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科技发展之快，让我的家里存了8个手机，从2G, 3G，4G 到5G应有尽有。 从前，手机的最大功能是接打电话。而如今，成了看视频，聊天，打游戏的主要工具。 再后来，智能手环，智能手表又出现了，检测心率，检测睡眠。 总之，现代的科技生活让我们越来越方便，对自己了解的也越来越多。 但，有数据显示，智能手机时代即将终结，那么硅谷大佬们的前瞻性放在了哪些领域呢？ 今天，我们一起来读一读《经济学人》的这篇文章： After the smartphone Silicon Valley’s search for the next big tech platform The smartphone era is fading. What next? 硅谷寻找下一个科技平台：智能手机时代在消退，下一个时代是什么？
 阅读本文，你会学到以下词汇的表达： 多功能的；可穿戴的 值很多钱的；小众市场 煮蛋计时器 FIFTEENYEARS ago Steve Jobs announced three new products:a music player, a mobile phone and an internet communicator. As Apple’s then-boss gave his presentation, his audience slowlyrealised that the three products were in fact a single gadget: the iPhone. Cue applause, cue Apple’s renaissance, and cue a new era in technology as the smartphoneovertook the desktop PC asthe centre of personal computing. 15年前史蒂夫·乔布斯向世人宣布了三件新产品：音乐播放器，移动手机和互联网通讯器。 在时任苹果老板的乔布斯做演示时，观众慢慢地意识到这三件产品其实是一个设备：那就是iPhone。 观众被震惊了，苹果复兴出现了，智能手机超越台式电脑，并称为消费中心的科技新时代到来了。 cue n 暗示，提示 智能手机狂赚钱 Today even Mr Jobs might be surprised by how many uses have been foundfor his versatile device. The small screen hascome to handle banking, networking, map-reading, gaming and much more. Apple and other phonemakers have been enriched not only by hardware sales (worth$530bn last year) but by controlling what happens on the platform, from appstores (which raked in $135bn) to mobile ads (worth nearly $300bn). 即使在今天，乔布斯自己都会很吃惊他的多功能设备能有如此多的用途。小小的一块屏幕上，你可以办理银行业务，上网，看地图，玩游戏等等。 苹果和其他手机生产商依靠硬件销售赚得盆满钵满（去年销售额达到5300亿美元），而且还通过平台控制权赚了大笔钱，其中应用商店捞到1350亿美元，移动广告价值3000亿美元。 versatile 多功能的，多才多艺的 智能手机的红利不再 Yet there is mounting evidence that the smartphoneera is fading. Phone sales have been in gentle decline since 2016, as slowertechnological improvement has led to people upgrading less often. 然而，越来越多的证据表明智能手机时代正在消亡。手机销量自2016年以来已经出现了一些下滑，因为科技提升的速度减慢让人们更新换代的次数变少。 mounting 上升的，增长的 In rich countries, already saturated, the decline is especially marked. So tech innovators and investorsare on the hunt for the next big thing, in hopes of winning not just a juicy hardware market but the potential to control the platform on whicheverything takes place. 在富裕国家，手机销售已经达到饱和程度，其下降尤其明显。所以，科技创新者和投资者们在寻找下一个掘金点，希望不但能从利润丰厚的硬件市场分到一杯羹，更希望能够控制平台上发生的一切。 saturated 饱和的 juicy 值很多钱的，吸引人 The current big idea is virtual-reality (VR) headsets, spurred on in part bypandemic lockdowns. More promising, but further off, are glasses forexperiencing augmented reality (AR), in which computergraphics are overlaid on the real world. 如今，这个掘金点就落在了虚拟现实VR头戴设备上。疫情封锁让这个市场更加繁荣。 再更进一步，更有前景的产品就是为了体验增强现实感而制造的眼镜。戴上眼睛，你会看到计算机图形学在真实世界中交织。 spur on 驱使，飞驰 Most of America’s big tech firms—among them Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft—as well as Asian giants like ByteDance (TikTok’s Chinese owner) andSony, are developing or already selling VR or AR headsets. What has so far been a nichemarket is about to become very crowded. 美国很多大的科技公司，如苹果、谷歌、元宇宙以及微软还有亚洲的科技巨头字节跳动（TikTok的中国母公司）和索尼都在开发或者已经在售卖VR或AR头戴设备。 目前这个鲜少问津的市场即将变得车水马龙。 niche 商机，（产品）针对特定小群体的 Any claim to have discovered the next big platform deserves caution.There have been plenty of false starts. Tablets were proclaimed as a rival tothe smartphone, yet Apple still makes six times as much money selling iPhonesas it does from iPads. Smart homes were seen as another possible mega-platform, but so farAlexa and her like serve mostly as jukeboxes and egg-timers. 任何一个声称发现了下一个商机的宣言都需要谨慎对待，因为已经出现了很多虚假宣言。 平板电脑曾被看作是智能手机的强力对手，然后苹果手机的销售额仍然是iPad的六倍。 智能家居曾被认为是另一个可能的超级平台，但是到目前为止Alexa(亚马逊旗下品牌)及类似的品牌销售最多的是点唱机和煮蛋计时器。 jukebox 点唱机 egg-timer 煮蛋计时器 In-car tech is another platform that has proved useful and valuable,but hardly threatens to become the centre of anyone’s digital life. 车载科技是另一个有用且有价值的平台，但远不足以成为人们数字生活的中心。 What does seem to be under way, however, is a gradual movement byconsumers towards a constellation of new wearable devices. These include voice-activated smart headphones, which can make calls,read messages and more, and smart watches, which handle scheduling, navigationand fitness. A growing array of health-tech gadgets measure everything from bloodsugar to sleep patterns. In America unit sales of these “wearables” are alreadyclose to sales of smartphones. 然而，目前来看，消费者的消费习惯正慢慢地向新式可穿戴设备转变。 这些设备包括声控智能耳机，其可以接打电话，读取信息等。此外，还有智能手表，其有日程安排，导航和健身检测的功能。 越来越多的健康科技设备能够测量从血糖到睡眠模式的任何指标。在美国，这些可穿戴设备的单位产品销售额已经接近智能手机。 a constellation of 一系列 These gadgets are more like accessories for the phone thanreplacements. But as computing shifts away from the pocket and towards wristsand ears, a growing share of consumers’ attention and spending is seeping away from the phone,too. As VR and AR glasses become lighter and cheaper, they could form the most powerful part of the wearable cluster. 这些小电子设备更像是手机配件而非替代品。但是，随着计算机信息处理技术从口袋转向手腕和耳朵，消费者的注意力和财力逐渐从手机渗出。 当VR和AR眼睛越来越轻，越来越便宜，它们将会形成可穿戴设备领域最强有力的一部分。 seep away from 从……渗出 People are not about to ditch their phones, any more thanthey threw out their laptops a decade ago. But as they interact more often withearphones or, soon, glasses, more of them will come to use their phone as akind of back office, primarily there to provide processing muscle for othergadgets. As chips get even smaller, phones may not be needed even for that. 人们不会把自己的手机扔掉，至多会扔掉十年前的笔记本电脑。但是，当人们与耳机，或不久与眼镜的交互越来越多，很多人将会把手机看作是一个后勤部门，变成了一个主要为其他设备提供处理的设备。 当芯片越来越小，人们或许不再需要手机。 ditch 扔掉 Don’t expect any of this to happen right away. Internet-enabled phoneswere launched in the late 1990s and failed to catch on outside offices. AR headsets—bulky, pricey and so far used only in industry—are at asimilar stage. 但不要期待这些会马上发生。联网手机出现在20世纪90年代末，但没能跟随上时代的车轮。 体积大，价钱昂贵的AR头戴设备目前只在行业使用阶段，处在一个类似的阶段中。 Yet when technological tipping-points are crossed, things can change fast. Four years after Mr Jobs introduced his iPhone, smartphones outsold all laptop and desktop computers worldwide. Silicon Valley’s latest great hope is still a work in progress. But ifand when the right product appears, the future may arrive very quickly. ■ 然而，当跨越科技倾斜点之后，一切将发生骤变。在乔布斯推出iPhone手机的四年后，智能手机销售量超越了全世界笔记本电脑和台式电脑。 硅谷目前最大的希望尚处在萌芽阶段。但是，合适的产品是否以及何时会出现，未来马上来告诉你！ tipping-point倾斜点 |
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