|
人工智能（AI）横冲直撞，闯入了商业领域。各种各样的公司都在利用人工智能来预测需求、雇用员工、与客户打交道。2017年，企业在AI方面的并购支出达220亿美元上下，大约是2015年的26倍。咨询公司麦肯锡的内部智库麦肯锡全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）认为，仅仅是将人工智能应用到营销、销售和供应链上，未来20年就能创造2.7万亿美元的经济价值，包括利润和效率。谷歌的老板甚至宣称对人类而言，人工智能比火和电的用处更大。 ARTIFICIAL intelligence (AI) is barging its way into business. As our special report this week explains, firms of all types are harnessing AI to forecast demand, hire workers and deal with customers. In 2017 companies spent around $22bn on AI-related mergers and acquisitions, about 26 times more than in 2015. The McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank within a consultancy, reckons that just applying AI to marketing, sales and supply chains could create economic value, including profits and efficiencies, of $2.7trn over the next 20 years. Google’s boss has gone so far as to declare that AI will do more for humanity than fire or electricity. 如此宏伟的预测既点亮了希望，也带来了焦虑。许多人担心AI摧毁就业岗位的速度会比创造就业机会的速度更快。拥有数据和生成数据存在准入门槛，这可能会导致每个行业中只有少数几家公司占据主导地位。 Such grandiose forecasts kindle anxiety as well as hope. Many fret that AI could destroy jobs faster than it creates them. Barriers to entry from owning and generating data could lead to a handful of dominant firms in every industry. 人们不太熟悉、但同样重要的一个问题是AI将如何改变工作场所。利用AI，管理者可以非常严密地控制他们的员工。亚马逊获得专利的腕带可以追踪仓库工人的手部动作，并通过振动敦促他们提高效率。软件公司Workday研究了大约60个因素来预测哪些员工会离职。创业公司Humanyze销售的智能工牌可以跟踪员工在办公室的动向，显示他们与同事的互动情况。 Less familiar, but just as important, is how AI will transform the workplace. Using AI, managers can gain extraordinary control over their employees. Amazon has patented a wristband that tracks the hand movements of warehouse workers and uses vibrations to nudge them into being more efficient. Workday, a software firm, crunches around 60 factors to predict which employees will leave. Humanyze, a startup, sells smart ID badges that can track employees around the office and reveal how well they interact with colleagues. 工作中的监控并不是什么新鲜事。工厂工人一直都在打卡上下班；老板们也已经能看到无所事事的员工在电脑上干什么。但是有了AI之后，就值得部署无处不在的全面监控了，因为每一个数据都有潜在的价值。很少有法律规定该如何收集工作数据，而且许多员工在签订雇佣合同时都会毫无戒心地同意接受监控。这一切会导致什么结果? Surveillance at work is nothing new. Factory workers have long clocked in and out; bosses can already see what idle workers do on their computers. But AI makes ubiquitous surveillance worthwhile, because every bit of data is potentially valuable. Few laws govern how data are collected at work, and many employees unguardedly consent to surveillance when they sign their employment contract. Where does all this lead? 信任与监视 先从好处说起。AI应该能提高生产率。Humanyze公司将其智能工牌中的数据与员工的日程表和电子邮件信息结合分析，可以获得一些发现，比如办公室的布局是否有利于团队合作。职场即时通讯应用Slack帮助管理者评估员工完成任务的速度。公司不仅能发现员工打瞌睡，还能看到他们何时行为不当。公司还开始用AI来筛查费用报销中的异常，把晚间异常时段的发票标注出来，比那些会算账的活人效率更高。 Trust and telescreens Start with the benefits. AI ought to improve productivity. Humanyze merges data from its badges with employees’ calendars and e-mails to work out, say, whether office layouts favour teamwork. Slack, a workplace messaging app, helps managers assess how quickly employees accomplish tasks. Companies will see when workers are not just dozing off but also misbehaving. They are starting to use AI to screen for anomalies in expense claims, flagging receipts from odd hours of the night more efficiently than a carbon-based beancounter can. 员工也会获益。有赖于计算机视觉的进步，AI可以检查工人是否穿好了安全设备，车间里是否有人受伤害等。有些人会很高兴获得更多有关自己工作的反馈，并乐于知道怎样做更好。创业公司Cogito设计了一款AI增强软件，可以监听客服电话，根据客服的体恤度、解决顾客投诉的速度和能力打出“共情分”。 Employees will gain, too. Thanks to strides in computer vision, AI can check that workers are wearing safety gear and that no one has been harmed on the factory floor. Some will appreciate more feedback on their work and welcome a sense of how to do better. Cogito, a startup, has designed AI-enhanced software that listens to customer-service calls and assigns an “empathy score” based on how compassionate agents are and how fast and how capably they settle complaints. 机器有助于确保加薪和晋升的机会留给那些应得的人。这从招聘就开始了。人往往有偏见，而如果设计得当，算法能比人更公正。软件可以标识出人可能注意不到的模式。Textio是一家利用AI改进岗位描述的创业公司，它发现女性更有可能应征那种谈及“发展”团队而非“管理”团队的工作。算法会发现不同性别和种族间的薪酬差异，以及人类管理者有意无意忽略的性骚扰和种族歧视。 Machines can help ensure that pay rises and promotions go to those who deserve them. That starts with hiring. People often have biases but algorithms, if designed correctly, can be more impartial. Software can flag patterns that people might miss. Textio, a startup that uses AI to improve job descriptions, has found that women are likelier to respond to a job that mentions “developing” a team rather than “managing” one. Algorithms will pick up differences in pay between genders and races, as well as sexual harassment and racism that human managers consciously or unconsciously overlook. 不过人工智能在带来好处的同时也会有许多潜在的缺陷。算法也许难免会受程序员偏见的影响。它们也会产生意想不到的后果。AI或许可以通过上下班路程的长短预测员工是否会辞职，但关注这一点也可能在无意中伤害到经济状况较差的求职者。年长的员工可能比年轻员工手脚慢，如果AI只关注生产率，那他们可能就会丢掉饭碗。 Yet AI’s benefits will come with many potential drawbacks. Algorithms may not be free of the biases of their programmers. They can also have unintended consequences. The length of a commute may predict whether an employee will quit a job, but this focus may inadvertently harm poorer applicants. Older staff might work more slowly than younger ones and could risk losing their positions if all AI looks for is productivity. 而且监控可能会让人感觉身处奥威尔笔下的世界。这可是个敏感的问题——人们已经开始质疑Facebook和其他科技巨头究竟掌握了多少有关他们的私生活内容。公司开始监控员工花多长时间在工间休息上。软件公司Veriato的产品甚至追踪和记录员工在电脑上的一举一动，以此来衡量他们对雇主是否尽心尽力。如今企业不仅可利用AI筛查员工的工作通讯，还能详查他们的社交媒体信息。Slack这个名字就很能说明问题——它是一个缩写，代表“所有对话和信息的可搜索日志”（searchable log of all conversation and knowledge）。 And surveillance may feel Orwellian—a sensitive matter now that people have begun to question how much Facebook and other tech giants know about their private lives. Companies are starting to monitor how much time employees spend on breaks. Veriato, a software firm, goes so far as to track and log every keystroke employees make on their computers in order to gauge how committed they are to their company. Firms can use AI to sift through not just employees’ professional communications but their social-media profiles, too. The clue is in Slack’s name, which stands for “searchable log of all conversation and knowledge”. 追踪追踪器 一些人会比其他人更有底气让雇主不要做得太过头。如果市场需要你的技能，那么你就比那些可被轻易取代的人更可能抵挡住这种趋势。在零售业等低薪行业里领取小时工资的员工处境尤其不妙。这可能会促使力图代表员工利益、寻求制定规范的工会复兴。但即便真的如此，在某些岗位上将只有这样的选择：要么被机器人取代，要么被当机器人对待。 Tracking the trackers Some people are better placed than others to stop employers going too far. If your skills are in demand, you are more likely to be able to resist than if you are easy to replace. Paid-by-the-hour workers in low-wage industries such as retailing will be especially vulnerable. That could fuel a resurgence of labour unions seeking to represent employees’ interests and to set norms. Even then, the choice in some jobs will be between being replaced by a robot or being treated like one. 监管机构和雇主在权衡职场应用AI的利弊时，应采用三大原则来指导这项技术的普及。首先，在可能的情况下，数据应该匿名。例如微软有个产品，可向个人展示他们如何管理自己的工作时间，但只向经理们提供整合后的信息。其次，AI的使用应该是透明的。公司应告知员工正在使用哪些技术收集哪些数据。公司用于雇用、解雇和晋升决策的算法应接受测试，看是否存在偏见或意外后果，而且这应成为常规做法。最后，各国应该允许个人索要自己的数据，不管他们是想就被解雇提出异议的前员工，还是希望向未来雇主展示自己能力的求职者。 As regulators and employers weigh the pros and cons of AI in the workplace, three principles ought to guide its spread. First, data should be anonymised where possible. Microsoft, for example, has a product that shows individuals how they manage their time in the office, but gives managers information only in aggregated form. Second, the use of AI ought to be transparent. Employees should be told what technologies are being used in their workplaces and which data are being gathered. As a matter of routine, algorithms used by firms to hire, fire and promote should be tested for bias and unintended consequences. Last, countries should let individuals request their own data, whether they are ex-workers wishing to contest a dismissal or jobseekers hoping to demonstrate their ability to prospective employers. AI大举进军工作场所，人们需要在隐私和绩效之间权衡取舍。一个更公平、生产率更高的工作场所值得拥有，但如果它束缚了员工，抹杀了人性，就得不偿失了。要在两者间取得平衡需要深思熟虑，需要雇主和雇员都有调适的意愿，还需要大量的人性关怀。 The march of AI into the workplace calls for trade-offs between privacy and performance. A fairer, more productive workforce is a prize worth having, but not if it shackles and dehumanises employees. Striking a balance will require thought, a willingness for both employers and employees to adapt, and a strong dose of humanity. ■ |
|
|
