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本文选自《经济学人》11月21日刊文章。历经8年、31轮正式谈判，亚太地区15个国家终于在11月15日签署了区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)，这将成为全球最大的自由贸易区。我国与RCEP成员国贸易约占我国贸易总额的30%，来自RCEP成员的实际直接投资占我实际吸引外资总额比重超过10%，协议的签订将为我国构建开放型经济新体制、形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供强大动力。不过，中国虽是RCEP的主导者，但谁从RCEP中获益最大，还未可知。 
选文精讲 Who gains from RCEP, Asia’s new trade pact?Critics claim it will be dominated by China; but that is only part of the storyIT TOOK EIGHT years of gruelling negotiations to agree on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was signed by 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific on November 15th. The world’s newest and biggest regional trade deal is not the deepest. It eliminates fewer tariffs than normal, and some only after two decades. Its coverage of services is patchy, as is that of agricultural goods. India is not a member. Still, when leaders met virtually to sign on the dotted line, they hailed the pact as a triumph.经过8年艰苦的谈判，亚太地区的15个国家终于在11月15日签署了区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)。世界上最新、最大的区域贸易协定并不是最深层次的贸易协定，它取消的关税比正常情况下的要少，而且有些关税还是在20年后才取消。它的服务范围是不完整的，比如农产品领域。印度不是成员国，尽管如此，当各国领导人在线上召开虚拟会议签署这份协议时，他们还是欢呼这份协议是一项胜利。RCEP began as a tidying-up exercise, joining together in one overarching compact the various trade agreements in place between the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. That limits how much trade will be newly affected. Of the $2.3trn in goods flowing between signatories in 2019, 83% passed between those that already had a trade deal.RCEP一开始只是一个整合工作，结合了东南亚国家联盟与澳大利亚、中国、日本、新西兰和韩国之间的各种贸易协定，形成了一个包罗万象的契约。这限制了受到新（协议）影响的贸易量。在2019年签署国之间2.3万亿美元的货物流通中，有83%是在已经签署了贸易协定的国家之间进行的。Some trade will be newly affected, though. China had no existing deal with Japan, for instance; nor did South Korea. So RCEP’s economic impact will be more than a rounding error. Peter Petri of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank in Washington, and Michael Plummer of Johns Hopkins University estimate that Japan and South Korea will gain the most. By 2030 their real incomes are expected to be 1% higher than they would have otherwise been.不过，一些贸易将受到新（协议的）影响。例如，中国与日本之间没有现存的协议，中韩之间也没有。因此RCEP的经济影响将不仅仅是一星半点。华盛顿智库彼得森国际经济研究所的彼得·佩特里和约翰·霍普金斯大学的迈克尔·普卢默估计，日本和韩国将从中获益最多。到2030年，他们的实际收入预计将比没有签署这份协议的情况下高出1%。
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