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Information technology

Reboot

Indian outsourcing specialists must upgrade their strategies

信息技术

重启

印度专业外包公司必须升级策略

COMPUTERS slow as they age, and before long must be replaced by newer models. Something similar is true of the business models of Indian IT firms. Specialised in running global companies’ outsourcedback-offices, the likes of Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) used to be national champions growing at double-digit rates. Their prospects have dimmed of late［小词活用］; an entire industry built on the back of globalisation is frettingabout［别老worry］the incoming American president. But Donald Trump is merely the latest［越晚越新，课上讲过］threat to their operating systems.

计算机会老化变慢，必定很快就被新款电脑取代。印度IT公司的商业模式也有相似之处。专为全球企业提供外包后台服务的印孚瑟斯（Infosys）、维布络（Wipro）及塔塔咨询服务（TCS）等公司曾是增速高达两位数的国内领军企业，近来却变得前景黯淡。整个行业都以全球化为根基，如今正因美国的新总统而忧心忡忡。但特朗普仅是该产业“操作系统”面对的一个最新威胁而已。

Over three decades, Indian IT has become a $140bn industry built on a simple proposition: rich-country companies could trim［别老decrease］ costs by getting tedious behind-the-scenes IT work done by cheap engineers in India. The Indian firms hoovered up bright graduates—the big three have over 700,000 employees in total—paying them starting salaries of $5,000 or so, a decent local wage. After gaining some experience, tens of thousands were dispatched to client sites in Europe or America, along with a few expensive local staff. The rest ensured their clients’ computer systems kept ticking over［小词活用］ from cosy cubicles in Bangalore, Hyderabad and elsewhere.

在三十多年的时间里，印度IT业已成长为价值1400亿美元的产业。它建立在一个简单的理念之上：富裕国家把单调乏味的后台IT工作外包给印度廉价的工程师完成，以此降低成本。印度公司吸纳大量优秀毕业生——上述三大公司共雇用了70万名员工，起薪约为5000美元，就当地水平而言是不错［别老good］的收入。在获得一定的经验后，其中的数万名员工会被派往客户所在的欧洲或美国等地，配合一些薪金高昂的当地员工工作。其余人则留在班加罗尔、海德拉巴等地舒适的隔间里，确保客户的计算机系统运作正常。

Growth spurts and stalls are nothing new for the trio, the most international of dozens of Indian IT firms (American and European companies such as IBM, Accenture and Capgemini have large Indian presences, too). Their prospects are ultimately tied to the sluggish rich-world economies of their clients: America makes up over half of Indian IT sales, Europe a quarter. Banks and insurance companies, the biggest customers, have been in penny-pinching

［词汇翻译］ mode of late; ditto同上/同前 energy companies struck by falling oil prices.

这三家公司是印度众多IT公司中最国际化的（IBM、埃森哲和凯捷等欧美公司在印度也占有相当大的市场份额），对它们来说，增长加速和受挫都是常事。其前景最终还是与客户所在的富裕世界经济低迷相关联：印度IT业的销售额中，美国贡献［别老用占字］了一半以上，欧洲占四分之一。行业最大客户银行及保险公司最近已开始精打细算，受油价下跌冲击的能源企业也是如此。

But what felt like cyclical softness looks increasingly like it is being compounded by structural decline. Dollar-denominated growth rates have oscillated but clearly trended downwards and are now firmly in the single digits (see chart). Margins of over 20% are coming under pressure, even after a sustained fall in the rupee against the dollar increased the cost advantage of earning in America and paying staff in India.

但是，原本感觉上像是周期性的疲软［词汇翻译］，如今越来越像是受结构性衰退［词汇翻译］的拖累。以美元计算的增长率震荡不断，但呈明显下行趋势，如今已稳稳保持在个位数水平（见图表）。即使卢比兑美元汇率持续下跌，令在美国赚取收入而在印度支付薪酬的公司成本优势提升，20%多的利润率仍然受压。

There is still plenty of the $900bn global IT services budget for them to capture. But some headwinds now look like they will endure. Mr Trump’s swearing-in is the most immediate concern. The incoming president has railed against certain visas for skilled workers, many of which are gobbled up by Indian IT firms to send staff on stints to America. A proposal to hike the minimum salaries to qualify for such schemes from $60,000 to $100,000 would make many postingsuneconomical.

全球9000亿美元的IT服务预算中仍有大量空间供它们争取，但貌似有些阻力会长期存在。特朗普宣誓就职是最紧迫的问题。这位新总统痛斥面向技术劳工签发的某些签证，其中许多被印度IT公司包揽，用以派遣员工赴美短期工作。一项提案要求把申请这类签证的最低工资从六万美元提升至十万美元，这将让许多职位安排变得不经济。

That would mean replacing Indian expats to America with locals, especially if the cap for the number of new visas is lowered from the existing 65,000 a year. Add in higher visa-application fees for large-scale labour importers, and that might trim up to five percentage points from IT companies’ margins, analysts think. Fuzzy talk of an “outsourcing tax” will in any case hardly encourage［视角转换］ IT procurement managers to look overseas.

这意味着美国当地人会取代赴美工作的印度人，特别是如果新签证的限额从目前的每年65,000人再次下调的话。加上大型劳务输入公司面临的签证费用上升，分析师们认为，IT公司的利润率可能会下降多达五个百分点。有关“外包税”的揣测肯定也会令IT采购经理们打消海外计划。

Changes in how clients think about technology is a bigger worry［写作句型］for Indian IT firms. Budgets globally are growing steadily, at about 3% a year reckons Gartner, a research outfit. But an increasing amount of the money is spent on trendy stuff like analytics or the internet of things. Such new “digital” services will rise from a tenth of total IT spending in 2014 to over a third in 2020 according to McKinsey, a consultancy.

客户对技术的看法也在改变，这对印度IT公司来说是更大的忧虑。研究机构高德纳公司（Gartner）认为，在全球范围内，IT预算在稳步增长，每年提升约3%。但有越来越多的资金花在数据分析或物联网这类新潮项目上。据咨询公司麦肯锡的数据，这类新“数字”服务在2014年占IT总支出的十分之一，到2020年时，该比例将上升至超过三分之一。

IT managers at big firms think they can finance the development of snazzy big-data projects and mobile apps by trimming spending in their existing IT infrastructure, for example by replacing their own data centres (which they pay Indian firms to maintain) with cloud storage (which they do not). And some of the tasks which engineers used to do, such as tailoring software for a client, can now be done by machines. It seems that workers in India’s vast code-writing centres are as much at risk of being made obsolescent by automation as those in factories making cars or shoes.

大公司的IT经理们认为可通过减少现有IT基础设施的开支来为新潮的大数据项目及移动应用开发项目提供资金，例如用云存储（没有外包给印度公司维护）取代自有数据中心（外包给印度公司）。而以前工程师们做的一些工作，如为客户定制软件，现在可由机器来完成。印度那些庞大编程中心的员工似乎也面临被自动化淘汰的风险，与制造汽车和鞋子的工厂工人并无二致。

Indian firms want to get in on the new digital action, which they think is less likely to be commoditised. But they specialise in fixing problems cheaply, not driving innovation. Devising a mobile-banking app for millennials, say, is a far cry from［别老different］parsing lines of code for bugs.The IT firms know they need to adapt. “We will not survive if we remain in the constricted space of doing as we are told, depending solely on cost arbitrage,” Vishal Sikka, the boss at Infosys, wrote in a recent letter urging staff to shape up.［别老adapt］ “If we don’t we will be made obsolete by the tidal wave of automation and technology-fuelled transformation that is almost upon us.”

印度公司希望打入这股数字化新潮流，认为相比之下它不大会变得大宗商品化。但它们的专长在于以低成本解决问题，而非推动创新。举例来说，为千禧一代设计移动银行应用跟分析代码查找错误完全是两码事。这些IT公司知道它们需要适应新趋势。“假如我们还局限于听命他人，只依赖成本优势，我们将无法生存。” 印孚瑟斯的老板史维学（Vishal Sikka）在最近一封敦促员工升级的信中写道。“在自动化和科技的推动下，变革浪潮滚滚而来，我们不去适应就会被淘汰。”

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Others have a head start in the race to the sunlit digital uplands. Accenture has digital-services revenue per employee around four times its Indian rivals, points out Vaibhav Dhasmana of Jefferies, a bank. It derives more than a fifth of its revenues from such work. Most Indian firms don’t break out this figure, somewhat tellingly, but it is thought to be in the 10-17% range.

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数字化高地阳光灿烂，在奔往那里的竞赛中，其他人领先一步。杰富瑞银行（Jefferies）的瓦伊巴夫·达斯马纳（Vaibhav Dhasmana）指出，埃森哲员工的数字服务人均销售额约为其印度竞争对手的四倍。该公司有超过五分之一的收入来自这类工作。比较显而易见的是大部分印度公司都达不到这一水平，不过估计它们的占比处于10%到17%的范围之间。

European and American rivals have heftier consulting arms that can shape companies’ spending. They are eager acquirers of companies, often boutiques that give them skills they cannot develop internally. They spend more on research and development, too: 2% of revenues for Accenture, compared with a mere 0.5-1% of revenues at Indian firms. All this reduces profits: Accenture has margins on earnings before interest and tax of around 15%, not much more than half what Indian firms have traditionally secured.

欧美竞争对手拥有更强有力的咨询服务部门，能够影响公司的支出。它们热衷收购，对象往往是一些精品公司，能带来无法内部开发的新技术。它们也在研发上投入更多：埃森哲的投入是其营收的2%，相比之下，印度公司的该比例仅为0.5%到1%。所有这些都令利润下降：埃森哲的息税前利润率约为15%，充其量不过是印度公司传统上稳赚的一半。

The Indian firms are moving in this direction. All have invested in “platforms” they can sell to more than one client—for example, to analyse social media. But by their own admission progress has been limited. Pivoting towards higher-value offerings requires an overhaul of Indian companies’ past models, not a tweak. The focus must now be on the quality, not the quantity, of employees. Hiring has slowed: in the nine months to end-December 2016, Infosys added 5,700 new staff, compared with 17,000 in the same period a year ago. There are fewer junior engineers—able only to carry out the most routine tasks—and more relatively senior staff as a result (see chart). This middle-age bulge in staffers increases staff costs by 5-7%, says Anantha Narayan of Credit Suisse, a bank.

这一切发生时，印孚瑟斯和维布络正在适应新一代的管理者，这些职业经理从公司创始人的手上接管了企业。同时，1月12日，塔塔咨询服务公司备受尊敬的老板陈哲（Natarajan Chandrasekaran）离任，出任母公司董事长。将印度IT业塑造成诱人事业的经济模式正在褪色，而不是完全消失。但和计算机一样，最好在旧机器意外崩溃前就把它换掉。