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退休年龄与寿命长短的关系(中文译文)附简介

 现实家园之外 2010-10-29

 

Working beyong retirement?

退而不休,继续工作?

内容简介(译者)

我从新加坡的一个英文论坛网(Reach)上看到这篇文章(原文为英文),现转贴于下,我将原文的一、二、四的内容译成中文。

论坛的文章主要是回应新加坡李光耀资政在今年中关于员工退休的谈话,李提议新加坡政府取消法定退休年龄的限定,让员工可以延迟退休。李的言论在Reach论坛引起热烈讨论。有些文章颇有见地。其中一篇谈到一个人最富有创造力的年龄,以及退休年龄与个人寿命的关系。文章引述了诺贝尔奖得主江崎玲於奈博士的一篇研究论文,谈到许多诺贝尔奖得主创造力最旺盛的阶段约在32岁左右,他还指出,当一个人年纪越大,他的创造力也跟着年岁的增长而递减。文章还提到退休年龄与寿命长短的相关数据和结论。根据美国波音公司、洛克西德马丁公司(一家美国航空航天和战斗机制造商)和福特汽车公司的员工退休后的寿命与退休年龄的关系进行比对研究。根据对比精算,在这三家公司工作到65 岁才退休的员工,一般只能领取17或18个月的退休金。换句话说,65岁退休的员工一般只能活到67岁。文中得出的结论中最令人触目惊心的是:员工55岁 之后每工作一年,平均寿命就减少两年。

1. Most Creative Years in the Life

The Nobel Laureate, Dr. Leo Esaki, delivered the distinguished lecture entitled
"Innovation and Evolution: Reflections on a Life in Research" in the
University of Texas at Dallas in the afternoon of Feb. 23, 2002 during the 2002 US National Engineering Week. In this lecture, Dr. Esaki indicated that most of the great discoveries and innovations by the Nobel Laureates occurred at the average age of 32 even though the Nobel prizes were awarded 10 or 20 years afterwards. Furthermore, Dr. Esaki indicated that the peak creativity of most scientists occurred around the age range of 20 to 30 years. As one gets older, the experience increases but the creativity decreases steadily with the age. It is, therefore, very important to stimulate, encourage and cultivate many young people to get interested in science and engineering at their young age and to provide the optimal R&D environment for these very powerful young scientists and engineers to unleash their very strong creativities during their most precious and creative years around the age of 32.

1. 人一生中最富创造力的岁月

诺贝尔奖得主江崎玲於奈(Leo Esaki)博士2002年2月23日下午在美国德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校举办的美国国家工程周的学术讲座中发表了他的著名专题研究报告:创新和演进——生命研究的反思。在那次演讲中,江崎玲於奈博士指出绝大部分诺贝尔奖得主的伟大发明与发现一般都在他们32岁左右,虽然他们多半要在10到20年后才获颁诺贝尔奖。他还指出多数科学家最富创造力的年龄段介于20几至30余岁。虽然人的阅历随着人的年岁老去而愈加丰富,但是他的创造能力却随着年龄的递增而逐渐减弱。因此,应该激励和培养年轻人趁他们青春正富时投入到工程与科学的研发中去,所以,应该为他们提供最好的研究和开发的环境,以期他们这些年轻力壮的科学家和工程师们能在他们32岁左右这个最珍贵和最富创造力的年龄段释放出他们的创造力。

2. Longevity Vs. Retirement Age

The pension funds in many large corporations (e.g., Boeing, Lockheed Martin, AT&T, Lucent Technologies, etc.) have been “Over Funded” because many “late retirees” who keep-on working into their old age and retire late after the age of 65 tend to die within two years after their retirements. In other words, many of these late retirees do not live long enough to collect all their fair shares of pension money such that they leave a lot of extra-unused money in the pension funds resulting in the over-funded pension funds.

2.寿命长短与退休年龄的对比关系

许多大公司(如:波音公司、洛克西德马丁、美国电话电报公司、朗讯科技公司等)的退休金基金都出现剩余,这是因为许多达到退休年龄的员工继续工作到65岁才退休,却在退休两年后就死亡。换言之,由于许多退休员工活得不长,未及领取他们所应享有的退休金就离开人世,以致给这些公司的退休金基金留下了大笔钱,而造成退休金基金出现剩余。

Table 1 – Actuarial Study of life span vs. age at retirement.

1——退休年龄与寿命长短对照精算

Age at Retirement    Average Age At Death
退休年龄         平均寿命

49.9                                86
51.2                                85.3
52.5                                84.6
53.8                                83.9
55.1                                83.2
56.4                                82.5
57.2                                81.4
58.3                                80
59.2                                78.5
60.1                                76.8
61                                   74.5
62.1                                71.8
63.1                                69.3
64.1                                67.9
65.2                                66.8


An important conclusion from this study is that for every year one works beyond age 55, one loses 2 years of life span on average. The Boeing experience is that employees retiring at age of 65 receive pension checks for only 18 months, on average, prior to death. Similarly, the Lockheed experience is that employees retiring at age of 65 receive pension checks for only 17 months, on average, prior to death. Dr. David T. Chai indicated that the Bell Labs experience is similar to those of Boeing and Lockheed based on the casual observation from the Newsletters of Bell Lab retirees. A retiree from Ford Motor told Dr. Paul Tien-Lin Ho that the experience from Ford Motor is also similar to those in Boeing and Lockheed. The statistics shown in the Pre-Retirement Seminar in Telcordia (Bellcore) indicates that the average age that Telcordia (Bellcore) employees start retirement is 57. Therefore, people who retire at the age of 65 or older are minority as compared to the number of early retirees. The hard-working late retirees probably put too much stress on their aging body-and mind such that they are so stressed out to develop various serious health problems that forced them to quit and retire. With such long-term stress-induced serious health problems, they die within two years after they quit and retire. On the other hand, people who take early retirements at the age of 55 tend to live long and well into their 80s and beyond. These earlier retirees probably are either wealthier or more able to plan and manage their various aspects of their life, health and career well such that they can afford to retire early and comfortably. These early retirees are not really idling after their early retirements to get old. They still continue doing some work. But they do the work on the part-time basis at a more leisure pace so that they do not get too stressed out. Furthermore, they have the luxury to pick and chose the types of part-time work of real interest to them so that they can enjoy and love doing that “fun” work at a more leisure pace. The late retirees are small in number, tend to die quickly after retirement and disappear from the population of old people beyond the age of 70. Late retirees, therefore, have very little weight on the statistical average life expectancy of the population of “old people” dominated by the early retirees. Several years ago, a Japanese friend of mine told me that most Japanese people retire at the age of 60 or earlier. This may be one of the factors contributing to the long average life span of Japanese people.

从这项研究得出的一个重要结论是:一个员工55岁之后每工作一年,平均寿命就减少两年。波音公司员工的经历表明,每一个65岁才退休的员工,平均只领取了公司所发给的18个月退休金支票。洛克西德马丁的员工的经历与波音员工经历类似,那些在65岁才退休的员工平均领取了17个月的退休金支票就离开人世。David T. Chai 博士指出根据贝尔实验室退休员工的新闻通讯所发布的非正式观察,实验室退休员工的寿命情况与波音公司和洛克西德马丁类似。福特汽车公司的一个退休员工告诉Paul Tien-Lin Ho博士,福特退休员工的情况也与波音公司和洛克西德马丁类似。美国电信大厂(注1)(贝尔核心)退休前研讨会发布的统计数字显示该厂实验室员工平均在57岁退休。因此,与提前退休的人数相比,工作至65岁或更老才退休的人属于少数。那些延迟退休,勤奋工作的人或许因为给自己已经不胜负荷的衰老身心施加太大的压力,以致他们的健康出现严重的问题而不得不离职和退休。长期承受压力诱发了严重的健康(疾病)问题,导致他们在离休不到两年就死亡。与之相反的,那些在55岁就提前退休的员工大多活得更长久——很多能活到80多岁甚至更老。这些提前退休者或许因为较富有或更有能力规划和处理他们的事业和健康等各方面的生活问题,从而能提前退休并舒适地过活。这些提前退休者在退休后并非懒散坐待终老,而是继续做点事;但是他们从事的都是部分时间的工作,由于工作节奏舒缓,所以无须承受太大的压力。此外,他们也能真正选择从事自己兴趣的部分时间工作,因而能更悠闲地热爱他所做的“有趣”的工作。其实,延迟退休的人只是少数,他们退休后不久就很快死亡,从年过70岁的老年人群中消失,因此,他们在占绝大多数提前退休者所呈现的平均寿命统计数字中只占了很小的比重。许多年前,我的一个日本友人告诉我多数日本员工在60岁之前或更早退休,这也许是为什么日本人平均寿命较长的缘故。

注1:美国电信软件大厂Telcordia Technologies(音译泰尔科迪亚),前身为“贝尔通讯实验室”(Bell Communication Research),简称“贝尔核心”(Bellcore)。Bellcore于1984年创立,其目的为支持当时由美国电话电报公司 (AT&T),分出的7家子贝尔(Baby Bells)公司之运作,并负责其创新技术之研发。Telcordia Technologies为许多电信、网络技术之发明者。(注为译者所加)

3. Changing Trend of US Pension Plans

The traditional pension plans of many major US companies used to place a lot of value on the experience of long-term older employees by increasing the pension money rapidly and nonlinearly for long-term employees as their age + service year increases beyond the threshold of the rule of 75. Most long-term employees cross this critical threshold at about the age of 55. On the other hand, the early retirees incur very heavy penalty in pension and in other associated retiree benefits (e.g., employer paid medical insurance, employer paid life insurance, death benefits for family, etc.) when they retire before they meet the rule of 75. However, in recent few years, many large US corporations are switching from their traditional retirement pension plans to the new portable Cash Balance Plans. The new portable cash balance plans are much more favorable to the younger employees but are very unfavorable to the long-term older employees. Some older long-term employees found that when their employers switched from the traditional pension plans to the cash balance plan, their pensions were reduced by 30% to 50%. One of the implications of this trend towards the new cash balance plan is that the US corporations are now placing more value on the higher creativity and adaptability of younger employees and less value on the experience of the older employees. This is consistent with the accelerating pace of innovations and technology advances. The creative and dynamic younger employees are better positioned, than the older employees do, to keep up with the faster pace of technology advances.

3. 美国退休金计划的改变趋向(略译) 

4. Conclusion and Recommendations
The most precious, creative and innovative period in your life is the 10-year period around the age of 32. Plan your career path to use this precious 10-year period wisely and effectively to produce your greatest achievements in your life. The pace of innovations and technology advances is getting faster and faster and is forcing everybody to compete fiercely at the Internet speed on the information superhighways. The highly productive and highly efficient workplace in USA is a pressurecooker and a high-speed battleground for highly creative and dynamic young people to compete and to flourish. However, when you get older, you should plan your career path and financial matter so that you can retire comfortably at the age of 55 or earlier to enjoy your long, happy and leisure retirement life into your golden age of 80s and beyond. In retirement, you can still enjoy some fun work of great interest to you and of great values to the society and the community, but at a part-time leisure pace on your own term. On the other hand, if you are not able to get out of the pressure-cooker or the high-speed battleground at the age of 55 and “have” to keep on working very hard until the age of 65 or older before your retirement, then you probably will die within 18 months of retirement. By working very hard in the pressure cooker for 10 more years beyond the age of 55, you give up at least 20 years of your life span on average.

4.结论与建议

32岁的前后5年(28-38岁)是一个人生命中最珍贵,最富有创造力和最能创新的年龄段。你应该明智地有效地利用这最珍贵的10年,规划你的事业前途,并做出最大的成绩。科技的更新和创新的步伐越来越急速,逼迫着每个人以互联网的速度在资讯的高速公路上拼死竞争。对于那些充满活力且富有创造力的年轻人,美国所强调的高产和高效的工作场所不啻是一个高压锅和一个高速的阵地,正可让他们竞技和展现才华。然而,当你年纪逐渐老大,你就应更好地规划你的事业前途和财务,如此,你才可以在55岁或更早舒服地退休,享受长久的、快乐的、悠闲的退休生活直到黄金般的80余岁或更老。退休后,你仍可以按自己的意思悠闲地从事部分时间的工作,继续享受丁点工作的乐趣,并对社会人群做出贡献。但是,倘若你到了55岁仍不能从高压锅一样的工作场所抽身,或无法脱离节奏快速竞争激烈的环境而必须继续苦干至65岁或更老才退休,那么,你多半会在退休后的18个月内离开人世。在55岁过后还得继续在压力巨大的工作环境中苦干10多年意味着你至少放弃了20年的寿命。

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