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★分季度数据分析模型（以贵州茅台最新季度数据为例）
[淘股吧]
【 原创:茅台03 2005-08-24 09:27 茅台03 浏览/回复：5046/20】
昨天发的贴由于粘贴调整次数太多，有较大的运算错误，这里重新贴过，请大家批评补充，以便我及时完善该模型，谢谢！
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| | 贵州茅台 | 05年中报 | 05年1季报 | 04年年报 | 04年3季报 | 04年中报 | 04年1季报 | 03年年报 | 03年3季报 | 03年中报 | 03年1季报
| | 当季收盘价 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05
| | 赢利能力评分-注1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 94.16 | 100.00 | 99.06 | 94.84 | 88.98 | 81.17 | 80.66 | 80.83
| | 成长能力评分-注2 | 87.92 | 86.91 | 83.93 | 91.06 | 88.10 | 49.03 | 94.27 | 53.10 | 32.18 | 20.67
| | 估值情况评分-注3 | 55.14 | 62.41 | 62.13 | 63.89 | 77.80 | 75.94 | 82.98 | 86.44 | 73.57 | 70.00
| | 信用情况评分-注4 | 91.22 | 90.27 | 87.66 | 90.52 | 90.86 | 91.19 | 91.10 | 90.57 | 90.16 | 89.70
| | 综合情况评价-注5 | 84.28 | 85.70 | 82.43 | 87.34 | 89.64 | 76.01 | 89.28 | 75.01 | 65.29 | 60.96
| | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79
| | 每股净资产（元） | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16
| | 当季收入占比 | 32.15% | 100.00% | 31.00% | 36.52% | 35.08% | 100.00% | 35.33% | 35.57% | 26.70% | 100.00%
| | 当季利润占比 | 23.10% | 100.00% | 37.13% | 32.30% | 25.07% | 100.00% | 39.58% | 28.77% | 13.82% | 100.00%
| | 预估全年净利润(亿) | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98
| | 预估全年每股收益（元） | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45
| | 预估全年主营业务收入(亿) | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72
| | 市净率(倍) | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33
| | 市销率(折算为全年数据) | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83
| | 市盈率(折算为全年数据) | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00
| | 市盈率(倍)(含债调整去息税)折为全年 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00
| | ＰＥＧ（以当期ＲＯＥ为增长标准） | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均净利增长为标准） | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 0.35 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增长为标准） | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 0.40 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入
| | 本期主营业务利润率 | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03%
| | 本期综合业务利润率 | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22%
| | 本期净利润率 | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69%
| | 本期净利润率同比提高率 | 7.19% | 5.25% | 11.81% | 9.03% | 5.19% | 3.27% | 18.99% | 0.83% | 1.39% | 3.47%
| | 预估全年投入资本报酬率 | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85%
| | 预估全年股东权益报酬率 | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96%
| | 当季权益报酬率 | 2.44% | 8.85% | 7.88% | 4.40% | 2.36% | 7.60% | 7.26% | 3.29% | 1.14% | 7.63%
| | 当季权益报酬率同比变化率 | 3.30% | 16.44% | 8.60% | 33.59% | 108.03% | -0.34% | 203.95% | 28.32% | -2.77% | -6.30%
| | 股本同比变动率 | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 可持续增长率 | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10%
| | 总收入同比增长率 | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09%
| | 净利润同比增长率 | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63%
| | 税前利润同比增长率 | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02%
| | 总市值环比增长率 | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32%
| | 债务杠杆 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27
| | 生息负债率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 资产负债率 | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28%
| | 每股生息负债(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息债务占负债比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 实际所得税率 | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97%
| | 净利润现金含量 | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14%
| | 主营业务收入现金含量 | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16%
| | 每股营运资金(元) | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58
| | 短期借款占营运资金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股资本性支出(元) | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39
| | 每股投入资本净额(元) | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26
| | 每股自由现金流(元) | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36)
| | 每股经营活动产生的现金流（元） | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03
| | 营业费用与收入之比 | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64%
| | 管理费用与收入之比 | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31%
| | 财务费用与收入之比 | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30%
| | 投资支出占收入之比 | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55%
| | 存货周转率 - 单期值 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33
| | 总资产周转率-单期值 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48
| | 净资产周转率-单期值 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61
| | 应收帐款周转率--单期值 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69
| | 流动资产周转率--单期值 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64
| | 固定资产周转率--单期值 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10
| | 存货储存期(天) | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85
| | 应付帐款付款期(天) | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37
| | 应收帐款回收期(天) | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81
| | 预付帐款占用期(天) | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54
| | 预收帐款信用期（天） | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85
| | 现金占总资产比例 | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20%
| | 存货占总资产比例 | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82%
| | 总资产环比增加比例 | 2.39% | 3.11% | 13.24% | 11.68% | 3.81% | -2.04% | 10.97% | 13.35% | 1.03% | -0.76%
| | 应付款项占总资产比例 | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38%
| | 应收款项占总资产比例 | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53%
| | 预收款项占总资产比例 | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19%
| | 预付款项占总资产比例 | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81%
| | 固定资产占总资产比例 | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64%
| | 无形资产占总资产比例 | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 现金与全年预计收入之比 | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99%
| | 流动比例 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60
| | 速动比率 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30
| | 成本与收入之比 | 17.44% | 17.19% | 17.84% | 17.77% | 17.50% | 17.73% | 19.88% | 19.33% | 19.69% | 18.55%
| | 其他税费(亿) | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80
| | 资本性支出(亿) | 2.43 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.07
| | 单位收入需投入现金 | 0.40 | 0.49 | (0.07) | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.69 | (0.02) | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.61
| | 单位收入产生的现金 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44
| | 单位收入可用于增长的现金 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29
| | 投资评级及建议-电脑得出仅供参考 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优异-强买 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 中性 | 中性
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【 · 原创:似是而非 2005-08-24 20:33 】
好强的表哈：）
工具箱
【 · 原创:carman 2005-08-25 21:37 】
茅台兄处理的数据已经很全了，不需要补充，大家只需要提炼出数字后的内容。
对茅台兄来说： 天道酬勤，非虚言也。
我不太懂财务，有些看不懂，我看其中比较重要的指标有：
1 总收入同比增长率
2 净利润同比增长率
3 主营业务利润率
4 股东权益报酬率
对于茅台来说有几点确实与很多公司不同：
存货占总资产比例24.8%
固定资产占总资产比例10.5%
无形资产占总资产比例0.6%
现金占总资产比例45.5%
说明茅台的巨大品牌价值记帐几乎为零，最低回报的现金占45.5%，是挺有意思。
存货的价值记帐和评估市场价值也有很大差距。
单位收入可用于增长的现金 0.3
生息债务占负债比率为0
净利润现金含量91% 也很能说明问题。
其实强劲的不可思议的财务报表的背后，都是巨大的无形资产品牌形象的作用，所以指标不可说不多，说明的东西只能是一点。那就是是什么造就了这家卓越的公司。太多的指标只是锦上添花而已了。
工具箱
【 · 原创:孙大炮 2005-08-25 22:04 】
茅台的巨大品牌价值记帐当然为零，因为茅台的商标属于控股母公司，上市公司只是获得了使用许可
工具箱
【 · 原创:shiruogui 2005-08-25 23:35 】
孙大炮兄
怎么不发表你的观点啊。
我就是看了你的贴后介入的，赚了一倍。
工具箱
【 · 原创:wjlll... 2005-08-26 07:06 】
孙先生你好 你的认识与事实相反或者说有很大的出入,请参阅600519的招股说明书第23页.
工具箱
【 · 原创:茅台03 2005-08-26 11:40 】
感谢carman兄非常到位的点评，您说的不错，关键是思考企业什么方面的因素造就了它的卓越，任何数据指标的运用都不能脱离定性思考而单独进行。当然定性思考也不能脱离完善的数据分析，否则会比单纯的定量分析更容易令人误入歧途，而任何投资思考的最终还都是要在数字上体现出来的。上面的表是我为处理各种企业的报告数据而设计的模型，茅台的数据仅是为了举例，对它来讲可能有很多指标会显得多余和重复，但对于那些产业及经营环境复杂，行业特性所导致的对各指标敏感度不同的企业来说，有些指标的存在是有其意义的，甚至由于行业的不同，上面还会有很多疏漏的地方，这也是我想让大家补充的。我希望通过大家的交流开发出一种适用于各种类型企业的傻瓜模型，让那些对财务公式不熟悉的人也能够进行数据分析和估值处理，这样才能够真正将基本面分析的风气贯彻下去。
另外，上面两位对茅台品牌的争论，我觉得都没错，孙大炮陈述的是会计记帐的事实，wjlll...所想表达的意思也正确，除飞天商标原属于粮油公司但今年以300万年使用费有偿归属有限公司外，其他商标都是以非常公允甚至偏低的价格由上市公司使用且50年后无偿转让的，而且相关协议很清楚，具体细则上看上市公司实际上是占了很大便宜的。所以孙大炮说的记帐价值为零并不意味着他在估值上也进行了为零处理，你们说是吗？：）
工具箱
【 · 原创:茅台03 2005-10-24 23:27 】
这里把茅台新出的3季度数据计算也贴出来吧，大家可以多看看。。（注：电脑评级共分6类，分别是完美、优异-强买、优-买入、良-可关注、中性和回避）
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| | 贵州茅台 | 05年3季报 | 05年中报 | 05年1季报 | 04年年报 | 04年3季报 | 04年中报 | 04年1季报 | 03年年报 | 03年3季报 | 03年中报 | 03年1季报 | 02年年报
| | 当季收盘价 | 49.46 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05 | 25.46
| | 赢利能力评分-注1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 94.16 | 100.00 | 99.06 | 94.84 | 88.98 | 81.17 | 80.66 | 80.83 | 80.61
| | 成长能力评分-注2 | 82.97 | 87.92 | 86.91 | 83.93 | 91.06 | 88.10 | 49.03 | 94.27 | 53.10 | 32.18 | 20.67 | 52.58
| | 估值情况评分-注3 | 49.63 | 55.14 | 62.41 | 62.13 | 63.89 | 77.80 | 75.94 | 82.98 | 86.44 | 73.57 | 70.00 | 67.42
| | 信用情况评分-注4 | 88.70 | 91.12 | 91.28 | 86.76 | 90.49 | 91.40 | 90.86 | 91.19 | 91.10 | 90.57 | 90.16 | 89.70
| | 综合情况评价-注5 | 81.17 | 84.27 | 85.80 | 82.34 | 87.34 | 89.69 | 75.97 | 89.29 | 75.06 | 65.34 | 61.01 | 69.81
| | 每股收益（元） | 1.49 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.37
| | 每股净资产（元） | 9.99 | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16 | 10.37
| | 当季收入占比 | 34.66% | 32.15% | 100.00% | 31.00% | 36.52% | 35.08% | 100.00% | 35.33% | 35.57% | 26.70% | 100.00% | 25.63%
| | 当季利润占比 | 31.67% | 23.10% | 100.00% | 37.13% | 32.30% | 25.07% | 100.00% | 39.58% | 28.77% | 13.82% | 100.00% | 17.99%
| | 预估全年净利润(亿) | 11.17 | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 3.77
| | 预估全年每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.37
| | 预估全年主营业务收入(亿) | 37.40 | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72 | 18.34
| | 市净率(倍) | 4.95 | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33 | 2.45
| | 市销率(折算为全年数据) | 6.24 | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83 | 3.82
| | 市盈率(折算为全年数据) | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | 市盈率(倍)(含债调整去息税)折为全年 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | ＰＥＧ（以当期ＲＯＥ为增长标准） | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.41
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均净利增长为标准） | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0.35 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0!
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增长为标准） | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0.40 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0!
| | 本期主营业务利润率 | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03% | 64.01%
| | 本期综合业务利润率 | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22% | 64.18%
| | 本期净利润率 | 27.22% | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69% | 20.55%
| | 本期净利润率同比提高率 | 9.32% | 7.19% | 5.25% | 11.81% | 9.03% | 5.19% | 3.27% | 18.99% | 0.83% | 1.39% | 3.47% | 1.26%
| | 预估全年投入资本报酬率 | 23.45% | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85% | 12.88%
| | 预估全年股东权益报酬率 | 23.71% | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96% | 13.21%
| | 当季权益报酬率 | 4.78% | 2.44% | 8.85% | 7.88% | 4.40% | 2.36% | 7.60% | 7.26% | 3.29% | 1.14% | 7.63% | 2.39%
| | 当季权益报酬率同比变化率 | 8.85% | 3.30% | 16.44% | 8.60% | 33.59% | 108.03% | -0.34% | 203.95% | 28.32% | -2.77% | -6.30% | #DIV/0!
| | 股本同比变动率 | 20.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 可持续增长率 | 21.60% | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10% | 11.28%
| | 最大内部融资增长率 | 121.11% | 130.31% | 225.25% | 83.59% | 101.12% | 122.92% | 116.25% | 75.03% | 41.59% | 34.07% | 74.97% | 28.16%
| | 总收入同比增长率 | 24.65% | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09% | 13.35%
| | 净利润同比增长率 | 36.27% | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63% | 14.78%
| | 税前利润同比增长率 | 31.39% | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02% | 6.92%
| | 总市值环比增长率 | 10.63% | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32% | -0.62%
| | 债务杠杆 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.38
| | 生息负债率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 资产负债率 | 33.40% | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28% | 27.43%
| | 每股生息负债(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息债务占负债比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 实际所得税率 | 36.16% | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97% | 39.52%
| | 净利润现金含量 | 125.80% | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14% | 115.18%
| | 主营业务收入现金含量 | 109.93% | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16% | 106.63%
| | 每股营运资金(元) | 6.06 | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58 | 7.04
| | 短期借款占营运资金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股资本性支出(元) | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 1.70
| | 每股投入资本净额(元) | 10.10 | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26 | 10.64
| | 每股自由现金流(元) | 1.05 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36) | (0.12)
| | 每股经营活动产生的现金流（元） | 1.87 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03 | 1.58
| | 营业费用与收入之比 | 14.39% | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64% | 16.79%
| | 管理费用与收入之比 | 8.39% | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31% | 12.98%
| | 财务费用与收入之比 | -0.55% | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.95%
| | 投资支出占收入之比 | 15.06% | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55% | 25.71%
| | 存货周转率 - 单期值 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.32
| | 总资产周转率-单期值 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47
| | 净资产周转率-单期值 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.64
| | 应收帐款周转率--单期值 | 107.57 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69 | 50.21
| | 流动资产周转率--单期值 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.63
| | 固定资产周转率--单期值 | 5.01 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10 | 3.88
| | 存货储存期(天) | 928.70 | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85 | 1139.93
| | 应付帐款付款期(天) | 11.79 | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37 | 25.41
| | 应收帐款回收期(天) | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81 | 7.17
| | 预付帐款占用期(天) | 4.90 | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54 | 6.48
| | 预收帐款信用期（天） | 117.87 | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85 | 75.92
| | 现金占总资产比例 | 45.45% | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20% | 45.29%
| | 存货占总资产比例 | 23.80% | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82% | 27.39%
| | 总资产环比增加比例 | 5.18% | 2.39% | 3.11% | 13.24% | 11.68% | 3.81% | -2.04% | 10.97% | 13.35% | 1.03% | -0.76% | 6.33%
| | 应付款项占总资产比例 | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38% | 0.61%
| | 应收款项占总资产比例 | 0.57% | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53% | 1.09%
| | 预收款项占总资产比例 | 20.24% | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19% | 11.51%
| | 预付款项占总资产比例 | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81% | 0.16%
| | 固定资产占总资产比例 | 10.52% | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64% | 11.96%
| | 无形资产占总资产比例 | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 现金与全年预计收入之比 | 86.03% | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99% | 97.06%
| | 流动比例 | 2.24 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60 | 2.83
| | 速动比率 | 1.51 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30 | 1.81
| | 成本与收入之比 | 17.46% | 17.44% | 17.19% | 17.84% | 17.77% | 17.50% | 17.73% | 19.88% | 19.33% | 19.69% | 18.55% | 18.54%
| | 其他税费(亿) | 8.29 | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80 | 4.97
| | 资本性支出(亿) | 3.89 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.07 | 4.67
| | 经营性现金周期（天） | 190.10 | 178.16 | 168.52 | 228.04 | 198.70 | 169.65 | 186.51 | 215.25 | 249.48 | 247.55 | 231.16 | 240.99
| | 单位收入需投入现金 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.60
| | 单位收入产生的现金 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.36
| | 单位收入可用于增长的现金 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.11
| | 投资评级及建议-电脑得出仅供参考 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优异-强买 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性
| |
【 · 原创:shiruogui 2005-11-09 17:14 】
茅台是肯定会涨假的
五粮液已经300多了。茅台还是200多，相差100元人民币啊
工具箱
【 · 原创:职业投资者 2005-12-04 23:12 】
茅台需要的把多余的现金分给股东或者回购股票。
工具箱
【 · 原创:wlone 2006-02-13 12:32 】
哇,茅台的填权的价格已经快到120元了,好牛啊.
工具箱
【 · 原创:茅台03 2006-04-05 17:33 】
今天是茅台年报公布的日子，应朋友要求把数据贴在下面，有兴趣的可以看看。另外，个别基准值有所改动，与之前冲突之处以最新的数据为准。|
| | 贵州茅台 | 05年年报 | 05年3季报 | 05年中报 | 05年1季报 | 04年年报 | 04年3季报 | 04年中报 | 04年1季报 | 03年年报 | 03年3季报 | 03年中报 | 03年1季报 | 02年年报
| | 当季收盘价 | 45.62 | 49.46 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05 | 25.46
| | 赢利能力评分-注1 | 99.94 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 95.76 | 100.00 | 98.92 | 94.65 | 90.22 | 81.18 | 80.62 | 80.82 | 80.53
| | 成长能力评分-注2 | 92.09 | 86.70 | 90.39 | 86.91 | 84.16 | 91.06 | 89.89 | 51.91 | 94.27 | 55.21 | 33.05 | 21.47 | 54.69
| | 估值情况评分-注3 | 50.45 | 45.81 | 51.08 | 58.19 | 56.36 | 58.86 | 70.34 | 68.48 | 73.02 | 75.01 | 63.94 | 60.80 | 58.87
| | 信用情况评分-注4 | 81.89 | 88.53 | 90.94 | 91.09 | 85.68 | 90.12 | 90.86 | 89.74 | 91.04 | 90.47 | 89.48 | 89.11 | 88.70
| | 综合情况评价-注5 | 85.49 | 83.36 | 85.95 | 86.16 | 82.81 | 87.65 | 89.24 | 73.96 | 88.28 | 71.78 | 61.52 | 56.87 | 67.97
| | 每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 1.49 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.37
| | 每股净资产（元） | 10.79 | 9.99 | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16 | 10.37
| | 每股自由现金流(元) | 2.44 | 1.05 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36) | (0.12)
| | 预估全年净利润(亿) | 11.19 | 11.17 | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 3.77
| | 预估全年每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.37
| | 当季主营业务收入(亿) | 13.50 | 8.94 | 5.42 | 11.44 | 9.30 | 7.56 | 4.61 | 8.53 | 8.48 | 5.52 | 2.67 | 7.33 | 4.70
| | 预估全年主营业务收入(亿) | 39.31 | 37.40 | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72 | 18.34
| | 市净率(倍) | 4.23 | 4.95 | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33 | 2.45
| | 市销率(折算为全年数据) | 5.48 | 6.24 | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83 | 3.82
| | 市盈率(折算为全年数据) | 19.25 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | 市盈率(倍)(含债调整去息税)折为全年 | 19.25 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | ＰＥＧ（以当期ＲＯＥ为增长标准） | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.41
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均净利增长为标准） | 0.44 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 无数据输入 | 0.68 | 无数据输入 | 0.35 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 0.90
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增长为标准） | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 无数据输入 | 0.76 | 无数据输入 | 0.40 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 无数据输入 | 0.67
| | 预估全年总资产报酬率 | 13.88% | 15.79% | 16.76% | 17.61% | 12.87% | 15.16% | 16.09% | 14.52% | 11.84% | 9.68% | 10.15% | 10.21% | 9.59%
| | 预估全年投入资本报酬率 | 21.67% | 23.45% | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85% | 12.88%
| | 预估全年股东权益报酬率 | 21.97% | 23.71% | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96% | 13.21%
| | 二级市场现金收益率-本期 | 5.62% | 2.46% | 1.08% | 0.88% | 5.39% | 1.24% | -2.47% | -3.38% | 13.07% | 3.50% | -4.41% | -1.78% | -0.64%
| | 总收入同比增长率 | 31.02% | 24.65% | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09% | 13.35%
| | 净利润同比增长率 | 36.41% | 36.27% | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63% | 14.78%
| | 当季收入同比增长率 | 45.18% | 18.30% | 17.57% | 34.11% | 9.67% | 36.96% | 72.66% | 16.37% | 80.43% | 35.18% | 12.35% | 2.09% | -70.95%
| | 当季净利润同比增长率 | 36.64% | 33.63% | 26.70% | 41.16% | 31.14% | 63.24% | 150.72% | 20.17% | 242.48% | 43.66% | 9.06% | 5.63% | -79.35%
| | 净利润率 | 28.46% | 27.22% | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69% | 20.55%
| | 主营业务利润率 | 69.03% | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03% | 64.01%
| | 当季净利润率 | 30.81% | 24.88% | 20.45% | 32.27% | 32.74% | 22.02% | 18.98% | 30.66% | 27.38% | 18.48% | 13.07% | 29.69% | 14.43%
| | 当季主营业务利润率 | 73.34% | 66.74% | 63.58% | 68.30% | 82.78% | 65.34% | 65.94% | 68.23% | 74.67% | 60.11% | 64.91% | 65.03% | 57.45%
| | 当季权益报酬率 | 8.17% | 4.72% | 2.38% | 8.13% | 7.30% | 4.31% | 2.31% | 7.07% | 6.75% | 3.19% | 1.13% | 7.09% | 2.38%
| | 当季权益报酬率同比变化率 | 11.87% | 9.54% | 3.21% | 15.09% | 8.17% | 35.18% | 105.18% | -0.29% | 184.02% | 27.50% | -2.58% | -5.83% | -81.68%
| | 经营性现金流同比增长率 | 73.57% | 136.49% | 1249.55% | 233.57% | 3.59% | -14.88% | -11.82% | -2115.37% | 117.05% | 无数据输入 | 81.13% | 无数据输入 | 918.78%
| | 综合业务利润率 | 69.03% | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22% | 64.18%
| | 当季综合业务利润率 | 73.34% | 66.74% | 63.58% | 68.30% | 82.78% | 65.34% | 65.94% | 68.23% | 74.67% | 60.11% | 64.91% | 65.22% | 57.45%
| | 当季毛利率同比提高率 | -11.40% | 2.14% | -3.58% | 0.11% | 10.87% | 8.71% | 1.60% | 4.91% | 29.98% | -8.41% | -2.62% | -2.23% | -8.21%
| | 存货同比增长率 | 9.85% | 11.10% | 26.56% | 28.23% | 39.40% | 24.68% | 9.56% | 22.29% | 12.86% | 21.59% | 20.30% | 27.58% | 36.97%
| | 应收帐款同比增长率 | 39.67% | -5.19% | 55.17% | 25.63% | 13.79% | 43.00% | -11.59% | -61.64% | -35.68% | -56.52% | -21.72% | -12.08% | -8.49%
| | 预收帐款同比增长率 | 48.83% | 52.40% | 65.83% | 74.54% | 39.18% | 27.03% | 70.12% | 242.15% | 64.64% | 131.97% | 76.09% | -2.17% | 47.88%
| | 营业费用与收入之比 | 12.11% | 14.39% | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64% | 16.79%
| | 管理费用与收入之比 | 8.92% | 8.39% | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31% | 12.98%
| | 财务费用与收入之比 | -0.82% | -0.55% | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.95%
| | 当季期间费用占收入比 | 16.36% | 22.66% | 27.15% | 19.55% | 16.78% | 25.13% | 29.27% | 21.23% | 29.77% | 26.71% | 39.12% | 18.64% | 31.81%
| | 期间费用占收入比同比增长率 | -8.43% | -9.08% | -8.53% | -7.88% | -17.37% | -2.35% | -0.25% | 13.85% | -7.32% | -9.91% | -1.58% | -4.55% | 15.61%
| | 当季期间费用占收入比同比增长率 | -2.54% | -9.85% | -7.23% | -7.88% | -43.63% | -5.89% | -25.17% | 13.85% | -6.39% | -24.74% | -0.96% | -4.55% | 27.61%
| | 存货环比增长率 | 10.47% | 0.98% | 1.71% | -3.17% | 11.72% | 15.02% | 3.05% | 5.27% | -0.07% | 1.07% | 15.02% | -2.85% | 7.66%
| | 应收帐款环比增长率 | 7.41% | -9.62% | 56.41% | -8.02% | -27.09% | 47.93% | 26.64% | -16.68% | -8.38% | -8.54% | -45.06% | 39.69% | -38.07%
| | 存货周转率 - 单期值 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.32
| | 总资产周转率-单期值 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47
| | 净资产周转率-单期值 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.64
| | 应收帐款周转率--单期值 | 105.27 | 107.57 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69 | 50.21
| | 流动资产周转率--单期值 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.63
| | 固定资产周转率--单期值 | 4.00 | 5.01 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10 | 3.88
| | 股本同比变动率 | 20.00% | 20.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 税前利润同比增长率 | 28.88% | 31.39% | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02% | 6.92%
| | 总市值环比增长率 | -7.76% | 10.63% | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32% | -0.62%
| | 债务杠杆 | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.38
| | 生息负债率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 资产负债率 | 36.81% | 33.40% | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28% | 27.43%
| | 每股生息负债(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息债务占负债比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 其他税费(亿) | (7.51) | 8.29 | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80 | 4.97
| | 每股营运资金(元) | 6.62 | 6.06 | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58 | 7.04
| | 短期借款占营运资金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股资本性支出(元) | 1.15 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 1.70
| | 每股投入资本净额(元) | 10.94 | 10.10 | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26 | 10.64
| | 每股经营活动产生的现金流（元） | 3.59 | 1.87 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03 | 1.58
| | 投资支出占收入之比 | 13.76% | 15.06% | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55% | 25.71%
| | 存货储存期(天) | 974.81 | 928.70 | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85 | 1139.93
| | 应付帐款付款期(天) | 15.89 | 11.79 | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37 | 25.41
| | 应收帐款回收期(天) | 3.42 | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81 | 7.17
| | 预付帐款占用期(天) | 6.49 | 4.90 | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54 | 6.48
| | 预收帐款信用期（天） | 120.81 | 117.87 | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85 | 75.92
| | 现金占总资产比例 | 48.30% | 45.45% | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20% | 45.29%
| | 存货占总资产比例 | 23.09% | 23.80% | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82% | 27.39%
| | 总资产同比增加比例 | 26.42% | 25.74% | 33.51% | 35.36% | 28.60% | 26.03% | 27.92% | 24.49% | 26.11% | 20.83% | 15.20% | 13.08% | 13.49%
| | 应付款项占总资产比例 | 0.38% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38% | 0.61%
| | 应收款项占总资产比例 | 0.54% | 0.57% | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53% | 1.09%
| | 预收款项占总资产比例 | 19.15% | 20.24% | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19% | 11.51%
| | 预付款项占总资产比例 | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81% | 0.16%
| | 固定资产占总资产比例 | 23.71% | 10.52% | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64% | 11.96%
| | 无形资产占总资产比例 | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 现金与全年预计收入之比 | 99.02% | 86.03% | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99% | 97.06%
| | 流动比例 | 2.08 | 2.24 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60 | 2.83
| | 速动比率 | 1.44 | 1.51 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30 | 1.81
| | 综合税率 | 32.60% | 31.90% | 30.82% | 29.67% | 32.05% | 31.78% | 30.72% | 29.17% | 28.19% | 31.86% | 31.06% | 32.35% | 31.43%
| | 实际所得税率 | 39.12% | 36.16% | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97% | 39.52%
| | 可持续增长率 | 19.19% | 21.60% | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10% | 11.28%
| | 最大内部融资增长率 | 252.91% | 121.11% | 130.31% | 225.25% | 83.59% | 101.12% | 122.92% | 116.25% | 75.03% | 41.59% | 34.07% | 74.97% | 28.16%
| | 净利润现金含量 | 151.42% | 125.80% | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14% | 115.18%
| | 主营业务收入现金含量 | 108.22% | 109.93% | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16% | 106.63%
| | 经营性现金周期（天） | 197.57 | 190.10 | 178.16 | 168.52 | 228.04 | 198.70 | 169.65 | 186.51 | 215.25 | 249.48 | 247.55 | 231.16 | 240.99
| | 单位收入需投入现金 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.60
| | 单位收入产生的现金 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.36
| | 单位收入可用于增长的现金 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.11
| | 投资评级及建议-电脑得出仅供参考 | 优-买入 | 优-买入 | 优异-强买 | 优异-强买 | 优-买入 | 优异-强买 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 优异-强买 | 良-可关注 | 中性 | 回避 | 中性
| |
【 · 原创:looklaw 2006-04-05 18:43 】
谢谢
工具箱
【 · 原创:rissun 2006-04-05 19:33 】
ddd
工具箱
【 · 原创:w811880 2006-04-05 20:11 】
令人不解的是，2002年年报时，价格（除权）相当于14.25；2003年一季度报时，价格相当于13.81；2003年中报公布时，价格相当于14.36。以上这些时点，贴主给出的意见分别是中性、回避、中性；而当今价格比当时已经翻了两番还多，意见确成了买入。
这个地方，似乎不符合常识。
工具箱
【 · 原创:茅台03 2006-04-06 17:15 】
w811880：你好！谢谢你的质疑，我之前在其他贴中说过，这个表格的设计是想结合最佳的基本面买卖时点而做的，所以在其中特别重视成长点的起跳，揉进了较大的权重，你可以观察到，它给出回避意见的时候茅台的销售增长只有2.09%，净利润增长仅5.63%，所以电脑就给出了回避意见。虽然从企业的层面上来说，你可能认为这不合常识，但从二级市场来讲，还是符合股价的催化因素的。当然，这些都是我设定指标电脑自动得出的，肯定有不灵活和不全面的地方，仅做参考吧。：）
工具箱
【 · 原创:听者 2006-04-06 21:16 】
3Q!
工具箱
【 · 原创:隐市 2006-07-26 16:42 】
好强的财务分析能力，隐市很佩服。一直没有看别人帖子的习惯，所以与良师益友晚识了一年，甚为遗憾。
请问“茅台03”是作什么工作的？能提供联系方式给我吗？
工具箱
【 · 原创:隐市 2006-07-26 16:45 】
邮箱：LDB1816@yahoo.com.cn
工具箱
【 · 原创:wlone 2006-07-26 17:44 】
隐市,茅台兄的联系方式其他贴里都有的啊.我给你转贴过来吧,,MSN是maotai03@hotmail.com,邮箱是maotai03@sohu.com
你的贴我有看, 隐市兄也是高手啊, 能介绍两大高手相识,很荣幸.
工具箱
【 · 原创:茅台03 2006-07-28 08:50 】
隐市兄好，我的情况在其他贴中也有提及，兄台一看便知，wlone贴的资料没错，您可以按此联系，非常高兴能认识您，欢迎经常交流！另外，谢谢wlone兄的热情代答。：）
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