第三章：经济护城河

1、投资者在判断公司时，经常看哪个公司利润增长得快，然后设想这种增长趋势可以长期持续，但最常见的现象是这种过去业绩增长快的公司，其增长速度很快就会降下来。原因很简单，利润吸引竞争，犹如白日之后是黑夜。利润越高，竞争就会越激烈。这是任何自由经济所固有的属性，资本总是流向高利润领域。于是，由于竞争者的不断蚕食，多数高利润企业趋向于越来越平庸。

Investors often judge companies by looking at which ones have increased profits the most and assuming the trend will persist in the future. But more often than not, the firms that look great in the rearview mirror wind up performing poorly in the future, simply because success attracts competition as surely as night follows day. And the bigger the profits, the stronger the competition. That's the basic nature of any (reasonably) free market-capital always seeks the areas of highest expected return. Therefore, most highly profitable firms tend to become less profitable over time as competitors chip away at their franchises.

2、评价经济护城河的四个步骤：

1）分析公司利润史。公司是否为资产或股份权益赚取了可靠利润？这是公司是否具有竞争优势的试金石。

Evaluate the firm's historical profitability. Has the firm been able to generate a solid return on its assets and on shareholders' equity? This is the true litmus test of whether a firm has built an economic moat around itself.

2）如果公司能够持续盈利，要认真评价公司利润来源。为什么公司能够抵御竞争？是什么东西阻止了竞争者分割它的利润？

If the firm has solid returns on capital and consistent profitability, assess the sources of the firm's profits. Why is the company able to keep competitors at bay? What keeps competitors from stealing its profits?

3）评估公司长期抵御竞争侵蚀的能力，即公司的竞争优势可以保持多长时间。有些公司的竞争优势可以保持几年，而有的可以保持几十年。

Estimate how long a firm will be able to hold off competitors, which is the company's competitive advantage period. Some firms can fend off competitors for just a few years, and some firms may be able to do it for decades.

4）分析行业的竞争格局。公司是怎样与行业内其它成员竞争的？这是一个多数公司都能很好盈利的行业，还是一个企业拼命维持有限利润的、竞争激烈的行业？

Analyze the industry's competitive structure. How do firms in this industry compete with one another? Is it an attractive industry with many profitable firms or a hypercompetitive one in which participants struggle just to stay afloat?

3、评价企业盈利能力要考察的几个问题：

1）公司能否产生自由现金流？如果可以，是多少？

现金是最重要资产之一，公司可以将其投向更挣钱的地方而不伤害已有的核心生意。若一个公司能够在销售收入中产生5%以上自由现金流，就是好公司。标普500中仅有一半公司能够达到这个标准。

2）公司净利润率是多少？

与自由现金流相似，净利润率从另一个侧面反映公司的盈利能力。

3）ROE是多少？

ROE大于15%，说明公司具有竞争优势。

4）ROA是多少？

6-7%的ROA是好公司底线。

4、当你考察上面的四个衡量标准时，多看几年的数据。一家公司能够连续多年具有好的ROE，健康的自由现金流和优秀的利润率，那么这家公司就比那些边际效益和现金流不稳定的公司具有更好的竞争优势。

When you're looking at all four of these metrics, look at more than just one year. A firm that has consistently cranked out solid ROES, good free cash flow, and decent margins over a number of years is much more likely to truly have an economic moat than a firm with more erratic results.

5、另外，这些标准都属于经验法则，不是硬性标准。将公司的这些参数与行业内其它企业进行对比是一个好的方法。当然，考察其趋势—是增加了还是降低了—也同样是个不错的主意。

In addition, these benchmarks are rules of thumb, not hard-and-fast cutoffs. Comparing firms with industry averages is always a good idea, as is examining the trend in profitability metrics-are they getting higher or lower?

6、尽管（在形成竞争优势上）好的行业很重要，但公司层面上的经营战略更重要。在一些没有竞争力的行业里一样有优秀的企业，这一事实表明公司经营战略至关重要。学术研究表明，在建立公司经济护城河的过程中，公司战略要比进入好的行业重要大约两倍以上。

Although being in an attractive industry can certainly help, the strategy pursued at the company level is even more important. The mere fact that there are excellent companies in fundamentally unattractive industries tells us intuitively that this must be the case. Academic research suggests that a firm's strategy is roughly twice as important as a firm's industry when it's trying to build an economic moat.

7、一般情况下，公司有五种手段可以建设竞争优势：

1）通过出众的技术或质量，从品质上拉开与同类产品的距离；

2）通过提升品牌可信度或声望，从声誉上拉开与同类产品的距离；

4）降低成本，以较低的价格提供类似的产品和服务；

5）客户转用其它产品时费用较高，以此固定客户群体；

6）通过建立更高的壁垒阻止竞争者进入，或提高成功进入的壁垒。

In general, there are five ways that an individual firm can build sustainable competitive advantage:

1）Creating real product differentiation through superior technology or features

2）Creating perceived product differentiation through a trusted brand or reputation

3）Driving costs down and offering a similar product or service at a lower price

4）Locking in customers by creating high switching costs

5）Locking out competitors by creating high barriers to entry or high barriers to success

8、要点回顾：

正如白昼之后是黑夜，成功必然导致竞争，公司的高利润就会随着时间慢慢消蚀。这就是为什么经济护城河这么重要的原因：它可以帮助优秀企业长期保持优秀。

Because success attracts competition as surely as night follows day, the most highly profitable companies tend to become less profitable over time. That's why economic moats are so important: They help great companies stay that way.

经济护城河的有力证据来自长期稳定的利润。仔细研究自由现金流、净利润率、ROE和ROA。

For concrete evidence of an economic moat, look for firms that consistently earn high profits. Focus on free cash flow, net margins, return on equity, and return on assets.

研究完以上指标，你要尽量找出公司竞争优势的来源。公司一般可以通过（真正的或看起来的）产品特色建立可持续的竞争优势，也可以通过降低成本、通过转换成本锁定顾客群或通过建立高的壁垒屏蔽竞争者等方法建立自己的竞争优势。

After you've looked at these specific measures, try to identify the source of the company's economic moat. Companies generally build sustainable competitive advantages through product differentiation (real or perceived), driving costs down, locking in customers with high switching costs, or locking out competitors through high barriers to entry.

通过两个侧面理解经济护城河：深度（公司可以挣多少钱）和广度（好于一般公司的表现能够保持多久）。一般情况下，通过技术革新建立起来的竞争优势难以长久维持。

Think about economic moats in two dimensions: depth (how much money the company can make) and width (how long it can sustain above-average profits). In general, any economic moat based on technological innovation is likely to be short-lived.

尽管行业的吸引力并不代表问题的一切，但是了解一个行业的竞争特点还是非常重要的，有些行业就是比其他行业容易赚钱。

Although the attractiveness of an industry doesn't tell the whole story, it's important to get a feel for the competitive landscape. Some industries are just easier to make money in than others.