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Philip Hammond’s cautious budget grimly reflects Britain’s state Growth forecasts have been slashed and Brexit looms, but the government is too weak to do anything but fiddle Print edition | Leaders Nov 25th 2017 THE glass of booze that chancellors of the exchequer may sip while delivering the budget speech is well deserved. High economics, low politics and bad jokes combine in an hour-long monologue before a baying crowd. Philip Hammond, who presented his budget on November 22nd, had it harder than most. The deficit still yawns, voters are sick of austerity and, amid a Conservative civil war, many of Mr Hammond’s own side want rid of him. Impressively, he stuck to mineral water. 11月22日，英国国防大臣哈蒙德公开了他的预算案。赤字久久不散，选民厌恶紧缩，哈蒙德身边的很多自己人都想让他下台。他的日子不好过。 It was a decent speech, focusing on the dire productivity problem that is holding Britain back (see article). It should be enough to save his job, which is just as well, since he is one of the few remaining sensibles in Theresa May’s cabinet. But Mr Hammond’s budget was a bleak reflection of the state Britain is in. Economic-growth forecasts are sharply worse. Money is short. And, although many of the chancellor’s policies point in the right direction, their timid scale spoke of a government too weak to live up to its ambitions. 他的演讲很好，主要关注了正在拖英国后腿的严峻的生产力问题。这场演讲足够保住他的乌纱帽，他也是特蕾莎梅的内阁中为数不多的理智派。但哈蒙德的预算法案无情地表明了如今英国的状态。经济增长预测更加不乐观。两个字：缺钱。而且即便大臣们提出的众多政策方向正确，但却不够大胆，这表明政府能力不足，难以实现政治雄心。 Watered down and on the rocks As Mr Hammond intended, the immediate coverage highlighted a modest tax break for first-time housebuyers. But the real story of the budget was the forecasts for Britain’s future growth. The independent fiscal watchdog expects the economy to grow by 1.5% this year, down from the 2% it predicted in March. By 2020 growth will be as low as 1.3%. This is at a time when forecasts for most rich countries—including, notably, the euro zone—are being revised upwards. And this gloomy picture may even be optimistic. The forecasts are based on the assumption that Britain will continue to enjoy high levels of immigration and remain in the single market, neither of which is likely. And they make no provision for the possibility of a damaging no-deal Brexit, which the government still throws around as a plausible outcome of its talks in Brussels. 哈蒙德在预算法案中表示将给首次购房者减税。预算法案的背后是对英国未来经济增长的悲观预测。独立的财政监测机构预计英国今年经济增长将为1.5%, 低于3月预测的2%，而与此同时大部分富裕国家（主要是欧元区）的预测都在上调。即便如此，这种预测还是可能过于乐观，因为这种预测是基于英国能继续获得大量移民并一直呆在单一市场内，而这是不可能的。而且它还没考虑脱欧净身出户的可能性，通过政府和布鲁塞尔的脱欧谈判来看，这是可能的。 Mr Hammond barely dared to mention Brexit, focusing instead on the shortages of housing and skilled workers, which he correctly identified as central causes of Britain’s productivity problem. But to slay these monsters, he brandished a peashooter. Schools will get an extra £600 ($800) a year for each additional pupil who studies advanced-level maths. More computing teachers will be trained, and distance-learning courses will get more money. His housing plan was more eye-catching, but even an estate agent would describe it as bijou. As well as the giveaway to first-time buyers—which will inflate house prices, but at least improve young people’s bargaining position relative to others—he endorsed a plan for a new corridor of development between Oxford and Cambridge and commissioned a review into whether housebuilders should be made to develop land they are sitting on. Sensible stuff, but hardly enough to meet his target of 300,000 homes a year. 哈蒙德没敢提到脱欧，把重点放在了英国生产力问题的关键成因----房物供给和技术工人不足上。但他同样也没能出台实质性举措。每多一名学习高等数学的学生，学校将每年额外获得600欧元。政府将帮助培训更多的计算机教师，资助远程学习课程的发展。他的住房计划更加夺人眼球，但就算房产中介也认为它起不到什么作用。以及首次购房者得到的优惠----这会推高房价，同时也会改善年轻人的谈判立场----他授权通过了牛津剑桥的一个发展走廊，并开启了一项调查：房产建筑商是否应该被允许开发他们所在之地的土地。这些都有理有据的，但不一定能够达到他每年新增30万住房的目标。 The theme of decent ideas, realised in miniature, went beyond the productivity plans. The needlessly harsh treatment of people applying for universal credit, a welfare benefit, will be softened somewhat. But the cuts to the incomes of the very poorest will not be any less deep. The National Health Service was given just enough money to help it limp on (at the same time, the chancellor allocated £3bn for Brexit preparations, which might surprise people who voted Leave hoping that it would free up more cash for the NHS). Social care for the elderly, the Tories’ main issue during the election in June, received no mention at all. Mr Hammond’s lack of big plans was given away by the abundance of little ones. The budget contained 77 initiatives, as many as George Osborne, his predecessor and a notorious fiddler, ever managed. 这些看似美好的想法实际已经不属于生产力发展计划的范畴。之前英国对那些想要取得通用福利的人实施了不必要的严厉待遇，以后也会减轻。但是最贫穷阶层的收入还是遭到了大幅削减。国民保健制度（NHS）获得的经费仅仅能维持运营（与此同时政府为脱欧预留了30亿欧元的经费，那些投了脱欧票、希望能有更多的钱用到NHS的人可能要大吃一惊）。保守党的主要问题----老年社会福利----在讲话中被忽略。哈蒙德没能给出大的计划，小计划是稀稀拉拉给了一堆。预算案包括77个倡议，跟他的臭名远扬的前任影子大臣奥斯本一个德行。 If the government is to live up to the chancellor’s promise to “build on Britain’s great global success story”, it must think bigger. Yet its precarious position has left it unable to risk upsetting a single voter. A tax on diesel cars will not apply to vans, for fear of annoying small-business owners. The green belt, which holds back house-building like no other policy but is cherished by people in marginal constituencies, was ritually praised. The only people for whom Mr Hammond dared to announce tax rises were foreign tech firms and people with empty second homes. If Britain is to prosper, it will need to make harder choices than this. 如果英国政府想要像大臣说的那样“创造英国的全球神话”，那他必须想得广一点。但它如今已经承受不起任何一个选民的失望。因为害怕惹恼小型业主，针对柴油车的税收不会对货车征收。建设绿化带会遏制房屋建设，但是受到边缘选区的拥护，所以也受到了肯定。哈蒙德敢公开宣布征收税款的对象是外国企业和有第二套房产的人。如果英国想繁荣，它必将做出更艰难的选择。 |
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