【原】TE||Game of phones

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感谢思维导图作者

Bruce,爱好英语，经济学人爱好者

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Game of phones

流媒体大战之掌上权游

英文部分选自经济学人Business版块

Streaming-video wars

Game of phones

流媒体大战之掌上权游

HBO prepares to challenge Netflix in streaming video

HBO将在流媒体领域挑战Netflix

In late 2012, just before the release of “House of Cards”, Ted Sarandos, chief content officer of Netflix, declared: “The goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us”. Few took him seriously. HBO had a globally recognised brand with some of the best programmes in television, including “Game of Thrones”. Yet Netflix would go on to surpass HBO in subscribers, money spent on programming and, this year, Emmy-award nominations.

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2012年底，就在《纸牌屋》上线之前，Netflix首席内容运营官特德·萨兰多斯 （Ted Sarandos）宣称，Netflix的发展目标是“在HBO变成Netflix之前，让Netflix首先变成HBO。没有人把他的话当真，因为彼时HBO拥有一个全球知名的品牌，该品牌旗下涵盖一系列最卖座的电视节目，《权利的游戏》也在其中。但现如今，Netflix的订阅者数量、节目制作上的投入以及今年的艾美奖提名已经且将会持续超越HBO。

Meanwhile HBO did not try to become Netflix. It prioritised profits over growth as Jeff Bewkes, then chief of Time Warner, HBO’s parent, looked to sell the company. HBO achieved enviable operating-profit margins of 30-40% ($2.2bn on $6.3bn of revenue in 2017), and was comparatively restrained in its pursuit of high-profile shows (Netflix committed $100m in outbidding HBO for “House of Cards”, and was ridiculed for it). The network also lagged behind in the technologies of personalisation and streaming that made Netflix a killer app. At one point Reed Hastings, boss of Netflix, puckishly joked that the password used by Richard Plepler, his HBO counterpart, for online access was “Netflix bitch”.

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与此同时，HBO却没有谋求成为Netflix。HBO优先考虑的是利润而非壮大公司规模，母公司时代华纳首席执行官杰夫·比克斯（Jeff Bewkes）打算出售HBO。2017年，HBO实现了令人羡慕的30-40％的营业利润率，羡煞众人（收入63亿美元，利润22亿美元），但在高收视率节目方面相对保守（Netflix以1亿美元的价格击败HBO购得《纸牌屋》，后者因此遭到嘲笑）。HBO在个性化和流媒体技术方面也落后于Netflix，而Netflix恰恰借助这些技术成为 “杀手级应用”。Netflix的老板里德 · 哈斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）一度调侃他的竞争对手HBO的老板称，理查德· 普莱普勒（Richard Plepler）的上网密码就是“Netflix，你个婊子”。

注释：

1.HBO不为追求高收视率而绞尽脑汁，HBO管理层最感兴趣的是“总体订户满意度”（TSS，total subscriber satisfaction），即并不是多少人看了，而是那些观看的人中欣赏这部作品的人的比率。

2.关于Netflix拿下《纸牌屋》首播权的衍生阅读：

http://daily.zhihu.com/story/3826805

Now HBO is preparing to launch its counter-attack, backed by a phone giant. In June AT&T finalised its $109bn purchase of Time Warner. The wireless firm, which is also America’s largest distributor of pay-tv, views itself as locked in an existential battle with Netflix, Amazon, Facebook and Google for people’s attention. Facebook and YouTube each command screen time from about 2bn users a month, while Netflix wins about two hours of viewing a day per subscription. With its newly-acquired media assets, AT&T wants to match that kind of engagement.

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现在，在手机巨头的支持下，HBO准备对Netflix发起反攻。今年6月，美国电信企业AT&T以1090亿美元收购了时代华纳。这家无线电通讯企业，也是美国最大的付费电视发行商，认为自己正处于一场争夺用户关注度的生存之战中，Netflix, Amazon, Facebook and Google等强敌环伺。每月Facebook和YouTube分别赢得20亿人次的浏览量，而每个订阅者每天浏览Netflix的时间也有约2小时。AT&T希望凭借其新收购的媒体资产，能够获取类似的用户参与度。

Ma Bell rides out

贝尔大妈（AT&T）（欲）平安度过难关

AT&T is pinning its hopes in part on a new subscription streaming service to be rolled out in 2019 under Time Warner’s new banner of WarnerMedia. A bigger HBO will be the “cornerstone” of that strategy, says John Stankey, boss of WarnerMedia. The phone firm hopes video customers will become wireless customers, and vice versa, driving down both churn and the cost of acquiring subscribers. It will join a crowded field: Disney and Apple are launching streaming-video services next year.

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AT&T在某种程度上正将其希望放在一档全新的流媒体订阅服务上，2019年该服务将在时代华纳的新品牌华纳媒体上推出。时代媒体的老板约翰·斯坦基 （John Stankey）表示，一个不断壮大的HBO正是此战略的“基石”。这家电信公司希望视频节目的消费者们能够成为其无线客户，反之亦然，以此来减少客户流失，降低拓展订阅用户的成本。这个市场的竞争将趋于白热化：迪士尼和苹果也将于明年推出流媒体服务。

注释：

churn , short for churn rate, Churn - The term used to describe turnover rate of subscribers to a service or product. 订户流动率 - 此术语用于说明一项服务或产品的订户流动速度.选自《金山词霸》

HBO is not far behind Netflix in subscribers, with more than 100m worldwide (142m when counting subscribers to Cinemax, HBO’s other premium service), including about 40m subscribers in America. Netflix has nearly 60m subscribers in America and 137m globally. But most of HBO’s customers are acquired through a third-party distributor, depriving it of direct customer relationships and data.

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HBO在订阅用户数量方面与 Netflix差距不大，其全球范围内订阅用户数量逾1亿（如果算上旗下的精选服务提供公司Cinemax的用户，订阅用户数量达1.42亿），包含约4000万的美国订阅用户。而Netflix有将近6000万的美国用户和1.37亿的全球用户。但HBO的大部分用户是通过第三方分销商获得，因而其无法与用户建立直接联系，获取相关数据。

Under AT&T, HBO will have a better crack at both. AT&T already offers HBO-over-the-internet in America in high-end wireless plans and in packages with Directv Now, a streaming pay-tv service (and will do the same with its new streaming product). Eventually AT&T will allow HBO to sell more directly to consumers around the world. With accompanying investments in technology HBO should get a lot more data about what those subscribers are watching.

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并入AT&T后，HBO在这两个方面都会得到很大改善。AT&T已经在美国的高端无线网络计划以及流媒体付费电视服务Directv Now的套餐中推出了在线HBO服务（其后推出的流媒体新产品也将如此）。最终AT&T会让HBO更直接地面向全球消费者。伴随着技术方面的投资，HBO应该能够在订阅用户观看内容方面获取更多的数据。

And the new HBO will have a lot more shows to watch. Its budget for programming had grown at a snail’s pace under Time Warner, to $2.3bn in 2017; Netflix increases its spending on programming by an entire HBO or more each year, to $12bn-13bn in 2018. Under at&t, HBO will spend several hundred millions more on original programming next year, and more than that thereafter. Mr Plepler, who has fretted in the past that he could not say “yes” to everything he wanted, has already started saying “yes” to a lot more. HBO’s slate of big-budget shows in the coming years now includes adaptations of “The Time Traveller’s Wife”, “His Dark Materials” and “Watchmen”. HBO is also developing a prequel to its biggest hit, “Game of Thrones”. Mr Stankey says he wants “a more muscular HBO” that engages customers so regularly that they consider it important enough to keep year round.

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新HBO将有更多的电视剧上线。其节目预算在时代华纳时期增长十分缓慢，2017年的节目制作投入只有23亿美元；Netflix每年在节目制作上的支出增长相当于整个HBO或更多，2018年将高达 120亿至123亿美元。在a t&t的领导下，HBO明年将在原创节目上多投入数亿元，其后将投入更多。过去，普莱普勒因不能放开手脚做他想做的事情而烦躁不安，现在能做主的事情则比过去多了许多。未来几年HBO的大制作电视剧名单包括《时间旅行者的妻子》改编版、《黑暗物质》、《守望者》。HBO也在开发大热剧集《冰与火之歌》的前传。斯坦基表示希望看到一个更为强大的HBO，更好的吸引老客户，使其认识到必须全年订阅HBO才可以。

 But HBO will not try to muscle its way into becoming another Netflix, which releases hundreds of original feature films, documentaries and series a year. Netflix sells its product on volume, personalisation and ease of user experience. HBO by contrast wins subscribers through a few hit shows and a reputation for quality television, which could be wrecked by an over-rapid expansion. As the network’s margins may be eroded in the near term, AT&T will need to be cautious. WarnerMedia will already take a hit to revenues as it pulls its content from Netflix to beef up its offer.

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但是HBO不会强迫自己发展成另一个Netflix，即每年发行数以百计的原创剧情片、纪录片和连续剧。Netflix产品的卖点是数量、个性化和用户体验的便利化。相比之下，HBO凭借几部热门剧集和提供优质电视节目的口碑来赢得订阅用户，节目质量却可能会因业务极速扩张而下滑。网络利润率在短期内可能减少，AT&T须引起重视。为了增强自己的实力而从Netflix上获取内容的华纳传媒，也会在营收方面遭受损失。

注：

1、muscle in (on sb/sth)：(informal, disapproving) 强行干涉；粗暴干涉；强行进入

2、Personalisation 人格化，个性化

3、Wrecked 毁坏[毁灭]某物( wreck的过去式和过去分词 );使（船舶）失事，使遇难，使下沉

4、take a hit 主动出击;遭受重击

beef up改善；加强；改进；提高make strong or stronger

Yet HBO will still face a challenge to maintain its reputation as it expands. One Hollywood executive reckons that its schedule of original shows is about to double in size in the next few years. Among tv networks, he says, “I don’t think anybody has ever tried to scale it at the level that HBO is attempting to scale it.”

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但HBO仍将面临另一个挑战——在不断扩张的进程中继续维持声誉。某好莱坞高管估计HBO原创剧数量将在未来几年内翻番。他还补充道：“纵观其他电视网平台，我认为他们从未尝试像HBO这般扩张。”

AT&T’s bosses show signs of understanding this. Randall Stephenson, its chief executive, has referred to HBO as Tiffany’s to Netflix’s Walmart. Still, making the transition under AT&T will not be easy. In June Mr Stankey told a gathering of HBO employees that the year ahead would be such hard work at times that “it feels like childbirth”. AT&T is expected to surround HBO’s programmes with a variety of assets from Warner Media, from Warner Bros studio’s films (such as “The Dark Knight”) and tv shows (like “Friends”) to Turner’s library of classic films. Under Time Warner those assets were farmed out to a wide array of outlets including Netflix, HBO, Cinemax, Turner’s cable networks and niche streaming services like Film Struck (which will shut this month). If they are consolidated in one streaming product, to be sold alongside HBO, subscribers would in theory have something else to watch between servings of “True Detective” and “Westworld”. “There are nights you want to go to a four- or five-star restaurant,” Mr Stankey says. “But we also know there are nights where you want to get a cheeseburger.”

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有迹象显示AT&T的老板们对此表示理解。其首席执行官兰德尔·斯蒂芬森（Randall Stephenson）已将HBO比作Tiffany，Netflix比作沃尔玛，然而，即便在 AT&T的带领之下，HBO转型也非易事。今年6月，斯坦基在一次HBO员工聚会上表示，未来一年将会像“分娩”般艰苦。AT&T计划为HBO提供各种影视资源，其中涵盖华纳媒体的各种资源，华纳兄弟工作室的各种影片（如《黑暗骑士》）、电视剧集（如《老友记》）及特纳的经典电影库。时代华纳把其旗下这些资产分包给一系列的分销商，譬如Netflix、HBO、Cinemax，特纳有线电视网络以及Film Struck（本月即将关闭）这些小众流媒体服务商。如果将这些一并整合为一个流媒体产品与HBO一起销售，理论上，订阅用户则能够在《真探》和《西部世界》之外找到其他的选择。斯坦基先生称：“正如某几个晚上你想去四星级或五星级餐厅， 但我们总也有那么几个晚上想吃芝士汉堡啊。”

注：
Farm out: grant the services of or the temporary use of, for a fee 转租，出租

Example: Farmers sometimes take out loans from money lenders who charge high rates of interest.

农民有时会向放贷人贷款，而且他们收取的利息很高。

翻译组：

Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Andy，男，咨询民工，经济学人爱好者

Louise，女，会计民工，经济学人爱好者

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

校核组：

Ema, 女，外贸民工，经济学人粉丝

Li Xia，女，爱爬山的健身小白， 美食狂人

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观点|评论|思考

本次观点由Forest独家奉献

Forest，女，自由职业，经济学人爱好者

商业战略中的一个中心问题就是如何组织纵向链条。传统上大家关注的是这是由一家企业完成所有活动好呢？还是依赖市场中的几家相对独立的企业来完成比较好呢？

如今，注意力为王。可是注意力是那么一个不稳定的东西，智能手机和pad滑动页面易如反掌。对于传媒企业来说，受众的注意力纵然翩翩而至，可是如果没有持续性的热点内容可以追踪，那么，它们也不过就是一个过客而已。所以内容和发行要亲密合作，无缝连接变得日益必须。

号称重质不重量的内容为王的HBO，数年来因为在流媒体技术服务上不占优势，逐渐作别于黄金年代。为了和更亲近受众，数度努力不灵之后，直到现时顺着供应链条向下归顺技术大咖AT&T。简而言之， HBO没有的，AT&T都有，不过这样两个气质完全不同的两个公司，能不能两位一体还要拭目以待。

由一个愤怒的程序猿创建的Netflix，相对于HBO而言，走的完全是不同路线。Netflix从传媒纵向链条的由下而上逆袭， HBO没有的，曾经忽视的，它都擅长。HBO有的，它也在学，全面力拓，还更加海量。依托于技术服务优势的Netflix，如今在内容领域早已风生水起，气势逼人。不同于HBO间断的剧集供给，它密集的投放模式，对于喜爱快消费的新生一代来说，吸引力尤大。

这是流媒体初创乃至繁荣的时代，各家纷纷自建兵马打造大而全小而全。向下兼容和向上拓展，究竟花落谁家？还是它们共存共荣，最终日趋相似？

历史的选择，唯有翘首以待。

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