和大炮。“宙斯盾”的短程组件是一个类似“戴利克”的外观，能迅速开火的名为“密集阵”的加农炮，它可以每秒发射75轮并且可以击落进犯的巡航导弹。然而却不能很好应对大量的小型无人机。海军最近正在升级宙斯盾的软件，通过调度连发射击来应对同时到达的目标，并摧毁尽可能多的无人机。然而值得怀疑的是：一个机枪能否一次性应对来自各个方向同时出现的攻击者。一项非机密的研究表明,它只能应付八个。 1.Aegis,古希腊的羊皮盾（宙斯之盾），意思为庇护者，保护者。“宙斯盾”(Aegis)作战系统，是美国海军为了满足舰载防空系统的需要而开发的“先进的舰用导弹系统”(ASMS)。它的反应速度快，主雷达从搜索方式转为跟踪方式仅需0.05秒，能有效对付作掠海飞行的超音速反舰导弹；它的抗干扰性能也很强，可在严重电子干扰环境下正常工作；在反击能力方面，该系统作战火力猛烈，可综合指挥舰上的各种武器，同时拦截来自空中、水面和水下的多个目标，还可对目标威胁进行自动评估，从而优先击毁对自身威胁最大的目标；从可靠性来看，它能在无后勤保障的情况下，在海上连续可靠地工作40—60天。 2.戴利克 Dalek The Dalek，中文名为戴立克，是英国BBC著名科幻电视剧Doctor Who（《神秘博士》）中博士最大的对手，是宇宙中最恐怖的力量之一，拥有堪比时间领主的科技。 3.密集阵近程防御武器系统（Phalanx Close-In Weapon System），又译为方阵近迫武器系统（台湾）），通称密集阵近防系统，泛用于美国海军及二十个以上盟国海军的各级水面作战舰艇上，是一种以反制导弹为目的而开发的近程防御武器系统，最早由通用动力公司波莫纳厂制造，目前则由雷神公司制造 Developers of drone-countering measures hope to overcome that by using laser weapons. Lasers hit their targets at the speed of light, have an unlimited supply of ammunition and cost less than a dollar a shot. Though such weapons have yet to achieve their designers’ intentions of being able to shoot down crewed aircraft, they have been tested extensively and successfully against target drones. A variety of specifically anti-drone laser systems are now being developed, including Lockheed Martin’s Athena, Raytheon’s dune-buggy-mounted anti-drone laser, and LaWS, a creation of the American navy itself. 无人机计数器的开发者们想通过用激光武器来克服这个问题。激光能以光速打击他们的目标，没有弹药限制，花费也比射击少。虽然这样的武器还没达到设计者想的那样能击落空军的无人机，但它们做了大量的测试并成功地击落无人机。目前许多公司正在研发各种专门的反无人机激光系统，其中包括洛克希德·马丁公司的“雅典娜”系统，雷神公司的“沙丘骑士”反无人机激光武器以及美国海军自己研发的LaWS。 1.Drone-counter 这是一家2013年成立的美国公司，主要研究无人机的追踪、控制以及其开发反有害无人机的系统。 2.Lockheed Martin 创建于1912年，是一家美国航空航天制造商。公司在1995年与马丁·玛丽埃塔公司合并，并更名为洛克希德·马丁公司。 3.Raytheon 雷神公司，美国的大型国防合约商，总部设在马萨诸塞州的沃尔瑟姆。雷神在世界各地的雇员有73,000名，营业额约为200亿美元，其中超过90%来自国防合约。 The crucial question is how rapidly such a laser system can spot, track and aim at its target, and how long the beam must play on the target in order to destroy it. The whole process is likely to take several seconds, and until it is complete, the laser cannot move on to repeat the procedure on another target. As with Phalanx, a simple calculation suggests individual anti-drone lasers would be able to deal with only a small number of attackers. If even one drone got through, the laser would probably be the priority target—for destroying it would leave the way open for a subsequent, unchallenged attack. 关键的问题在于激光系统从发现、跟踪到瞄准目标能有多快，以及摧毁目标需要多长时间。整个过程可能数秒即可完成，在整个过程完成前，激光系统无法再次瞄准新目标。与美国密集阵近防系统（Phalanx）一样，简单计算表明单独的反无人机激光仅能够对付少量攻击者。只要有一架无人机穿过防护屏障，激光系统就会优先成为攻击目标，因为只要破坏激光防护这道屏障，就可以成功为随后的、无阻碍攻击开路。 Phalanx：https://baike.baidu.com/item/美国密集阵(Phalanx)近程武器系统/12611167 An American army document from 2016 thus emphasises the importance of stopping drones “left of launch”—that is, before they can take off. IS drone workshops and operators have been attacked to stop the drone threat. The Russians say they destroyed the unnamed group responsible for the mass drone attack in January, along with their drone-assembly and storage facility in Idlib, using laser-guided artillery. But when there are no runways or hangars, and drones can be operated from houses and garages, finding bases to attack is far from easy. Until adequate defences are in place, then, guerrilla drone swarms will be a real danger. 2016年美方的一份军方文件强调，要在无人机起飞前就将它击毁。极端组织IS无人机工作间和工作人员曾遭到攻击，以阻止无人机的威胁。俄罗斯人宣称，他们使用激光制导的炮弹摧毁了一个无名团伙，以及他们在伊德利卜的无人机装置和存储设施，该团伙在1月份发动了大规模无人机攻击。然而，如果没有跑道或者飞机库，无人机可以从平民房或者车库完成操作，那么要找到并攻击基地绝非易事。除非防御设施到位，否则游击队的无人机群将成为真正的威胁。 俄罗斯用激光炮弹摧毁了无人机工厂新闻链接： http://mini.eastday.com/mobile/180113184543392.html 翻译组： Frank，男，小硕，经济学人爱好者 Xingyi，男，小硕，经济学人爱好者 Minjia，女，广告策划，经济学人读者 Yifei，女，英专硕士，专八，catti二笔 Damon，男，建筑民工，经济学人爱好者 校核组： Helga，女，笔译民工，经济学人爱好者 Vambie，女，互联网民工，经济学人爱好者 3 观点 |评论|思考 本次观点由Joel独家奉献 Joel，男，产品运营，科技类外刊爱好者 展开我的观点时，先来一段道听途说的趣事，你知道为什么大疆无人机现在全世界这么火吗？原因是大疆无人机被IS改造成投掷手榴弹的战斗鸡去骚扰伊拉克政府军 http://m.guancha.cn/military-affairs/2017_01_20_390408.shtml 传统空战中，最大的战损在于优秀飞行员。从这一点上说，无人机为主的空战就没有了严格意义上的战损，因为一战打下来，损失的不过是一些飞行器而已，作为最重要的飞行员(或者我称呼他们为无人机操控员）并不会随着无人机的坠毁而死亡。 讲到战损，我提一下二战，二战后期空战惨烈，日本那时最缺失的不是优秀的战斗机（日本的零式战斗机在那时是世界上数一数二的优秀战斗机），而是优秀的飞行员，未来的战斗也是一样，当到了战争最残酷绞肉阶段，优秀飞行员大量战死沙场，而当后续飞行员的培养又跟不上时，就会出现有机无人能开的悲剧。就像日本那样，所以无人机在未来飞行员培养成本越来越高，培养进度却很缓慢的情况下，凸显出了其巨大优势。 除了战损这一因素，无人机的另一个优势是尺寸和飞行速度。因为不需要载人，所以无人机的尺寸可以很大，也可以很小，可以开的非常高（近地轨道），也可以开的非常快（超过4马赫），完全不用去考虑飞行员的生理承受问题。 4 愿景 小组 小编理工男，建筑底层民工，经济学人铁粉，和小伙伴(经济学人小群不超过8个人）看经济学人到现在已经将近700多天。现有一经济学人大群,如果您也有兴趣，可加入我们学习小组，群规甚严，请三思后而入群，WeChat : foxwulihua |
|
|
