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HOW quickly the unthinkable became the irreversible. A year ago few people imagined that the legions of Britons who love to whinge about the European Union—silly regulations, bloated budgets and pompous bureaucrats—would actually vote to leave the club of countries that buy nearly half of Britain's exports. Yet, by the early hours of June 24th, it was clear that voters had ignored the warnings of economists, allies and their own government and, after more than four decades in the EU, were about to step boldly into the unknown. 瞬间，不可想象的就变成了不可逆转的。一年前，很少有人想象的到，喜欢埋怨欧盟——它的愚蠢的监管、臃肿的预算和傲慢的官僚——的大不列颠军团会真的投票离开这个购买他们将近一半出口的国家俱乐部。然而，到6月24日早晨，一切都明朗了：选民把经济学家、盟友和自己政府的警告抛在了一边；在欧盟待了40多年后，即将无所畏惧地踏入未知之中。 The tumbling of the pound to 30-year lows offered a taste of what is to come. As confidence plunges, Britain may well dip into recession. A permanently less vibrant economy means fewer jobs, lower tax receipts and, eventually, extra austerity. The result will also shake a fragile world economy. Scots, most of whom voted to Remain, may now be keener to break free of the United Kingdom, as they nearly did in 2014. Across the Channel, Eurosceptics such as the French National Front will see Britain's flounce-out as encouragement. The EU, an institution that has helped keep the peace in Europe for half a century, has suffered a grievous blow. 英镑跌至30年低点的跳水道出了今后的滋味。随着信心暴跌，英国很可能跌入衰退。一个永远地丧失了一些活力的经济体，意味着更少的工作，更低的税收入账；最后，是额外的紧缩。这个结果还将动摇脆弱的世界经济。大都把票投给了“留下来”的苏格兰人，现在可能更迫切地，像他们在2014年差一点就成功了那样，脱离联合王国。海峡对岸，法国国民阵线等疑欧派将把英国人的拂袖离去当做是鼓舞。欧盟，一个把和平留在欧洲达半个世纪之久做出了贡献的组织，遭到了重重的一击。 Managing the aftermath, which saw the country split by age, class and geography, will need political dexterity in the short run; in the long run it may require a redrawing of traditional political battle-lines and even subnational boundaries. There will be a long period of harmful uncertainty. Nobody knows when Britain will leave the EU or on what terms. But amid Brexiteers' jubilation and Remain's recriminations, two questions stand out: what does the vote mean for Britain and Europe? And what comes next? 妥善处理见证了这个国家被年龄、阶层和地域所分裂的后续事宜，短期内需要政治灵活性；长期来看，可能需要一次传统政治战线、甚至是次国家边界的重新划分。今后将有一段漫长的有害不确定期。没有人知道英国会在何时、以何种条件离开欧盟。但是，在脱欧者的欢呼和留欧者的自责中，两个问题凸显出来：这次投票对英国和欧洲意味着什么？接下来又将如何？ The vote to Leave amounts to an outpouring of fury against the “establishment”. Everyone from Barack Obama to the heads of NATO and the IMF urged Britons to embrace the EU. Their entreaties were spurned by voters who rejected not just their arguments but the value of “experts” in general. Large chunks of the British electorate that have borne the brunt of public-spending cuts and have failed to share in Britain's prosperity are now in thrall to an angry populism. 把票投给“离开”是一次对“当权派”愤怒的宣泄。每一个人——从贝拉克·奥巴马到北约和国际货币基金组织领导人——都曾敦促英国人拥抱欧盟。他们的恳求已经被拒绝了他们的论点也拒绝了“专家”的普世价值的选民们一脚踢开。如今，大量的承受了公共开支消减的冲击又没能在英国的繁荣中分到一杯羹的选区都被一种愤怒的民粹主义所奴役。 Britons offered many reasons for rejecting the EU, from the democratic deficit in Brussels to the weakness of the euro-zone economies. But the deal-breaking feature of EU membership for Britain seemed to be the free movement of people. As the number of new arrivals has grown, immigration has risen up the list of voters’ concerns. 英国人提出了许多拒绝欧盟的理由——从布鲁塞尔的民主赤字到欧元区各经济体的疲软。但是，英国的欧盟成员资格的关键似乎是人员的自由流动。随着初来乍到之人的数量的增长，移民在选民关切名单中一路攀升。 Accordingly, the Leave side promised supporters both a thriving economy and control over immigration. But Britons cannot have that outcome just by voting for it. If they want access to the EU's single market and to enjoy the wealth it brings, they will have to accept free movement of people. If Britain rejects free movement, it will have to pay the price of being excluded from the single market. The country must pick between curbing migration and maximising wealth. 于是，脱欧一方就同时承诺给了支持者一个繁荣的经济和对移民的控制。但是，英国人不可能仅仅通过投票支持它就得到这种结果。如果他们希望进入欧盟单一市场并且享受它带来的财富，将不得不接受人员的自由流动。如果拒绝自由流动，将不得不付出被排除在单一市场之外的代价。这个国家必须在限制移民和最大化财富之间选边站队。 David Cameron is not the man to make that choice. Having recklessly called the referendum and led a failed campaign, he has shown catastrophic misjudgment and cannot credibly negotiate Britain's departure. That should now fall to a new prime minister. 戴维·卡梅伦不是做此选择的那种人。鲁莽地请求了这次公投并且领导了一场失败的造势活动的他，显示出了灾难性的误判，而且不可能令人信服地进行英国脱欧谈判。现在，这应落在一位新首相身上。 We believe that he or she should opt for a Norwegian-style deal that gives full access to the world's biggest single market, but maintains the principle of the free movement of people. The reason is that this would maximise prosperity. And the supposed cost—migration—is actually beneficial, as Leave campaigners themselves have said. European migrants are net contributors to public finances, so they more than pay their way for their use of health and education services. Without migrants from the EU, schools, hospitals and industries such as farming and the building trade would be short of labour. 我们相信，他或者她应当选择一项挪威式的协议，即那种给予完全进入世界最大单一市场、但却保留了人员自由流动原则的协议。原因在于，这将最大化繁荣。况且，想象的代价——移民——正如脱欧派自己所言，实际上是有益的。欧洲移民是对于公共财政的净贡献者，因而，他们不仅仅是为了他们对医疗和教育服务的使用而讨生活。没有了来自欧盟的移民，学校、医院以及农牧和建筑等行业会出现劳动力短缺。 The hard task will be telling Britons who voted to Leave that the free having and eating of cake is not an option. The new prime minister will face accusations of selling out—for the simple reason that he or she will indeed have to break a promise, whether over migration or the economy. That is why voters must confirm any deal, preferably in a general election rather than another referendum. This may be easier to win than seems possible today. While a deal is being done, the economy will suffer and immigration will fall of its own accord. 艰难的任务将是告诉把票投给了“离开”的英国人，免费得到蛋糕并把蛋糕吃下去不是一个选项。新首相——因为他或她，实际上将不得不在移民或经济问题上违背诺言这个简单的原因——将面临各种各样的甩卖指责。这就是选民必须确认任何协议的原因，最好是在一次大选中，而不是在另一次公投中。这可能比现在似乎是可能的要更容易赢下来一些。在协议在制定中时，经济将承压，移民将自动回落。 Brexit is also a grave blow for the EU. The high-priesthood in Brussels has lost touch with ordinary citizens—and not just in Britain. A recent survey for Pew Research found that in France, a founder member and long a strong supporter, only 38% of people still hold a favourable view of the EU, six points lower than in Britain. In none of the countries the survey looked at was there much support for transferring powers to Brussels. 英国脱欧也是对欧盟的一个沉重打击。布鲁塞尔的那些官老爷们已经失去了与普通公民的联系——不光是在英国。皮尤中心的一次最新民调发现，在法国，这个创始成员国和长期的坚定支持者那里，只有38%的民众仍对欧盟有好感，这比英国低了6个百分点。在这次调查所涉及的国家中，没有一个国家有着对将权力转交给布鲁塞尔的太多支持。 Each country feels resentment in its own way. In Italy and Greece, where the economies are weak, they fume over German-imposed austerity. In France the EU is accused of being “ultra-liberal” (even as Britons condemn it for tying them up in red tape). In eastern Europe traditional nationalists blame the EU for imposing cosmopolitan values like gay marriage. 每一个国家都以其自身的方式觉得不满。在经济疲软的意大利和希腊，他们对德国强加的紧缩火冒三丈。在法国，欧盟被指“极端自由”（就像英国人因为各种条条框框把他们束缚起来而指责欧盟一样）。在东欧，传统的民族主义者把同性婚姻等普世价值观的推行算到了欧盟身上。 Although the EU needs to deal with popular anger, the remedy lies in boosting growth. Completing the single market in, say, digital services and capital markets would create jobs and prosperity. The euro zone needs stronger underpinnings, starting with a proper banking union. Acting on age-old talk of returning powers, including labour-market regulation, to national governments would show that the EU is not bent on acquiring power no matter what. 尽管欧盟需要应付民众怒火，但是，救赎之道在于促进增长。在数字服务和资本市场等方面完善单一市场会创造工作并造就繁荣。欧元区需要更加强大的支撑，请从一个像样的银行联盟开始。说了很久的将包括劳动力市场监管在内的权力归还给各国政府的举措会表明欧盟没有醉心于权力的大包大揽。 This newspaper sees much to lament in this vote—and a danger that Britain will become more closed, more isolated and less dynamic. It would be bad for everyone if Great Britain shrivelled into Little England and be worse still if this led to Little Europe. The leaders of Leave counter with the promise to unleash a vibrant, outward-looking 21st-century economy. We doubt that Brexit will achieve this, but nothing would make us happier than to be proved wrong. 在这次投票中，本报发现许多需要为之哀叹的东西——并且还看到了英国将变得更加封闭、更加隔绝以及不在那么有活力的危险。倘若大不列颠萎缩成小英格兰，对每一个人来说都会是糟糕的；进而，如果这导致了小欧洲，那就更糟糕了。脱欧派领导人用释放出一个活力四射、外向型的21世纪经济体的诺言做出反击。我们对脱欧将实现这个诺言心存疑虑。但是，什么也比不上被证明错误的能让我们更快乐一些。 |
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