Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence 作者：Rebecca Mancy, Malavika Rajeev , Ahmed Lugelo, Kirstyn Brunker , Sarah Cleaveland, Elaine A. Ferguson, et al. Science：2022/04/28 How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.
（导读 阿金）在没有获得免疫力的情况下，急性病原体持续的方式以及如何限制其流行增长仍待阐释。本研究从2002至2016年跟踪了坦桑尼亚5万条狗的狂犬病传播情况，使用个体模型获得空间分辨率数据以调查调节传播与规模的机制。狂犬病在不同犬类的个体差异促进了病毒传播和病毒谱系的共同循环，从而使病毒元种群得以持续存在。该结果为预测和调控病原体在群体中的循环提供重要思路。
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