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Israel
以色列
Winning the battle, losing the war 赢了冲突，输掉战争
For all its military might, Israel faces a grim future unless it can secure peace
尽管军事实力强大，但以色列所面对的是一个暗淡的未来，除非它能够确保和平。
Aug 2nd 2014 | From the print edition of The Economist
译者：老狒狒
HAMAS has ruled Gaza since 2007 and there is not much to admire. The Islamist party is harsh, narrow-minded and intolerant of dissent. Its charter is anti-Semitic. It fires rockets into Israeli territory and builds tunnels under it to kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers. It knows that the Israeli attacks it provokes will kill hundreds of Palestinian civilians, which will garner sympathy around the world. It is also weaker than it was, for it is now losing the military battle against Israel.
自2007年以来，哈马斯就在统治加沙。但是，这不是一个太值得崇拜的伊斯兰政党。它凶狠残暴，心胸狭窄，不容异己。它把反对犹太人作为自己的宗旨。它向以色列境内发射火箭弹，为杀死或绑架以军士兵而在以色列的地下构筑地道。它深知，由它激起的以色列的攻击会杀死数以千计的巴勒斯坦平民，这会为它赢得全世界的同情。另外，从它正在输掉与以色列的军事冲突来看，这还说明了另一个问题。那就是：它已经一天不如一天了。
By contrast Israel is the most successful state in the Middle East. It is the region's only true democracy—a hub of invention, enterprise and creativity. Israel has overwhelming firepower in the fight in Gaza. Most of its people are united behind their soldiers and have the firm backing of America's Congress. Yet, though Israel is winning the battle, it is struggling in the war for world opinion (see article). That matters in part because Israel is a cosmopolitan trading country that looks to its American ally for security, but also because Israel needs to hear some of what its critics are saying.
相比之下，以色列是中东最成功的国家。它是该地区唯一一个真正的民主国家，是发明、创业和创新的中心。在加沙的战场上，以色列拥有压倒性的火力。大多数国民都团结在士兵的身后，并且还有美国国会的坚定支持。不过，就在以色列在战场上取胜的同时，却在争取世界舆论的这场战争中苦苦挣扎。这一点非常重要。究其原因，一则，以色列是一个其境内生活着各种民族的贸易国家，这种国家大都是向美国盟友寻求安全保障；再者，以色列需要听取一些舆论的意见。
Anti-Semitism: a very light sleeper
反犹太主义：一个一触即醒的睡眠者
A generation ago, Israel had the best of the argument with Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organisation, in many ways a less vile outfit than Hamas. Young Europeans spent their gap years on kibbutzim. The Western world cheered when Israeli commandos rescued Jewish hostages from the terminal building in Uganda's Entebbe airport in 1976.
一代人之前，以色列曾在阿拉法特的巴勒斯坦解放组织，这个在许多方面都不如哈马斯卑劣的组织的身上，赢得过最热烈的掌声。欧洲的年轻人在基布兹农场中渡过了他们的学业间隙年。1976年，当以军突击队从乌干达恩德培机场的候机楼中将犹太人人质解救出来时，西方世界曾欢呼雀跃 。
But as the occupation of Palestinian territory has dragged on, sympathy has seeped away. In a poll published in June, before the destruction of Gaza, the citizens of 23 countries put the balance of those who think Israel is a good or bad influence on the world at minus 26%, ranking it below Russia and above only North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. A growing number of Europeans call Israel racist (with the sinister flourish that Israelis, of all people, should know better). And even in America, where a solid majority backs Israel, the share that thinks its actions against the Palestinians are unjustified has risen since 2002 by five percentage points, to 39%. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, Israel is backed by just a quarter.
但是，随着对巴勒斯坦领土的占领一拖再拖，同情心也随之而去。据在今年6月加沙遭毁灭之前进行的民调显示，在23个国家中，认为以色列对世界有负面影响的公民比例超过认为以色列对世界有正面影响的公民比例26个百分点，这使得以色列在对世界有负面影响的排行榜上的排名，仅次于北韩、巴基斯坦和伊朗，位居俄罗斯之前。在欧洲，越来越多的人认为，以色列是一个所有以色列人都应该有更深了解的邪恶盛行的种族歧视国家。即便是在大多数人都支持以色列的美国，认为其针对巴勒斯坦人的军事行动缺乏正当理由的人的比例，已经比2000年多出了5个百分点，达到39％。在18－29岁的人群中，以色列所获得的支持仅为四分之一。
Many Israelis, and their most fervent supporters in Congress, see today's hostility as the culmination of a long process of demonisation, double standards and delegitimisation. They have a point. Holding a country to high standards, as Israel's critics do, can be a compliment—yet against Israel, morality is often used as a cudgel. The common slur that Israel is an apartheid state ignores the fact that Israel's minorities, such as the Druze, Arabs and Bahais, are protected by the country's independent courts—including the highest, which has a sitting Arab Israeli judge. The “BDS” campaign to impose boycotts, encourage divestment and introduce sanctions calls not just for an end to the occupation of the West Bank and for equal rights, but also for the right of return of all Palestinian refugees—in other words, for the erosion of Israel as a Jewish homeland. Protests in France against the fighting in Gaza led to attacks on synagogues and Jewish-owned businesses.
在众多的以色列人以及他们在美国国会中的最狂热的支持者看来，今天的这种敌意是一个以妖魔化、双重标准和去合法化为特点的漫长进程的高潮。他们认为，像以色列的批评者那样，用高标准来要求一个国家的做法就是“捧杀”。相比之下，以道德来声讨以色列的做法就是“棒杀”。一个常见的妖魔化办法是把以色列说成是一个种族隔离国家。但是，这种诋毁忽视了这样一个事实：在以色列占少数的德鲁兹派、阿拉伯人和巴哈伊派都是受到该国包括拥有一位现任的阿拉伯以色列人法官的最高法院在内的独立法庭的保护的。以实施抵制、鼓励撤资和引入制裁为行动纲领的“BDS”运动，他们所呼吁的，不仅是结束对西岸的占领和平等的权利，还有所有巴勒斯坦难民回家的权利——换言之，这是对以色列作为犹太人家园这一事实的侵蚀。法国反对加沙战火的抗议活动导致了对犹太教会堂和犹太人商业的攻击。
No wonder that many Israelis feel that the world is against them, and believe that criticism of Israel is often a mask for antipathy towards Jews. But they would be wrong to ignore it entirely. That is partly because public opinion matters. For a trading nation built on the idea of liberty, delegitimisation is, in the words of an Israeli think-tank, “a strategic threat”. But it is also because some of the foreign criticism is right.
这也就难怪许多以色列人会有一种“整个世界都在反对他们”的感觉。这同时让他们相信，对以色列的批评经常是一种带着面具的对犹太人的反感。但是，如果他们完全忽视这种批评，那就错了。原因有二。第一，公众舆论举足轻重。对于一个以自由理念为立国基础的贸易国家来说，去合法化，用一家以色列智库的话来说是“一种战略上的威胁”。其次，外人的批评，有些也是正确的。
Please, hear them
请听取他们的意见
That begins with the scale of the violence in Gaza. Some 1,400 Palestinians have died in the past few weeks, compared with 56 Israeli soldiers and four civilians. Even allowing for Hamas's brutality, no democracy should be happy with a military strategy that results in the death of so many children (let alone the crass claim from Israel's ambassador to Washington that its soldiers deserve a Nobel peace prize). The destruction is driving support towards Hamas and away from the moderate Palestinians who are Israel's best chance for peace.
先从加沙暴力的程度说起。在过去的几周中，已经有大约1400名巴勒斯坦人死亡。相比之下，以色列方面有56名士兵和4名平民死亡。就算把哈马斯的残暴考虑在内，任何一个民主国家也不应该对造成如此之多的儿童死亡的军事战略感到高兴，更不用提以色列驻华盛顿大使有关以军士兵应当获得诺贝尔和平奖的粗鲁声明了。这种毁灭行为正在促使支持倒向哈马斯，远离作为以色列争取和平的最佳机会的巴勒斯坦温和派。
But more than that, Israel needs to hear what its critics say about the need for a two-state solution, which remains the only one that will work. Time is not on Israel's side. Palestinians may already outnumber Israelis in the lands they share. Without two states, Israelis and Palestinians will be left with one that contains them both. The risk for Israel is of either a permanent, non-democratic occupation that disenfranchises Palestinians, or a democracy in which Jews are in a minority. Neither would be the Jewish homeland with equal rights for all that Israel's founding fathers intended.
但是，除此之外，以色列还需要听取舆论在两国方案之必要性这一问题上所表达的意见。因为，两国方案仍是未来唯一可行的一种解决办法。时间不在以色列的一边。巴勒斯坦人或许早已在数量上超过了与他们共同生活在这块土地上的以色列人。抛弃两国方案，留给以色列人和巴勒斯坦人的将是一个包括他们双方都在内的国家。对以色列而言，风险体现在两个方面：要么是一种剥夺了巴勒斯坦人公民权的永久的、非民主的占领，要么是一种犹太人在其中占少数的民主制。在上述两种选择中，任何一种不会是以色列国父们所希望的那种所有人都享有平等权利的犹太人家园。
America's secretary of state, John Kerry, has made a Herculean effort to forge peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians along the lines of two states for two peoples. When the talks broke down, a few months ago, he blamed Israel's settler lobby. That outraged right-wing Israelis. And now the left has joined in the derision because he proposed a ceasefire in Gaza that Israelis thought favoured Hamas. But Mr Kerry is right. If Israel continues to build settlements in the occupied territory, it will gobble up land that would belong to an independent Palestinian state, making peace harder to reach.
美国国务卿克里一直在为以色列人和巴勒斯坦人按照两个民族两个国家的路线达成和平而付出艰辛的努力。当谈判在几个月前破裂时，他曾把责任归咎于以色列定居者的游说。这惹恼了以色列的右翼。如今，以色列的左翼也因为克里提出了一个在以色列看来是偏袒哈马斯的加沙停火建议而加入了嘲笑克里的队伍。但是，克里是对的。倘若以色列继续在占领区建设定居点，它会蚕食掉本应属于一个独立的巴勒斯坦国的土地，使和平更难以达成。
The same goes for what appears to be Israel's strategy towards both Gaza and the West Bank. Having created a huge open-air prison in Gaza, Israel remains committed to a blockade that contains Hamas—but also ensures that ever more Palestinians grow up angry. On the West Bank, Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has gone backwards: he has said that Israel cannot relinquish security control of the West Bank for fear of Islamist attack. That implies an intention to consolidate the occupation, thus withdrawing all hope from Palestinian moderates. The West Bank would be likely to explode too, then, while the demographic clock ticked on.
以色列针对加沙和西岸的策略似乎也犯了同样的错误。在把加沙变成了一个巨大的露天监狱后，以色列依旧在对包括哈马斯在内的一个区域实施封锁。只是，这种封锁也在确保越来越多的巴勒斯坦人在仇恨中长大。在西岸问题上，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡已经做出了让步。这表现在，他一直在说，以色列不可能因为担心伊斯兰主义者的攻击而放弃对西岸的安全控制。由于这一表态所暗含意思是说，以色列会强化占领，因而也就浇灭了巴勒斯坦温和派的所有希望。在这种情况下，西岸的内爆是早晚的事。与此同时，人口之钟却在嘀嗒作响。
For all the blood and misery in Gaza, Mr Netanyahu will soon have a chance to show he has heard the critics. Having won his battle, he could return to the negotiating table, this time with a genuine offer of peace. Every true friend of Israel should press him to do so.
鉴于加沙的流血和苦难，过不了多久，内塔尼亚胡就会有机会展示他已经听进了批评。已经在战场上获胜的他，可能会回到谈判桌上。只是，这一次，他可能会带着一份真诚的和平提议而来。每一位以色列的真正朋友都应当敦促他这样做。
From the print edition: Leaders
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