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编者按： 读过巴菲特历年致股东信和他在美国佛罗里达等多所大学的演讲的人都知道，喜诗糖果（see’s candy）是巴菲特十分钟爱的一家公司。巴菲特收购喜诗实际上只有1972年投入的1500万美元，到2007年，喜诗累计为伯克希尔产生了13.5亿美元的税前利润，交纳营业税后，净利润约为12.6亿美元（美国对于公司净所得在$10万以上者课6.4%营业税）。2007年度喜诗的税前利润是8200万美元（净利润约7600万美元）。假如喜诗当前的合理市盈率是10倍的话，那么，36年间伯克希尔从喜诗获得的红利加上喜诗当前的合理市值，是初始投入的134倍！而巴菲特收购喜诗的获利并不止于134倍，因为在他拿到喜诗的红利后，又去购买其他具有吸引力的业务，see’s为伯克希尔带来了“多重现金流”。喜诗收购案例给世人留下了太多的启示，对投资具有意义非凡的借鉴作用。 SEE’S CANDY – THEPROTOTYPE OF THE WIDE MOAT COMPANY 喜诗糖果——拥有宽广护城河公司的典范 Background 背景 See’s Candy manufactures, distributes and sells high quality candy through retail outlets. These retail locations are located primarily west of the Rockies and are heavily concentrated in California; 110 of its 211 stores are in California. The shops have a distinctive look with a black and white décor and an old-timey feel patterned after the founder’s mother’s kitchen. See’s has a reputation in the West for high quality and the product is associated with holidays, namely Valentine’s Day and Christmas. 喜诗糖果通过各地零售店来生产、分销和销售高质量的糖果。这些零售店的店址主要分布在落基山脉以西并且高度集中在加州（一共211家店加州就有110家）。这些店铺的外观往往都非常美貌，颜色以黑白，装潢以创始人母亲家的厨房为灵感。喜诗糖果在西部受欢迎的主要原因是产品不仅拥有高质量，而且通常是节日礼物的绝佳之选，就比如情人节和圣诞节。 The boxed chocolate industry in which See’s competes is small. Sales are estimated at just under $2 billion per year with little growth. Its main competitors are Godiva, who maintains a luxury image and does not try to compete on price, and Fanny Mae who undercuts See’s on price. 其实盒装巧克力的市场规模并不大。每年的营业额也就不到20亿，而且增量很小。喜诗糖果的主要竞争对手是以高端形象和价格出名的Godiva以及比喜诗糖果拥有更低的价格优势的Fanny Mae。 Buffett, through Blue Chip Stamps, acquired See’s Candy in 1972. Since that time, See’s has turned in an enviable long-term track record. 1972年，巴菲特通过伯克希尔哈撒韦控股的蓝筹印花公司收购了喜诗。从那时开始，喜诗糖果就开启了它令人艳羡的收益纪录。 Quantitative Evidence of a Moat 先从定量的角度看护城河 (All numbers are per Warren Buffett’s 1984 letter to shareholders and reflect the period 1973-1983.) （所有数据的时间背景为1973-1983，均取自巴菲特1984年的致股东信。） Key Stats: 关键数据： Operating Margin (10 yr) 8.68% 营运毛利（10年） 8.68% Sales CAGR (10 yr) 14% 销售额复合年增长率（10年） 14% NOPAT CAGR (10 yr) 19% 税后净营业利润复合年增长率（10年） 19% Average price increase 10% 平均价格增长 10% One metric is worth discussing further. See’s pricing power has often been extolled by Buffett. It can be seen here in the 10% annual average price increase. The ability to raise prices without hurting sales is one of the key hallmarks of a moat. 有一个指标十分值得我们继续讨论。喜诗糖果的议价能力经常被巴菲特称赞。我们也可以从上面看到每年平均的价格增长达到了10%。拥有强大的议价能力同时不损害销量是拥有护城河的一大标志。 Qualitative Evidence of a Moat 再从定性的角度看护城河 1. Customer Captivity through Brand Loyalty 1. 顾客拥有品牌忠诚度 Brand loyalty leads to customer captivity when frequent purchases of the same brand establish a deep allegiance that is difficult to undermine. Here, See’s has produced legions have fiercely loyal customers by seizing a large portion of “mind share” in California. It did through association with positive experiences. 品牌忠诚度能牢牢地抓住顾客，通过长期购买同一种品牌的产品建立起来的忠诚度是很难撼动的。在我们这个案例中，喜诗糖果在加州通过抓住市场中大份额的思维占有率（译者注：指消费者对某一产品的意识）建立了一支及其忠诚的“消费者大军”。这通常跟顾客愉悦的体验有关。 “Every person in California has something in mind about See’s Candy and overwhelmingly it was favorable. They had taken a box on Valentine’s day to some girl and she had kissed him. If she slapped him, we would have no business. As long as she kisses him, that is what people want in their minds. See’s Candy means getting kissed. If we can get that in the minds of people, we can raise prices.” “加利福尼亚的每个人的脑海中都有关于喜诗糖果的记忆，而且绝大部分都是很美好的。试想一下，他们情人节的时候买了一盒喜诗糖果送给心仪的女孩，然后他们接吻了，多美好。要是她给了他一巴掌，我们就没生意做了。只要女孩愿意吻他，多数人的心愿就达成了。也就是说，喜诗糖果就意味着甜甜的吻。如果我们能在消费者脑海中形成这样的印象，我们提价就轻而易举了。” A recent episode of “Mad Men” had a great description of this phenomenon of emotional attachment to a brand of chocolate. In the episode, the lead character, Don Draper, is pitching advertising work to two Hershey’s (HSY) executive. He describes Hershey’s chocolate as “the currency of affection.” The description is just as apt for See’s. 最近在电视剧《广告狂人》中有一集就详细讲述了这种现象中人们与巧克力之间的情感联系。在那一集中，主角Don Draper在给好时（译者注：同样是一个巧克力品牌）的两位高管出谋划策。他说好时巧克力打的就是“感情牌”。其实这个说法也同样适用于喜诗糖果。 The psychological concept of “social proof” also seems to play a role here. Social proof is a psychological phenomenon where people assume the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior for a given situation. This effect is prominent in ambiguous social situations where people are unable to determine the appropriate mode of behavior, and is driven by the assumption that surrounding people possess more knowledge about the situation. Consumers in California searching for an appropriate Valentine’s Day or Christmas gift looked to the crowd to see what was socially acceptable. More often than not, the crowd told them if See’s was not actually mandatory, it would not get them in trouble either. 心理学上的概念“社会认同感”在这里也起了不可小觑的作用。社会认同感是一种心理现象，指人们通常认为在特定的情境下别人的反映即是在该环境下正确的行为。这个现象的影响在某种模棱两可人们不知道该如何是好的情境下尤其重大，因为人们在这种情况下往往无法决定什么才是正确的行动，而且都认为别人一定都比自己懂得多。加州的消费者往往会随大流，看看情人节和圣诞节礼物大家都送啥。大多数情况下，大众的选择是——如果喜诗糖果不是白送的，那你买它准没错。 In any case, as a business analyst, we are not as concerned with the causes of brand loyalty as we are in the simple fact that it exists. Brand loyalty can be as difficult to understand as it is to undermine. 作为商业研究员，（我可以告诉你）不管在什么案例中，其实我们不是特别关心品牌忠诚度产生的原因，因为这就是一个摆在那儿的事实。而且品牌忠诚度这种东西和它难以撼动的本质一样令人难以理解。 2. Economies of Scale – Regional Dominance 2. 规模经济——区域优势 While not cheap, See’s can undercut its competitors like Godiva on price. This cost advantage is due to See’s reaping the advantages of its regional dominance in California. The business gets better the more stores it has in play in a given geographic area. The lower costs derived from See’s concentration strategy come primarily from three functions of the business. First, it spends less on distribution. The density of See’s stores reduces the distance its trucks have to travel and, therefore, lower gasoline expenses. 尽管也不便宜，喜诗糖果还是能在价格上削弱其竞争对手Godiva。这种成本优势得益于喜诗糖果在加州拥有区域优势。在某个区域内当然是生意越好店铺越多。低成本来自喜诗糖果的集中战略，这个战略主要根植于商业的三个功能。首先，他们在分销这部分花销少。喜诗糖果店铺的高密集度减少了运货的公里数，也就少了很多运费和油费。 Second, advertising expenses are reduced. See’s advertising expense is lower as a percentage of sales than its competitors because of the greater density of its stores and customers in the markets where they advertise. For example, See’s has 14 retail outlets within 20 miles of my parent’s house in Southern California. Godiva has 2. If we make the assumption that See’s also has 7 times the number of customers as Godiva, each dollar of See’s advertising in the region is reaching many more customers than Godiva. Even if we reduce the ratio by half, See’s strategy of regional dominance is generating much more bang for each buck spent on advertising. 第二，削减广告费用。喜诗糖果在广告方面的支出额占销售额的比例要低于他的竞争对手，主要是因为在在他们打广告的地方市场拥有极高的店铺密集度和大量的消费者。举个例子，喜诗糖果在加州南部我父母家20英里以内的地方有14家店。而Godiva只有两家。假设喜诗糖果的客流量也是Godiva的七倍，那么也就意味着喜诗糖果在特定区域内每花费一美元做广告赢得的消费者要比Godiva多得多。即使我们把数据减半，喜诗糖果的区域战略使花出去的每一笔广告费都物超所值。 The scale advantages produce a volume-price-volume virtuous circle. See’s achieves a cost advantage through scale and passes along its efficiency to customers through lower prices. These lower prices attract more customers, which further lowers the cost structure, permitting still lower prices and attracting yet more customers. 规模优势产生了一种量价关系的正循环。喜诗糖果通过规模效应形成了成本优势，通过低定价向消费者传递了出去。价格越低吸引的消费者就越多，这就会带来更低的成本架构，接着定价就会更低，吸引越来越多的消费者。 3.Capital Intensity 3. 资金密集度 The capital needs of See’s are ridiculously low. Here is Buffett on this subject in the 2007 letter to shareholders: 喜诗糖果运营需要的资金简直低到不可思议。下面是巴菲特在2007年致股东信中提到的： “The capital now required to run the business is $40 million. This means we have had to reinvest only $32 million since 1972 to handle the modest physical growth – and somewhat immodest financial growth – of the business. In the meantime pre-tax earnings have totaled $1.35 billion. All of that, except for the $32 million, has been sent to Berkshire (or, in the early years, to Blue Chip).” “运营公司需要的资金大约是四千万美元。这意味着我们从1972年开始为了企业能保持适度的增长，事实证明是高速增长，只再投资了三千二百万。同时税前利润达到了13.5亿。所有的利润，除去我们再投资的那三千二百万，全都流向了伯克希尔（早前是流向蓝筹印花）。” Assuming a 35% tax rate, just 6.7% of See’s net income was reinvested in the business from 1972 to 2007 despite a huge growth in profits. 假设税率是35%，那么从1972年到2007年的十年间只有6.7%的净利润流向了再投资来维持增长，这还是在盈利暴涨的前提下。 Growth Opportunities Inside the Moat 护城河中蕴藏的增长机遇 As stated above, the boxed chocolate market in the US is growing very slowly – limiting See’s opportunities for growth. Further attempts to expand outside the West have not gone well. An expansion into Japan was abandoned. A slow expansion into the Midwest and East is underway now with unknown results. Instead of investing its profits in expansion, Buffett merely tells See’s management, Send the check to Omaha! 正如我们上文所说，盒装巧克力市场在美国的增速十分缓慢——所以在增长方面喜诗糖果的机会不多。在西海岸以外的西区扩张进展的也不是很顺利。在日本索性放弃了这个计划。在中西部和东部地区正在摸索着缓慢的开展着，结局如何还不知道。巴菲特从来不关心扩张进展的如何，只是告诉喜诗的管理层，直接把支票寄到奥马哈！ Capital Allocation 资本配置 High returns on capital and excess cash flows are only useful if you have a management that is smart about deploying it. Buffett’s skills as a capital allocator are well known and have been covered in many other books, articles, blogs and websites. Needless to say, there is little to any risk of poor capital allocation. 高资本回报和过剩现金流只在你有一个懂得如何去分配资金的管理层时有用。巴菲特调配资本的能力尽人皆知，各种书籍报刊博客和网站已经详尽介绍过了。不用我说你也应该知道，喜诗糖果在资本配置方面几乎是没有风险的。 Cash Management 现金管理 The product is sold for cash, so there is no need for accounts receivable. 所以产品都是一手交钱一手交货使用现金交易，因此完全没有应收账款。
Risks 风险 1. Competition 1. 竞争 How would a competitor penetrate the moat? If we had 1 billion dollars, could we take on See’s? 那么竞争对手该如何穿越喜诗糖果的护城河呢？要是我们有十亿美元，我们能拿下喜诗吗？ First, the boxed chocolate market in California is not big enough to attract much attention. Its not worth the trouble for a national or international competitor. This is true for many niche and local operators. 首先，加州的盒装巧克力市场还没大到会引起别人注意的程度。国内国外的其他竞争对手也不想为了这么小个市场搞事情。对多数有利可图的市场和当地玩家来说都是如此。 Second, It would be extremely difficult for a competitor to lure loyal customers away from See’s. Brand X, if they had deep pockets, could spend millions of dollars in advertising to try and steal mind share from See’s. Would it work? Could they build all of the retail outlets to compete with See’s? Even if the advertising worked, the competitor would have to run losses for years as the advertising expense per customer would be very high. 其次，对于其他竞争者来说，从喜诗糖果那里分流消费者实在是太难了。X牌，如果他们有雄厚的财力的话话，肯定不止会花上个几百万去打广告从喜诗手里抢走思维占有率。但是成功了吗？他们建立起能和喜诗竞争的零售店了吗？即使广告有效果，竞争对手也得花好几年来恢复打广告损伤的元气，他们在每个消费者身上扔的广告费太高了。 See’s might very well respond to the competitive threat by lowering its prices. Unless Godiva or Fanny Mae have found a way to produce the item or deliver the service at a cost substantially below that of See’s, which is not likely, either the price at which they sell their offerings or the volume of sales they achieve will not be profitable for them, and therefore not sustainable. While Godiva has a well-maintained brand and a luxurious image, this does not translate into profits in See’s market area. 喜诗可能会通过降价来回击竞争对手的威胁。除非Godiva和Fanny Mae找到了方法能让生产和服务成本低过喜诗。但是这基本没可能，除非他们不想挣钱了。尽管Godiva把自己的高端品牌形象维持的很好，但是这在喜诗的市场区域并不能转换成利润。 One competitor tried to compete on the cheap by simply copying the distinctive look of See’s stores. This tactic was struck down in court as a trademark violation. 曾经有个厂家想试图通过模仿喜诗糖果店铺的装修来抢夺市场份额，但是这个策略因为侵权而被法庭彻底否决了。 2.Disruptive Technology Risk 2.颠覆性技术风险 In many industries, there is a constant threat that our current understanding of the market and the participant could be completely disrupted by the emergence of a completely new technology. As a very mature low-tech industry, the risk of disruptive technology seems quite low compared to say, the PC industry. 在很多行业中，我们也知道，有一个潜在的风险就是我们目前对于市场的理解以及市场参与者很有可能有一天会被新型的科技所取代。作为一个已经相当成熟的低技术含量产业，地府性技术风险对于喜诗糖果来说相对于电脑产业来讲基本上可以算是不不存在。 3.Inflation Risk 3.通货膨胀 While we have gotten used to rather low inflation, there have been periods in US history where this was not the case. At the time, Buffett purchased See’s, in fact, inflation was high and would be for a number of years. One of the great things about See’s is that it is almost impervious to inflation. Buffett famously raises prices each December 26 come rain or come shine. 对于我们来讲是已经习惯低通货膨胀率的，但是在美国历史上也有不同于现在的阶段。也是在那个时候，巴菲特出手买下了喜诗糖果。实际上，那个时候通货膨胀率非常高而且已经持续了数年了。喜诗糖果最棒的一点就是它基本上对通胀免疫。众所周知，巴菲特不论如何都会在每年的12月26号给喜诗糖果提价的。 4.Management Risk 4. 管理层风险 Does management understand the moat? Are they trying to widen it? Management widens the moat by ensuring that customers will only have positive associations with See’s. The company only sells candy of the highest quality. See’s chocolates are all preservative-free, and each box has the date it was filled and location in which it was filled so that the customer can see that they are getting the freshest product. Ingredients from suppliers are carefully examined by quality assurance teams at the factories for microbiologic compliance and purity. The company also emphasizes customer service. 喜诗的管理层知道护城河的存在吗？他们打算加宽护城河吗？管理层只在确保消费者想起喜诗糖果的时候只产生愉悦情绪时会拓宽护城河。公式多年来只专注买好糖。喜诗的所有巧克力都不含防腐剂，包装盒上还印有包装地和包装日期，这样消费者就可以知道自己受伤的是不是最新产品了。为确保合规和纯净，供应商提供的原材料会在生产厂经过质量保障组的检查。公司同时也秉承着顾客至上的原则。 Again, per Buffett: “If you are See’s Candy, you want to do everything in the world to make sure that the experience . . . leads to a favorable reaction. It means what is in the box, it means the person who sells it to you . . . And if the salesperson smiles at that last customer, our moat has widened and if she snarls at ‘em, our moat has narrowed. We can’t see it, but it is going on every day. But it is the key to it. It is the total part of the product delivery. It is having everything associated with it say See’s Candy and something pleasant happening. That is what business is all about.” 还是巴菲特说：“如果你是喜诗糖果，你会不惜一切代价来确保消费者的购物体验能带来正反馈。这也就是说盒子里是啥不重要，重要的是买给你这件东西的人。如果我们的店员对当天最后一个消费者笑了，那么我们的护城河就会加宽，但是如果店员态度不好，护城河就变窄了。我们虽然看不见，但是这种影响每天都在发生。而且是关键。这是我们产品要传递的一切。我们要使喜诗糖果和一切有趣的东西联系起来。这才是商业的真谛。” 5.Inventory Risk 5. 存货风险 One of the keys to the See’s business is the freshness of the product. The freshness is maintained by keeping the stores near the factories. This also reduces inventory risk as the factories are able to maintain just-in-time inventory. 喜诗糖果成功的关键点之一就是产品很新鲜。能保证新鲜产品的秘诀就是店铺和生产厂很近。这也同样降低了存货风险，因为生产厂恰好能及时生产新鲜的存货。 6.Unique Risks 6. 独特性风险 See’s relies on the addictive power of sugar to drive sales. This is a common characteristic of a number of Buffett’s investments (ie., Dairy Queen, Coke, Heinz, etc.). (For whatever reason, making money off this addiction avoids the moral taint that comes with investments in tobacco companies or casinos.) Is it possible that Americans could reverse course on sugar as they did with cigarettes? Anything is possible, but we would not bet against sugar. 喜诗糖果依靠的就是甜食的强大吸引力来驱动销售。这可以算是巴菲特投资的一大特点了（如，冰雪皇后、可口可乐、亨氏等）。（不管原因是啥，投资这类爱好型产业可以完美避开投资烟草公司和博彩行业带来的道德上的小污点。）有没有可能美国人会像对待香烟那样扭转对甜食的态度呢？没有不可能啦，但是我们是不会看空甜食的不是吗？
 格隆汇声明：格隆汇作为免费、开放、共享的海外投资研究交流平台，并未持有任何关联公司股票。转载本文，请务必注明来源“港股那点事”及作者。 利益声明：本文内容和意见仅代表作者个人观点，作者未持有该公司股票，作者提供的信息和分析仅供投资者参考,据此入市，风险自担！ |
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