 这是我的第372篇原创文章 作者按： 巴菲特在2006年宣布捐出自己99%以上的财富，以巴菲特当时持有的伯克希尔股票计算，如果巴菲特没有进行慈善捐赠的话，其现在的持仓市值已经高达2449亿美元（截至2023年6月），是当之无愧的世界首富。即便是在捐献了超过半数的财富之后，如今的巴菲特依然坐拥千亿美元身家，常年位居“福布斯富豪榜”前5名。 1 Day134：“停滞公司”与“徒劳先生” 巴神原文：Take, for instance, ten year, fixed-price options (and who wouldn’t?). If Fred Futile, CEO of Stagnant, Inc., receives a bundle of these — let’s say enough to give him an option on 1% of the company — his self-interest is clear: He should skip dividends entirely and instead use all of the company’s earnings to repurchase stock. 英文释义：1.“futile”意为“徒劳的”；“stagnant”意为“停滞不前的”；“a bundle of”意为“一捆”； 2.“self-interest”意为“自私自利”； 3.“skip”意为“跳过”。 投资解读：比如说，10年期、固定价格的期权，有谁会不想要呢？假如停滞公司的CEO徒劳先生，收到了这些期权，比方说他可以据此认购公司1%的股权，那么他的“利己主义”会非常清楚：他会完全忽略分红，取而代之的是拿公司所有的利润去回购股票。 手抄原文：  @我爱红薯 打卡作品 大声朗读：大家请自由发挥，哈哈哈！大家的手抄原文，也可以在评论区上传打卡。今天的内容，巴菲特虚构了一个关于“停滞公司”和“徒劳先生”的故事。这让我想到了西汉司马相如的名篇《子虚赋》，其中虚构了一个关于“子虚先生”和“乌有先生”的故事。还有一篇胡适的《差不多先生传》，大家看过吗？今天比较简单，祝大家周末愉快！ 2 Day135：关于期权的小学数学题 巴神原文：Let’s assume that under Fred’s leadership Stagnant lives up to its name. In each of the ten years after the option grant, it earns $1 billion on $10 billion of net worth, which initially comes to $10 per share on the 100 million shares then outstanding. Fred eschews dividends and regularly uses all earnings to repurchase shares. If the stock constantly sells at ten times earnings per share, it will have appreciated 158% by the end of the option period. That’s because repurchases would reduce the number of shares to 38.7 million by that time, and earnings per share would thereby increase to $25.80. Simply by withholding earnings from owners, Fred gets very rich, making a cool $158 million, despite the business itself improving not at all. Astonishingly, Fred could have made more than $100 million if Stagnant’s earnings had declined by 20% during the ten-year period. 英文释义：1.“lives up to its name”意为“名副其实”； 2.“eschews”意为“避开”； 3.“appreciated”意为“增值”； 4.“astonishingly”意为“令人吃惊地”。 投资解读：让我们想象一下，在“徒劳先生”的领导下，“停滞公司”变得名副其实。在期权授予之后的每一个十年，在100亿美元净值的情况下，它每年能赚到10亿美元净利润，按照它初始发行的1亿流通股来计算，每股净利润10美元。“徒劳先生”一点股息都没有发放，倒是经常拿全部利润去回购自家股票。 假如公司股票的市盈率始终维持在10倍左右，那么在期权到期之日，它的涨幅会达到158%。这是因为，经过这十年的回购，届时公司的股本数会降至3870万股，每股净利润也会因此提升至25.8美元。 仅仅是靠着“不给股东分红”这一点，“徒劳先生”就会变得非常富有。即便是公司业务毫无进展，他也能赚到1.58亿美元，泰裤辣！令人讶异的是，在这十年间，哪怕“停滞公司”的净利润下降20%，“徒劳先生”赚的钱也会超过1亿美元。 手抄原文：  @癫老 打卡作品
1亿股*0.9^9=3874万股； 10亿美元/3874万股=25.8美元/股； （25.8-10）/10=158%； 100亿美元*1%*158%=1.58亿美元； 2.58亿美元*80%-1亿美元=1.06亿美元（超过1亿美元）。 3 Day136：不合理的期权发放 巴神原文：Fred can also get a splendid result for himself by paying no dividends and deploying the earnings he withholds from shareholders into a variety of disappointing projects and acquisitions. Even if these initiatives deliver a paltry 5% return, Fred will still make a bundle. Specifically — with Stagnant’s p/e ratio remaining unchanged at ten — Fred’s option will deliver him $63 million. Meanwhile, his shareholders will wonder what happened to the “alignment of interests” that was supposed to occur when Fred was issued options. 英文释义：1.“splendid”意为“华丽的”；“deploying”意为“部署”； 2.“initiatives”意为“倡议”；“paltry”意为“微不足道的”；“make a bundle”意为“大赚一笔”； 3.“specifically”意为“确切地说”、“具体来说”； 4. “alignment of interests”意为“利益一致”。 投资解读：“徒劳先生”还可以通过很多方式，让自己获得不错的结果，比如说：不发放股息；拿着没有分给股东的利润，去投一些令人失望的项目或并购。即便是这些方案只能带来微不足道的5%收益率，“徒劳先生”也能大赚一笔。 具体来说，如果“停滞公司”的市盈率继续维持10倍不变，“徒劳先生”持有的期权将给他带来6300万美元的回报。与此同时，他的股东们可能会发出质疑：给“徒劳先生”授予期权时说好的“利益一致”，现在怎么成这样了呢？ 手抄原文：  @艳军 打卡作品
4 Day137：分红会减少期权价值 巴神原文：A “normal” dividend policy, of course — one-third of earnings paid out, for example —produces less extreme results but still can provide lush rewards for managers who achieve nothing. CEOs understand this math and know that every dime paid out in dividends reduces the value of all outstanding options. I’ve never, however, seen this manager-owner conflict referenced in proxy materials that request approval of a fixed-priced option plan. Though CEOs invariably preach internally that capital comes at a cost, they somehow forget to tell shareholders that fixed-price options give them capital that is free. 英文释义：1.“lush”意为“豪华的”； 2.“dime”意为“十美分”； 3.“proxy materials”意为“致投资者的委托材料”； 4.“invariably”意为“一贯地”；“preach”意为“宣传”；“somehow”意为“不知为什么”。 投资解读：当然，一项正常的股息政策，比如说三分之一的利润拿来分红，可能不会产生如此极端的结果。不过，对于一事无成的高管来说，他依然可以拿到丰厚的回报。 CEO都会算这道数学题，他们知道，拿去分红的每一分钱，都会减少期权的价值。然而，在要求核准固定价格期权方案的股东委托材料中，我从来都没有见过关于此项高管和股东利益冲突的说明。虽然CEO在内部一贯宣传“资本都有成本”，不知为什么他们却忘了告诉股东，给他们的固定价格期权却没有成本。 手抄原文：  @淑娟 打卡作品
5 Day138：“一事无成百事顺” 巴神原文：It doesn’t have to be this way: It’s child’s play for a board to design options that give effect to the automatic build-up in value that occurs when earnings are retained. But—surprise, surprise—options of that kind are almost never issued. Indeed, the very thought of options with strike prices that are adjusted for retained earnings seems foreign to compensation “experts,” who are nevertheless encyclopedic about every management-friendly plan that exists. (“Whose bread I eat, his song I sing.”) Getting fired can produce a particularly bountiful payday for a CEO. Indeed, he can “earn” more in that single day, while cleaning out his desk, than an American worker earns in a lifetime of cleaning toilets. Forget the old maxim about nothing succeeding like success: Today, in the executive suite, the all too-prevalent rule is that nothing succeeds like failure. 英文释义：1.“child’s play”意为“小儿科”； 2.“strike prices”意为“执行价”；“foreign to”意为“与…无关”；“encyclopedic”意为“知识渊博的”； 3.“bountiful”意为“慷慨的”； 4.“maxim”意为“格言”；“prevalent”意为“流行的”。 投资解读：事情不必非得如此不可。对于董事会而言，要想设计保留盈余可以反映自动增值的期权，绝非难事。但是，很奇怪，公司从来都没有发行过这种期权。事实上，根据保留盈余来调整期权行权价的想法，似乎薪酬“专家”是闻所未闻。然而，有利于高管利益的方案，他们倒是无所不知。毕竟，吃人家的嘴软，拿人家的手短。 对于一名CEO来说，被解雇都能带来一笔特殊的丰厚回报。事实上，当他清理办公室准备走人的时候，那一天会“赚”得更多，甚至比一名美国工人刷一辈子厕所的收入所得还多。常言道：“一事成则百事顺”，忘掉这句古老的格言吧！如今对于企业界高管来说，最流行的规则是：“一事无成百事顺”。 手抄原文：  @小雪 打卡作品
6 Day139：有奖有罚，奖罚分明 巴神原文：At Berkshire, however, we use an incentive compensation system that rewards key managers for meeting targets in their own bailiwicks. If See’s does well, that does not produce incentive compensation at the News—nor vice versa. Neither do we look at the price of Berkshire stock when we write bonus checks. We believe good unit performance should be rewarded whether Berkshire stock rises, falls, or stays even. Similarly, we think average performance should earn no special rewards even if our stock should soar. “Performance”, furthermore, is defined in different ways depending upon the underlying economics of the business: in some our managers enjoy tailwinds not of their own making, in others they fight unavoidable headwinds. 英文释义：1.“bailiwicks”意为“管辖范围”； 2.“vice versa”意为“反之亦然”； 3.“underlying”意为“潜在的”； 4.“tailwinds”意为“顺风”；“headwinds”意为“逆风”。 投资解读：然而在伯克希尔，如果关键高管在他们的管辖范围内达成目标，我们会用一套薪酬激励体系来奖励他们。如果喜诗糖果表现不错，我们不会对《布法罗新闻报》的员工实施奖励，反之亦然。当我们签发奖金支票时，我们也不会看伯克希尔的股价。 我们坚信，不管伯克希尔的股价是涨是跌还是横盘，绩效不错的业务单元都应得到奖励。同样地，即便是我们的股价涨势如虹，绩效平平的业务单元也不应得到特殊的奖励。此外，我们对“绩效”的定义也不尽相同，它取决于潜在的商业经济环境：有的处于行业顺境，我们的高管未必是能力强，而是运气好；有的处于行业困境，我们的高管不可避免地要与之作艰难的抗争。 手抄原文：  我的打卡作品 大声朗读：大家请自由发挥，哈哈哈！大家的手抄原文，也可以在评论区上传打卡。今天的内容，巴菲特再次明确了薪酬激励体系的原则：有奖有罚，奖罚分明；考虑实际，因地制宜。
7 Day140：不论资历论贡献 巴神原文：The rewards that go with this system can be large. At our various business units, top managers sometimes receive incentive bonuses of five times their base salary, or more, and it would appear possible that one manager’s bonus could top $2 million in 1986. (I hope so.) We do not put a cap on bonuses, and the potential for rewards is not hierarchical. The manager of a relatively small unit can earn far more than the manager of a larger unit if results indicate he should. We believe, further, that such factors as seniority and age should not affect incentive compensation (though they sometimes influence basic compensation). A 20-year-old who can hit .300 is as valuable to us as a 40-year-old performing as well. Obviously, all Berkshire managers can use their bonus money (or other funds, including borrowed money) to buy our stock in the market. Many have done just that—and some now have large holdings. By accepting both the risks and the carrying costs that go with outright purchases, these managers truly walk in the shoes of owners. 英文释义：1.“put a cap on”意为“规定最高限额”；“hierarchical”意为“等级制度的”； 2.“seniority”意为“资历”； 3.“outright”意为“彻底的”。 投资解读：在这样的薪酬激励体系下，高管获得的奖金非常丰厚。在我们的许多业务单元，顶级的高管有时候可以拿到5倍于基础年薪的奖金，甚至更多。1986年，我们有可能会看到，有一位高管的奖金高达200万美元。我希望如此。我们的奖金上不封顶，潜在的奖励也不会论资排辈。 相对较小的业务单元的高管，跟更大的业务单元的高管比起来，也有可能赚得更多，只要经营结果能证明这是他应得的就行。此外，资历和年龄等因素，虽然它们有时候会影响基本工资，但我们认为这与薪酬激励无关。一名能打出0.3的击球手，他是20岁也好，40岁也罢，对我们具有同样的价值。 很显然，伯克希尔的所有高管，都可以用他们的奖金乃至其他资金（包括借的钱），在市场上买入伯克希尔股票。很多高管就是这样做的，其中有一些人现在的持仓还挺大的。通过直接购买伯克希尔股票，这些高管承担了相应的风险和持有成本，他们真正和股东在同一条船上。 手抄原文：  @弹着吉他的少年 打卡作品
8 Day141：权、责、利对等 巴神原文：At Berkshire, we try to be as logical about compensation as about capital allocation. For example, we compensate Ralph Schey based upon the results of Scott Fetzer rather than those of Berkshire. What could make more sense, since he’s responsible for one operation but not the other? A cash bonus or a stock option tied to the fortunes of Berkshire would provide totally capricious rewards to Ralph. He could, for example, be hitting home runs at Scott Fetzer while Charlie and I rang up mistakes at Berkshire, thereby negating his efforts many times over. Conversely, why should option profits or bonuses be heaped upon Ralph if good things are occurring in other parts of Berkshire but Scott Fetzer is lagging? 英文释义：1.“capricious”意为“变幻莫测的”； 2.“hitting home”意为“击中要害”；“negating”意为“否定”； 3.“lagging”意为“缓慢的”、“落后的”。 投资解读：在伯克希尔，我们试图让薪酬管理和资本配置一样合乎逻辑。比如说，我们根据斯科特-费泽而非伯克希尔的表现来给予拉尔夫·沙伊相应的奖励。既然他负责的是斯科特-费泽而非伯克希尔，还有什么比这样更合理呢？ 和伯克希尔财富挂钩的现金或期权奖励，会让拉尔夫完全摸不着头脑。比如说，当我和芒格在伯克希尔做出了错误的决策，拉尔夫在斯科特-费泽也许是精准施策的，但很多时候他的努力会被抵消。反之，如果伯克希尔的其他部门创造了佳绩，但斯科特-费泽拖了后腿，拉尔夫凭什么要拿到期权或现金奖励呢？ 手抄原文：  @淡事 打卡作品 大声朗读：大家请自由发挥，哈哈哈！大家的手抄原文，也可以在评论区上传打卡。今天的内容，巴菲特再次阐述他对高管“权责利对等”的原则和态度。
9 Day142：“资本不免费” 巴神原文：In setting compensation, we like to hold out the promise of large carrots, but make sure their delivery is tied directly to results in the area that a manager controls. When capital invested in an operation is significant, we also both charge managers a high rate for incremental capital they employ and credit them at an equally high rate for capital they release. The product of this money’s-not-free approach is definitely visible at Scott Fetzer. If Ralph can employ incremental funds at good returns, it pays him to do so: His bonus increases when earnings on additional capital exceed a meaningful hurdle charge. But our bonus calculation is symmetrical: If incremental investment yields sub-standard returns, the shortfall is costly to Ralph as well as to Berkshire. The consequence of this two-way arrangement is that it pays Ralph—and pays him well—to send to Omaha any cash he can’t advantageously use in his business. 英文释义：1.“incremental”意为“增加的”； 2.“hurdle”意为“跨栏”、“门槛”； 3.“symmetrical”意为“对称的”； 4.“shortfall”意为“亏空”； 5.“advantageously”意为“有利地”。 投资解读：在设置薪酬政策时，我们倾向于开出大额奖励的承诺，但要确保这些奖励要直接跟一名高管在权责范围内的经营结果相挂钩。当一项业务必须要投入大额资本时，我们会就高管用到的增量资本收取高利率的资金成本。当他们释放资本时，我们也会相应地向其支付高利率的资金成本。 这种“资本不免费”的产物，在斯科特-费泽是显然易见的。如果拉尔夫能够依靠增量资本获取高额回报，他一定会这样做的：当增量资本的收益超过一定门槛后，他的奖金也会水涨船高。不过，我们的奖金计算是对称的：如果增量资本回报率没有达到基准，拉尔夫和伯克希尔都会因此受损。这种双向安排的结果是，如果拉尔夫在业务上存在无法有效利用的现金，那么对他薪酬最有利的做法就是将多余资金返至奥马哈。 手抄原文：  @土龙木 打卡作品
反观国内的有些民营集团公司，总部与子公司之间、子公司相互之间都存在着无序的资金拆借，还美其名曰“败则拼死相救”，导致“劣币驱逐良币”，表现好的板块最后也被表现差的板块拖入泥潭。相比于投资者，企业家其实更应多读读巴菲特的。
10 Day143：“正面我赢，反面你输” 巴神原文：It has become fashionable at public companies to describe almost every compensation plan as aligning the interests of management with those of shareholders. In our book, alignment means being a partner in both directions, not just on the upside. Many “alignment” plans flunk this basic test, being artful forms of “heads I win, tails you lose.” A common form of misalignment occurs in the typical stock option arrangement, which does not periodically increase the option price to compensate for the fact that retained earnings are building up the wealth of the company. Indeed, the combination of a ten-year option, a low dividend payout, and compound interest can provide lush gains to a manager who has done no more than tread water in his job. A cynic might even note that when payments to owners are held down, the profit to the option-holding manager increases. I have yet to see this vital point spelled out in a proxy statement asking shareholders to approve an option plan. 英文释义：1.“aligning”意为“相一致”； 2.“upside”意为“好的一面”； 3.“flunk”意为“不及格”； 4.“tread water”意为“原地踏步”； 5.“cynic”意为“愤世嫉俗的”。 投资解读：在上市公司，现在非常流行将几乎所有的薪酬计划都描述为“管理层和股东的利益相一致”。我们认为，“一致”意味着“同甘共苦”，而不仅仅是“苟富贵，勿相忘”。很多所谓的“一致”方案都无法通过这条最基本的测试，它们只不过是艺术性地表达了“正面我赢，反面你输”的意思。 典型的股票期权设计，就是一种常见的“不一致”情况。这种设计罔顾留存收益会增加公司价值的事实，没有定期调高行权价。事实上，一份10年期的期权，加上很低的股息支付，再叠加复利效应，可以为一名在工作上原地踏步的高管提供丰富的回报。犬儒主义者甚至会发现，发放给股东的股息越少，持有期权的高管的获利越多。在要求股东核准期权方案的委托代理文件中，我至今都没有看到过对此重要事项的说明。 手抄原文：  @Linda 打卡作品
11 Day144：伯克希尔没有薪酬顾问 巴神原文：I can’t resist mentioning that our compensation arrangement with Ralph Schey was worked out in about five minutes, immediately upon our purchase of Scott Fetzer and without the “help” of lawyers or compensation consultants. This arrangement embodies a few very simple ideas—not the kind of terms favored by consultants who cannot easily send a large bill unless they have established that you have a large problem (and one, of course, that requires an annual review). Our agreement with Ralph has never been changed. It made sense to him and to me in 1986, and it makes sense now. Our compensation arrangements with the managers of all our other units are similarly simple, though the terms of each agreement vary to fit the economic characteristics of the business at issue, the existence in some cases of partial ownership of the unit by managers, etc. In all instances, we pursue rationality. Arrangements that pay off in capricious ways, unrelated to a manager’s personal accomplishments, may well be welcomed by certain managers. Who, after all, refuses a free lottery ticket? But such arrangements are wasteful to the company and cause the manager to lose focus on what should be his real areas of concern. Additionally, irrational behavior at the parent may well encourage imitative behavior at subsidiaries. 英文释义：1.“embodies”意为“包括”； 2.“vary”意为“变化”；“at issue”意为“争论中的”、“讨论中的”； 3.“capricious”意为“反复无常的”； 4.“imitative”意为“效仿的”。 投资解读：我忍不住要提到，我们对拉尔夫·沙伊的薪酬安排大约只花了五分钟。当时我们刚刚买下斯科特-费泽，也没有任何律师或者薪酬顾问的“帮助”。这种安排仅仅包含极少的简单的想法，不像那些薪酬顾问，如果他们不声称问题复杂，就很难收取高昂的咨询费。当然，他们还要做年度评估。 我们对拉尔夫的薪酬安排从未变更。无论是对他还是对我而言，这样的安排在1986年是合情合理的，现在也是合情合理的。我们对高管的薪酬安排，在我们所有其他的业务单元也差不多，都很简单。只不过每项安排会根据不同业务的经济特征来进行调整，比如说有的业务单元，高管持有一部分股权，等等。 无论如何，我们力求合理。不论高管个人表现都能获得优厚薪酬的薪酬安排，可能会受到相当多的高管的欢迎。毕竟，谁会拒绝免费的乐透彩票呢？不过，这样的安排对公司来说是一种浪费，而且会让高管无心工作，不务正业。此外，上梁不正下梁歪，总部不理性的薪酬安排，一定会引来子公司竞相效仿。 手抄原文： @小娜 打卡作品 大声朗读：大家请自由发挥，哈哈哈！大家的手抄原文，也可以在评论区上传打卡。今天的内容，巴菲特谈到：给拉尔夫定薪只花了5分钟，此后数十年未改。这种强烈的对比，透露着一份极简的古法之美。
12 荐书
——杨朔《画山绣水》 △桂林山水 书斋外面是阳台，阳台外面是海，是山，海是碧湛湛的一弯，山是青郁郁的连环。山外有山，最远的翠微淡成一袅青烟，忽焉似有，再顾若无，那便是，大陆的莽莽苍苍了。 ——余光中《沙田山居》 △香港沙田 远山凹处，红日正沉，只照得天边山顶一片通红。岸边几株枯树，恰为夕阳做了画框。框外娇红的西山，这时却全是黛青色，鲜嫩润泽，一派雨后初晴的模样，似与这黄昏全不相干。但也有浅淡的光，照在框外的冰上，使人想起月色的清冷。 ——宗璞《废墟的召唤》 △圆明园残迹 秦淮河的水是碧阴阴的；看起来厚而不腻，或者是六朝金粉所凝么？我们初上船的时候，天色还未断黑，那漾漾的柔波是这样的恬静，委婉，使我们一面有水阔天空之想，一面又憧憬着纸醉金迷之境了。 ——朱自清《桨声灯影里的秦淮河》 △秦淮河夜景 在冷泉亭上小坐，只觉得遍体生凉，心旷神怡。亭旁溪水琤琮，说是溪水，其实表达不出那奔流的气势，平稳处也是碧澄澄的，流得急了，水花飞溅，如飞珠滚玉一般，在这一片绿色的影中显得分外好看。 ——宗璞《西湖漫笔》 △醉美西湖 从燕园离去的人，难免沾染些泉石烟霞的癖好。清晨在翠竹下读书，黄昏在杨柳岸边散步，习惯了，自然觉得燕园的朝朝暮暮，和那一木一石融在一起，难以分开。在诸般景色中，最容易萦绕于人们思念的，大概是那湖光塔影的画面了。 ——宗璞《湖光塔影》 △一塔湖图
冠亚说 以后在我的公众号文章末尾，会不定期出现一些“荐书”，这里给大家做个简单的说明。 起因是我做“冠亚讲书”，每次直播时会顺便挂上图书链接，方便大家下单。同样一本书，我的视频号橱窗会比大型电商平台更优惠一些。比如说《超越巴菲特的伯克希尔》《巴菲特的伯克希尔崛起》都是五折优惠。 |
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