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'We are not special’: how triumphalism led India to Covid-19 disaster '我们没什么特别的’：盲目乐观致使印度陷入一场疫情灾难 Huge surge in cases followed erroneous 'supermodelling’ study suggesting herd immunity had been achieved '超级模型’研究出错，认为印度已实现群体免疫，可接踵而来的却是病例激增。 by Michael Safi 作者：迈克尔·萨非 Thu 29 Apr 2021 12.50 BST 2021年4月29日周四英国夏令时间12:50
They will be remembered as India’s lost months: the stretch between September and February when Covid-19 cases in the country defied global trends, falling sharply throughout the coldest months of the year until they reached four-figure daily totals. 从去年9月到今年2月这段时间，印度新冠病例顶住了全球趋势，在一年中最冷的几个月里数量骤减到每日四位数的病例总量。只是，这段为人熟知的日子已经一去不复返。 It was inexplicable. Was it the Indian climate? A protection conferred by childhood immunisations? Some speculated India may have naturally reached herd immunity. It was a tantalising idea that took hold in India’s highest circles of policymaking, media and science–even a government-commissioned study suggested herd immunity may indeed have been achieved. It would prove one of the most fatal miscalculations of the Covid-19 pandemic so far. 病例骤减令人费解，是印度气候使然？还是儿童免疫接种起了保护作用？一些人推测，印度可能已在自然状态下实现了群体免疫。这种诱人的说法在印度政策界、媒体界及科学界很有底气，甚至一项由政府委托的研究表明，群体免疫有可能真的实现了。然而，这有可能是迄今为止对印度新冠疫情最致命的误判之一。 Now, with daily cases crossing 360,000, and recorded deaths beyond 3,200 per day, many see the lull between Covid-19 waves as a cruel illusion. “The elections, religious festivals and everything else opened up completely,” says Sujatha Rao, a former secretary of the Indian ministry of health and family welfare. “That was a very bad mistake and we have paid a very dear price, a heavy price for that oversight .” 目前，印度每日新冠病例超过36万，每日统计的新冠死亡人数超过3200人。许多人认为，两波疫情间的平静其实是一种残忍的错觉。印度前卫生和家庭福利部部长苏贾塔·拉奥(Sujatha Rao)表示：“选举、宗教节日及其他一切活动完全不受限制，这是一个非常糟糕的错误，这种疏忽让我们付出了非常昂贵和沉重的代价。” An outbreak the size of India’s second wave, apparently fuelled by Covid-19 variants that appear to be more infectious than earlier strains , would have overwhelmed most public health systems – let alone one of the most chronically underfunded in the world, serving a vast, spread-out population. 据悉，印度第二波疫情由新冠变异病毒引起，变异病毒似乎比早期病毒更具有传染性。这一轮疫情的爆发极大地压垮了印度公共卫生系统。该系统不仅是全球长期最缺乏资金的卫生系统之一，还服务着印度庞大的分散型人口，这种情况下就更别提抗疫这件事了。
But public health experts, including some involved in advising the government, say the scale of India’s current outbreak was also partly manmade, the result of a feeling of exceptionalism that emanated from the top of the Indian government and rippled across society, leading to countless administrative and personal decisions that, within a few months, would prove disastrous. 不过，包括政府顾问在内的一些公共卫生专家表示，印度当前的疫情规模在一定程度上也是人为的，它是印度政府高层乃至整个社会盲目乐观的结果。盲目乐观致使无数行政决策和个人决策在数月后引发了疫情灾难。 “There was a misreading of the situation in January that we had attained herd immunity and were unlikely to see a second wave,” says K Srinath Reddy, the president of the Public Health Foundation of India .“India went into full-blown celebratory mode. And we know the virus travels with people, and celebrates with crowds.” 印度公共卫生基金会主席斯里纳特·雷迪（Srinath Reddy）称：“我们在1月份看错了形势，认为我们已实现群体免疫，不可能会出现第二波疫情，印度随即便进入全面庆祝模式。只是，我们明知道病毒会随人传播，却依然成群结队地搞庆祝活动。” Alongside warnings that people should maintain precautions , governments at all levels relaxed restrictions, allowed massive social events to resume and pressed ahead with raucous electioneering, confident the continued circulation of Covid-19 in states such as Kerala or Maharashtra were the dying embers of the virus, not evidence of the sparks that would ignite a second firestorm. 各级政府一边警告人们做好疫情防护，一边却放松各种防控限制，同时允许恢复举行大型社交活动，并继续开展各种吵闹的竞选活动。此外，各级政府还确信，喀拉拉、马哈拉施特拉等邦持续扩散的疫情不能证明是引发第二波疫情风暴的火花，它只是疫情的余火而已。 “There was a lot of mixed messaging coming through which made people very complacent ,” Shahid Jameel, a virologist at Ashoka University, told a forum there on Tuesday. Some politicians and scientists boasted of low infection and death rates that gave Indians the impression “that somehow we are special”, Jameel added. “We are not special.” 周二，印度阿育王大学病毒学家沙希德·贾米尔（Shahid Jameel）在该校举办的一场论坛上表示：“许多混杂的信息都传了出去，这让人们都非常自鸣得意。”一些政客和科学家对低感染率和低死亡率的吹捧让印度人认为“不管怎样，我们就是很特别。” 贾米尔对此补充道：“我们没什么特别的。”
重点短语归纳 1.triumphalism = ( disapproving ) behaviour that celebrates a victory or success in a way that is too proud and intended to upset the people you have defeated 耀武扬威；扬扬得意 2.erroneous 错误的 3.herd immunity 群体免疫 4.defy = to successfully resist sb/sth to a very unusual degree 经受住；顶住；抗住 5.inexplicable 费解的；无法解释的 6.tantalising = very pleasantly inviting 诱人的；有吸引力的；令人向往的 7.lull = a quiet period between times of activity （活动间的）平静时期，间歇 8.full-blown = having all the characteristics of sb/sth; fully developed 具所有特征的；成熟的；全面的 9.chronically = 长期地；慢性地；习惯性地 10.Exceptionalism = an attitude to other countries, cultures, etc based on the idea of being quite distinct from, and often superior to, them in vital ways 例外主义; 对其它国家、文化等的一种态度，认为自己的国家或文化在很多重要方面不同并优越于其它国家或其文化 11.emanate--- If something emanates from somewhere, it comes from there 发源于；从…发出 12.raucous = sounding loud and rough 刺耳的；尖厉的 13.electioneering = the activity of making speeches and visiting people to try to persuade them to vote for a particular politician or political party in an election 竞选活动；拉选票 14.come through--- If a feeling or message comes through, it is clearly shown in what is said or done. (感情或消息) 传出 15.complacent =( usually disapproving) too satisfied with yourself or with a situation, so that you do not feel that any change is necessary; showing or feeling complacency 自满的；自鸣得意的；表现出自满的 ————————————————————— 编辑：Dennis 翻译：Dennis 校对：Dennis 声 明 本文英文文本摘选自《The Guardian》，译文为本人原创，仅供学习交流使用。 |
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