马克龙胜利的五大理由 译者：邓小雪&鲁城华 校对：倪婷 笔记：徐嘉悦 策划：徐嘉悦 本文选自 BBC | 取经号原创翻译 关注 取经号，回复关键词“外刊” 获取《经济学人》等原版外刊获得方法 Emmanuel Macron has triggered a political earthquake in French politics. 埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在法国政坛掀起轩然大波 A year ago, he was a member of the government of one of the most unpopular French presidents in history. 一年前，他还在法国历史上最不受欢迎政府之一担任职务。 Now, at 39, he has won France's presidential election,defeating first the mainstream centre left and centre right and now the far right as well. 现在，39岁的他最终赢得法国总统大选，相继击败主流中左翼和中右翼政党以及勒庞的极右翼政党。 He got lucky 因为幸运 No doubt about it, Mr Macron was carried to victory in part by the winds of fortune. 毫无疑问，马克龙胜选的部分原因，离不开命运的眷顾。 A public scandal knocked out the initial front-runner, centre-right candidate Fran?ois Fillon; and Socialist candidate Beno?t Hamon, already on the left fringe of the party, suffered a very public drubbing as traditional voters looked elsewhere. 中右翼候选人弗朗索瓦·菲永原本胜算最大，却因丑闻出局；社会党内的左翼分子、社会党候选人贝诺瓦·阿蒙，最终被传统选民抛弃。
'He was very lucky, because he was facing a situation that was completely unexpected,' says Marc-Olivier Padis, of Paris-based think tank Terra Nova. 巴黎智库Terra Nova 的Marc-Olivier Padis表示：“马克龙非常幸运，他面对的是完全没有预料的情形。” He was canny 因为精明 Luck doesn't tell the whole story. 运气不能解释全部。 Mr Macron could have gone for the Socialist ticket, but he realised after years in power and dismal public approval ratings the party's voice would always struggle to be heard. 马克龙原本可以争取社会党的提名，但他发现社会党执政多年之后，公众支持率惨淡，社会党的声音很难获得大众认同。 'He was able to foresee there was an opportunity when nobody could,' says Mr Padis. Padis说: “他能够预见其他人发现不了的机遇。” Instead, he looked at political movements that have sprung up elsewhere in Europe - Podemos in Spain, Italy's Five-Star Movement - and saw that there was no equivalent game-changing political force in France. 他注意到在欧洲其他国家正在风起云涌的政治运动——例如西班牙的“我们可以”（Podemos）和意大利的“五星运动”。他看到在法国还没有这样一个能够改变政治版图的政治力量。 In April 2016, he established his 'people-powered' En Marche! (On the move) movement and four months later he stood down from President Fran?ois Hollande's government. 2016年4月，马克龙发起了代表人民力量的名为“En Marche! ”“前进之中”政治运动，4个月后，马克龙辞去了在奥朗德政府中职务。 He tried something new in France 因为创新 Having established En Marche, he took his cue from Barack Obama's grassroots 2008 US election campaign, says Paris-based freelance journalist Emily Schultheis. 巴黎独立记者Emily Schultheis认为，马克龙成立“前进党”后，参考美国总统奥巴马2008年竞选时使用的草根竞选运动。 His first major undertaking was the Grande Marche (Big March), when he mobilised his growing ranks of energised but inexperienced En Marche activists. 他的第一个大型运动是 “大游行”（ Grande Marche），发动了一腔热情但缺乏经验的前进党支持者们。 'The campaign used algorithms from a political firm they worked with - who by the way had volunteered for the Obama campaign in 2008 - to identify districts and neighbourhoods that were most representative of France as a whole,' Ms Schultheis says. Schultheis女士说道：“这场运动与曾为奥巴马竞选服务的一家政治公司合作，利用算法找出最能代表整个法国整体的地区和社区。” 'They sent out people to knock on 300,000 doors.' “然后派出30万名志愿者挨家挨户宣传。” The volunteers didn't just hand out flyers - they carried out 25,000 in-depth interviews of about 15 minutes with voters across the country. That information was entered into a large database which helped inform campaign priorities and policies. 志愿者不仅仅散发传单，他们与全国的选民进行2.5万场15分钟深度访谈。所有的信息都被纳入大数据库，协助马克龙制定政策和开展竞选。
'It was a massive focus group for Macron in gauging the temperature of the country but also made sure that people had contact with his movement early on, making sure that volunteers knew how to go door to door. It was a training exercise that really laid the groundwork for what he did this year,' Ms Schultheis explains. “大规模的焦点小组访谈帮助马克龙试探水温，让民众在早期就参与活动，也让志愿者学习如何进行挨门挨户的走访。这种演练为他今年的竞选打下了基础。” And he capitalised on it. 马克龙从中收获巨大。 He had a positive message 因为政见正面积极 Mr Macron's political persona appears beset with contradictions. 马克龙的政治形象似乎充满了矛盾。 The 'newcomer' who was President Hollande's protege and then economy minister; the ex-investment banker running a grassroots movement; the centrist with a radical programme to slash the public sector. 这位“政治新星”曾是奥朗德总统的门生，在奥朗德政府担任经济部长；投身草根运动前是投资银行家；也是提出用激进手段削减公共部门的中间主义者。
It was perfect ammunition for run-off rival Marine Le Pen, who said he was the candidate of the elite, not the novice he said he was. 对于他的竞争对手勒庞来说，这些都是可以攻击的目标。勒庞称他是精英阶层的候选人，而非年轻人的代言人。
But he dodged attempts to label him as another Fran?ois Hollande, creating a profile that resonated among people desperate for something new. 但是马克龙拒绝被贴上“第二个奥朗德”的标签，他创造出的形象让期待改变的民众感到耳目一新。 'There is a very prevalent pessimistic mood in France - in a way, too pessimistic - and he comes with a very optimistic, positive message,' says Marc-Olivier Padis. “现在的法国处处弥漫着消极的情绪，可以说是过度悲观，马克龙似乎带来了十分乐观、正面的讯息，” Marc-Olivier Padis说。 'He's young, full of energy, and he's not explaining what he'll do for France but how people will get opportunities. He's the only one to have this kind of message.' “他很年轻，充满活力，他不是解释他将为法国做些什么，而是向民众解释他们将获得哪些机会。他是唯一传递出这种信息的人。” He was up against Marine Le Pen 因为和勒庞针锋相对 Up against his more optimistic tone, Marine Le Pen's message came across as negative - anti-immigration, anti-EU, anti-system. 与马克龙传达的正面信息相反，勒庞传达出的信息是消极的：反移民、反欧盟、反体制。 Macron campaign rallies featured brightly lit arenas blaring with pop music, says Emily Schultheis, while Marine Le Pen's mass meetings involved protesters throwing bottles and flares, a heavy police presence, dark audience stands and an 'angrier' undercurrent. Emily Schultheis说，马克龙的竞选集会现场，灯光明亮，播放流行音乐，而勒庞的竞选集会现场充满抗议的群众，不时丢瓶子和火把，大批警力把守，人群里仍不乏反对者在扔瓶子丢烟雾弹。黑暗里，除了有站立着观众，还有暗中涌动的愤怒情绪。 The big TV debate on 3 May was an angry affair, with a string of insults hurled by both sides. 5月3日的电视辩论上，双方措辞激愤、火力全开甚至出现一连串人身攻击。 She was a 'grand priestess of fear', a snake-oil merchant from the same extremist background as her father. He was a Socialist puppet, a dangerous tool of global finance who would do whatever Germany's Angela Merkel asked. 马克龙指勒庞是“制造恐惧的女祭司”，是同父亲一样从极端背景中成长起来的兜售骗人玩意儿的商人。勒庞则说马克龙是社会党的傀儡，是金融全球化的危险工具，对德国默多克总理俯首帖耳。 But many were alarmed by the prospect of a potentially destabilising and divisive far-right presidency and saw him as the last obstacle in her way. 但是人们担心，作为极右翼候选人，勒庞当选后会造成社会分裂动荡，而认为马克龙是唯一能够阻止勒庞的人。 Marine Le Pen may have run a highly effective campaign, but her poll ratings have been on the slide for months. She was ahead in the polls last year, nudging 30%, and yet in just two weeks she has been beaten twice by Emmanuel Macron. 勒庞的竞选活动或许是非常高效的，但是民调支持率却连月下降。去年，勒庞的民调支持率一路领先，逼近30%，却在两周之后两次落后于马克龙。 #读译交流# 后台回复 读译会，参与取经号Q群交流 #外刊资源# 后台回复 外刊，获取《经济学人》等原版外刊获得方法 #关注取经号# 扫描 二维码，关注跑得快的取经号（id: JTWest） |
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来自： alayavijnana > 《时事政治》
