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1 导读 感谢思维导图作者 Monica, 女，可以做艺术家和锯木头 2 听力|精读|翻译|词组  Bud far from Stella 百威完全不同于时代啤酒 英文部分选自经济学人Business版块 Anheuser-Busch InBev 百威英博啤酒集团 Bud far from Stella 百威完全不同于时代啤酒（集团旗下另一啤酒品牌） The world’s mightiest beermaker needs a fresh way to grow 世界最强啤酒制造商亟需谋求新的发展之道 Snooty ale connoisseurs mock Budweiser’s usurped title of “King of Beers”. No one, however, quibbles that Bud’s purveyor, Anheuser-Busch InBev (Abi), reigns over global brewing. The all-conquering firm now sells almost three Olympic-sized swimming pools of beer an hour—more than its three nearest rivals combined. Yet even as profits have frothed, weariness has descended upon the head that wears the crown. Abi’s prospects, once as golden as its Corona lager, have assumed the cloudier quality of a Belgian witbier. 傲慢自负的啤酒专家们嘲弄百威“啤酒之王”的称号名不副实。但百威啤酒的制造商百威英博称霸全球酿酒业却是不争的事实。这家公司所向披靡，每小时就可以卖出几乎三个奥运会游泳池大小的啤酒—这样的成绩比紧随其后的三家竞争对手销量的总和还要多。尽管利润如泡沫般丰厚，但那头戴皇冠的面容已尽显疲态。百威英博的前景曾经如旗下科罗娜啤酒般璀璨，但现在却比比利时白啤更加愁云惨淡。 vi . froth（又作 froth up=bubble up ) if a liquid froths, it produces or contains a lot of small bubbles on top 起泡沫 When you first open the bottle the beer will froth for a few seconds. 刚打开瓶盖时，啤酒会起几秒钟的泡沫。 形容发展迅速，茁壮生长，比喻意.=spring up Abi, which is nominally based in the Flemish city of Leuven but run out of New York, is not just much bigger than its rivals, selling one in four beers worldwide. It also generates around half the industry’s global profits. Its gross operating margins were 40% in 2018, more than double the average for other listed brewers—and stellar by the standards of firms that peddle any kind of consumer goods. It has devoted managers, nearly all recruited out of university. The looming presence of Abi’s boss, Carlos Brito, in the company’s corridors, can feel almost eerie. Employees’ fealty to “Brito”, as the methodical Brazilian is universally known, is reminiscent of General Electric under Jack Welch. 虽然名义上，百威英博总部在比利时勒芬佛兰德斯市，但市场早已超出美国。此外，它的体量远超其他竞争对手，销量占世界啤酒销量的四分之一。它的利润也占据了全球啤酒业利润的一半。2018年，百威英博总营业利润率为40%，比其他上市酿酒公司平均利润率的两倍还多，以任何生活消费品公司的标准来衡量，都是一流的。百威英博几乎所有管理人员都有大学文凭，尽职尽责。虽然有点怪异，但你很有可能在公司的走廊里碰到百威英博的CEO卡洛斯·布里托（Carlos Brito）。众所周知，这位巴西人有条不紊，员工们对他的忠诚度之高不免让人想起杰克·韦尔奇（Jack Welch）领导下的通用电气公司（财富五百强公司之一，总部设在美国。） Investors’ similar devotion to the company as a whole is increasingly being tested. The first set of worries is specific to Abi. 投资者们都很钟爱这家公司，然而这种方式正日益受到考验。第一轮忧思缘起于百威英博。 Its agglutinated name points to a firm whose trajectory has been set by financiers, not brewers. At its core is a trio of Brazilian investors best-known for later starting 3g capital, a private-equity fund which has snapped up other food firms such as Burger King and Kraft Heinz. They used Brahma, a Brazilian beer firm they acquired in 1989, as a platform to buy up rivals the world over: Interbrew, a Belgian brewer which makes Stella Artois, in 2004; Anheuser-Busch, the American owner of Budweiser, in 2008; and sabMiller, its biggest remaining rival, in 2016. Mr Brito is their main lieutenant. He has led Abi since 2005 atop a Brazilian-heavy management team with a lust for trimming fat from flabby conquests. 从百威英博这个组合版的名字可以看出，这家公司的发展方向是由出资财团决定的，而非酿酒商自身。公司的核心是三个巴西投资者。他们之后成立了3G资本，为人们熟知。3G资本是一家私募股权基金，它收购了汉堡王和卡夫亨氏等其他食品公司。他们将1989年并购的巴西布哈马啤酒公司作为平台，收购世界范围内其他竞争对手：2014年收购了出品时代啤酒的比利时酿酒商英特布鲁，2008年收购了出品百威啤酒的美国安海斯-布希公司，2016年收购了最大的竞争对手南非米勒酿酒公司。CEO布里托先生是他们主要的执行者。从2005年起，他就带领着这支以巴西人为主的管理团队，领导百威英博在行业里征战厮杀，从那些早已日落西山的对手们手中争夺肥肉。 The successful two-pronged strategy of serial acquisitions and cost-cutting appears to be nearing its limits, however. Having consolidated the fragmented beer industry—four of the ten biggest brewers in 1990 are part of its empire—no large rivals remain to be taken over without goading competition authorities. As for cost-cutting, by the end of the year will have wrung out the last of the $3.2bn of annual savings it expected from sab 但是，往日连续收购和削减开支双管齐下的成功策略似乎已达到极限。百威英博将彼时零散的啤酒行业整合。该产业内曾有十家大型啤酒商，而在1990年，其中的四家已在百威英博的麾下。同时没有刺激的竞争管理机构的介入，再加上所有的强劲对手都已收购。至于节流，到年末，百威英博只能从南非米勒公司中挤出32亿美元，这已然到达极限。 注：Be near its limits = peak At the same time, cost controls espoused by Abi and its 3g-run cousins—starting with every manager having to justify every dollar of spending anew each year—have come under scrutiny. Kraft Heinz’s shares tumbled in February after it wrote down the value of its assets by $15bn. Many took it to be a tacit admission that its cost-cutting had done the business harm. The announcement by Kraft Heinz on May 6th that it would have to restate nearly three years of results, after an internal probe unearthed “misconduct” in its procurement procedures, though not directly linked to “zero-based budgeting” or 3g’s other distinctive management techniques, nevertheless cast a shadow over them. 同时，百威英博与其他3G资本的子公司都支持成本控制的策略-首先是要求每位经理人证明：每年花出的每一分钱都产出价值。这种方式已经受到监管。2月，卡夫亨氏公司公布其资产为150亿美元，致其股价大跌。许多人对此心照不宣，认为这种手段损害了公司利益。5月6日，卡夫亨氏公司发表声明称在一项内部调查中发现其采购程序中出现“不当行为”，需重新发布近三年的数据。尽管此项问题并不与零基预算或其他3G资本特色鲜明的管理手段直接相关，却也给它们蒙上一层阴影。 Mr Brito is adamant that problems at Kraft Heinz are not Abi’s concern. His own cost-curbing philosophy—to redirect spending from wasteful things to wiser ones like marketing, he says, not strip expenses willy-nilly—does seem less draconian than Kraft Heinz’s. “We are not a 3g company,” he insists. Investors are not so sure. Abi’s own share price dipped briefly in February in the wake of Kraft Heinz’s impairment. Abi’s erstwhile top marketer has been parachuted in to fix the food giant. 布里托先生态度坚决，认为卡夫亨氏公司发生的问题与百威英博并不相关。他崇尚的节流理念是将浪费的支出投入到更为明智的地方—譬如市场营销，而并非毫无章法地削减开销。但这其实与卡夫亨氏公司的策略并无二样，同样残忍。他坚称百威英博并非3G资本旗下的一员。投资方持审慎态度。由于卡夫亨氏公司二月的丑闻，百威英博股价也总体下跌。百威英博的老牌顶级营销人员也被借调重振这家食品大亨。 Either way, Abi needs a new growth strategy, having squeezed its historic one dry. Expanding its small non-beer offering—buying Coca-Cola, for example, or Diageo, which mainly sells spirits—once seemed like the obvious thing to do. But a daring takeover seems unlikely. The £79bn ($98bn) bid for sabMiller three years ago landed Abi with net debt of over $100bn, nearly five times last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Repayment has been slow, not least because Abi has borrowed largely in dollars and euros but earns most of its money in the fragile currencies of volatile emerging markets like Brazil and South Africa. 无论如何，百威英博的增长策略已然是昨日黄花了，目前亟需全新的增长策略。扩大非啤酒行业市场规模，如收购可口可乐公司或者主要贩卖烈酒的迪阿吉奥公司曾一度视为自然而然的恰当选择。但百威英博不太可能大胆收购。三年前，百威英博以790亿英镑（980亿美元）的价格收购南非米勒公司，最终以净债务1000多亿美元收场。这个数目几乎是去年抛开利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润等支出的总盈利额的五倍。同时，百威英博回款缓慢。这尤其是因为百威英博大多以美元欧元借款，收入却是跌宕起伏的新兴市场的货币，如以巴西和南非这些地区的货币收款。 Worries about debt caused its shares to tumble by 38% in 2018, a third straight year of decline. The share price has recovered half of last year’s losses, though it still looks cheap relative to expected earnings compared with its two closest rivals, Heineken and Carlsberg—Abi’s superior margins not with standing. It is also still down by a third since the sab deal, even as the shares of smaller rivals have risen smartly. 2018年，对于债务问题的担忧导致股票下跌了38%，这已经是连续第三年下降了。虽然目前股票价格已经恢复到去年下降额的一半，但与紧随其后的两家竞争对手喜力和嘉士伯相比，仍然看起来不算有价值。百威英博不再具有优势。自收购南非米勒公司以来，它的股价已经下降了三分之一，而占股份较小竞争对手们的股价却大幅增长。 In a humbling turn, Abi’s board (which the Brazilian investors control alongside a group of Belgian heirs) halved its dividend in October to pay down debt. On May 7th it confirmed rumours that it is exploring listing a minority stake in its Asian operation, estimated to be worth perhaps a quarter of the group’s $172bn market value. 去年10月，百威英博董事会（由巴西投资者和一群比利时继承人共同掌管）将公司股息减半以偿还债务，此举实在自贬。5月7日，该公司确认了将亚洲业务的少数股权上市的谣言。据估计，这些股权价值公司总市值1720亿美元的四分之一。（即430亿美元） No wonder, Mr Brito says reducing debt is his priority. More specifically, analysts reckon, he wants to make it more manageable by boosting profits. Now that Kraft Heinz’s woes make some investors take a leery view of Abi’s fat margins, lest they too are down to indiscriminate cost-slashing, the focus has turned to increasing earnings by growing revenues from beer. 难怪，布里托先生说他的首要任务是减少债务。更具体而言，分析师认为，他有意通过促进盈利来增加可操控性。鉴于卡夫亨氏的困境让一些投资者对英博的“丰厚利润”持怀疑态度，以防他们也不加选择地消减成本，重心已经转向增加收入，通过增加啤酒营收来提高利润。 Beermaking is not what it used to be, however. Brewers are seeing demand for their tipple dry up. In America, Abi’s biggest single market by revenue, beer is losing “share of throat”, in industry jargon, to wine and spirits, just as people are drinking less booze. The only rival of any size whose shares have underperformed Abi’s is predominantly American Molson Coors. Youngsters across the rich world are spending less time in the pub and more at the gym (or smoking cannabis, another alternative to beer). Nearly a quarter of young Brits are teetotal. 然而，啤酒市场已不复从前。酿酒商发现，人们对于烈酒的渴望正在骤降，前途渺茫。即便在美国-以收益看，百威英博市场一家独大之地，啤酒正在把“喉咙割据”（行业术语）让位于葡萄酒和烈酒-正如人们开始减少喝酒一样。唯一竞争对手-美国的莫尔森康胜也逊于百威英博。富裕国家的年轻人在酒吧的时间越来越少，而在健身房的时间越来越多（或者抽烟是啤酒的另一种替代品）。近四分之一的年轻英国人滴酒不沾。 Consumption is rising in poor countries, where 57% of Abis revenues now come from, in part thanks to sab. But even there growth has slowed. Beer sales used to closely track the global economy, notes Ed Mundy at Jefferies, a brokerage. In future he expects them to grow a third as fast as GDP -or a paltry 1% a year. 贫困国家的消费正在增长，百威英博57%的收入来自贫困国家。能有此成绩，一定程度归功于南非米勒酿酒公司。但即使是在这些国家，营业额增长也有所放缓。经纪公司杰富瑞（Jefferies）的埃德·蒙迪（Ed Mundy）指出，过去的啤酒销售情况很大程度受全球经济影响。埃德·蒙迪估计，未来啤酒销售的增长将达到GDP的三分之一，或每年1%的速度。 Such trends explain why Abi shipped barely 0.3% more pints in 2018 than the previous year. Exclude acquisitions and Abi has not increased beer volumes in over a decade. Sales growth, of 4.7% a year since 2008, is largely thanks to what Mr Brito calls revenue management initiatives or, in plain English, selling Abis existing beers at higher prices. 这一趋势可以解释为何百威英博在2018年的出货量仅比去年增加0.3%品脱。过去十年间，若不包括收购，百威英博的啤酒销量并无增长。自2008年以来，百威英博啤酒年销量增长为4.7%，这很大程度上归功于布里托先生所谓的“收入管理举措”策略——简单而言，就是以更高的价格销售百威英博目前的啤酒。 Ale to the chief “贵族”啤酒 Mr Brito wants to emulate the spirits-and-wine trade, where consumers pay vastly higher prices for top brands than for mainstream ones. For example, Abi owns lots of labels which are nothing special at home but marketed as posh overseas: Budweiser, Americas bog-standard lager, sells for a premium in China; Stella, which Europeans quaff at football games, is served with three-course dinners across the pond. Around the world, dozens of craft breweries that ooze local charm and anti-capitalist mystique -think Camden Town Brewery or Goose Islandare, in fact, owned by Abi. But growth in craft-beer consumption, too, looks flat; people will only pay so much for ultra-hoppy ales. 布里托先生希望效仿烈酒和葡萄酒行业的生态，即相比大众品牌，消费者为顶级品牌支付的价格更高。比如，百威英博旗下许多品牌在本土并无特别之处，但在海外市场却被标榜为高档品牌：在美国相当普通的百威啤酒（Budweiser），在中国能以更高价售出；欧洲人在足球比赛中畅饮的斯特拉（Stella），在大西洋对岸却成为与三道菜正餐搭配的“高品位”啤酒。世界各地，几十家手工酿酒厂散发着当地魅力和反资本主义的神秘感——想想卡姆登镇啤酒厂（Camden Town Brewery）或古斯岛（Goose Island）就会有更直观的感受——实际上都归百威英博所有。但是，工艺啤酒的增长也相当无力；人们在未来只会为以高端啤酒花为原料的啤酒付更高的价钱。 Analysts fret that Abi’s margins in emerging markets may come under attack next. Competition there used to be as weak as a Bud Light. Brewers did not unduly tread on rivals historic patches. No longer. The competitive intensity has gone up a notch in recent years, says Trevor Stirling of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research group. Countries that used to be beer monopolies, or at worst comfortable duopolies, are being besieged by outsiders. Heineken is making a big push into Brazil and Colombia, which would once have been considered an act of lèse-majesté against Abi. In November Heineken sealed a joint venture with China Resources, that country’s biggest brewer. The listing of Abi’s Asian business, if it happens, may help it retaliate by acquiring its way to a bigger market share in places where it is weak. 分析师担心百威英博在新兴市场的利润率可能会在未来面临冲击。过去，新兴市场的竞争并不激烈，连表现平庸的蓝百威清啤还能在市场中占据一席之地。那时，酿酒商并没有过分侵占竞争对手的历史领地。然而，好景不长。研究机构桑福德·伯恩斯坦（Sanford C. Bernstein）的特雷弗·斯特林（Trevor Stirling）称：“近年来，新兴市场的竞争正趋于激烈。”过去那些啤酒垄断国家，或最不济也是舒适的双头垄断国家，现在正遭到新入局者的围攻。比如，喜力正大举进军巴西和哥伦比亚市场，而在过去，入局这两个市场无异于是对百威英博的“君主亵渎”行为。去年11月，喜力与华润啤酒（中国最大的啤酒生产商）成立了一家合资企业，展开长期战略合作。若百威英博的亚洲业务展开，可能帮助公司在先前不占有利地位的地区收获更大的市场份额。 Mr Brito insists growth is still there if you know where to look for it. Non-alcoholic beers have got tastier thanks to improved recipes and are also growing quickly; Mr Brito theatrically cracked one open at Abis annual shareholder meeting last month. Once considered the preserve of young men, beer is increasingly marketed to women and older folk. First-quarter results reported on May 7th suggest Mr Brito could be on to something. Revenue grew by a respectable 5.9% year on year. 布里托先生坚称只要找到合适的切入点，就仍然有发展空间。由于改良了配方，不含酒精的啤酒味道得到了改善，销量增长迅速。上个月百威英博的年度股东大会，布里托先生还夸张地开了一瓶。啤酒曾被视为年轻男人的专利，现在开始逐渐进入女性和老年人市场。5月7日发布的第一季度报表显示，布里托先生似乎有所动作。公司收入与去年相比增长了5.9%，甚是可观。 Sceptics question whether a corporate culture built around Excel wizards can be retooled into one where marketers eek out incremental market-share gains, quarter after quarter. Mr Brito may yet prove the doubters wrong. He betrays no hint of abdicating. But if he has learned anything, it is that reigning over the brewing world is more work than seizing the crown. 持怀疑态度者质疑这样一个把业绩为王作为企业文化是否能在每个季度持续扩张市场份额。布里托先生已经证明了这些质疑的错误性。他没有任何要退位的迹象。但若说他在这一过程中学到了什么的话，那便是得江山易，守江山难。 翻译组： Yao，男，英专本科生，北大苗子 Sophie, 女，HR民工，经济学人粉丝 Hikali，女，商科在读，英语日语死忠粉 VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者 Hannah，女，公立高中英语老师，TE爱好者 校核组： Humi，女，CATer，Catti二笔 Monica, 女，英专大四，MTI已录取 3 观点|评论|思考 本次评论由Forest独家奉献 Forest，女，自由职业，保持与自己的距离 1938年，美国作家菲茨杰拉德写道：“一流智慧的检验标准，是既有能力在脑中同时维持两种截然相反的观念，也有能力维持正常的行事。”商业界的诠释正如同通用电气CEO杰克·韦尔奇之言：“短期不食，长期难肥。” 对于一个企业的经理人而言，管理短期追求利润也许不算很难，同样地只管理长期关注创新也可能会减少措施机会的风险，但是平衡这两件事便可能非易了。而整篇文章看下来，感觉管理短期追求扩张虽然有负债水平上升之虞，也可以不算太难；精根细作于新市场，开发新需求和新产品以摆脱市场容量的面积边界向纵深发展可能也属可为之举。但是这两个目标放一起要同时实现就很难。 据文中所示，百威英博这些年的扩展战略和《3G资本帝国》中所崇尚的所谓“如何建立一家可以保持伟大的公司”之经验教训中的“专注于创造伟大的实业，而不是专注‘理财’”似乎又开始偏离了。所谓“从长远来看，能把公司打理好就是创造财富的最佳方式。理财本身不会创造伟大和持久的东西。” 发达国家的市场已趋饱和，新兴市场的市场份额扩张空间也不再广阔。后一时期，看来布里托先生需要更多的动作去证明怀疑者们是不是真的都想错了，他将不但以EXCEL为文化核心，不仅仅以并购为马首取向，而且将会“专注于创造伟大的实业”。 毕竟商业不仅仅是持续地精打细算，也必须持续地应对未来。 4 愿景 小组 |
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