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回到根本:什么是公司内在价值

2018-09-07  新程乐跑

原文来自ValueWalk网站,作者不详。文章摘取了巴菲特“股东手册”中对账面价值和内在价值的解释,简单又深刻。简而言之:1)内在价值是个估计值,受利率和预测影响 2)账面价值和内在价值没什么关系。

Today, I provide another excerpt from the same Owner's Manual in which Buffett explains the principles that he and Munger use to calculate Intrinsic Value. It's a must read for all investors.

今天,我从“股东手册”中摘录另一段关于如何计算公司内在价值的文章,股东手册是巴菲特和芒格解释他们公司运营和投资的基本原则的书。这是所有投资者的必读本。

Here's another excerpt from Buffett's Owner's Manual:

以下是股东手册的摘录:

Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.

展开剩余89%

现在让我们关注我前面提到的一个术语,你们在未来的年度报告中也会遇到。

Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.

内在价值是一个非常重要的概念,它提供了唯一的逻辑方法来评估投资和公司的相对吸引力。内在价值可以简单的定义成:公司在剩余的生命周期里可以取出的现金的折现值。

The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value.

然而,内在价值的计算并不那么简单。如我们的定义所示,内在价值是一个估计值而不是一个精确的数字。而且,如果利率变动或未来现金流的预测被修改了,这个估计值也必须随之改变。此外,即使两个人看到同样的事实— 包括芒格和我—也会不可避免地得出略有不同的内在价值数值。这也是我们从来不给出内在价值的估计的一个原因。

What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.

然而,我们的年报提供了我们自己用来计算这个值的事实数据。

Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values.

与此同时,我们定期报告我们的每股账面价值,这是一个容易计算的数字,虽然作用有限。其局限性并不来自于我们持有的有价证券是以他们的现有价格记账的缘故。账面价值的缺陷与我们控制的公司有关,这些公司在我们账面体现的价值和他们的内在价值可能相去甚远。

The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.

差异可以发生在任一方向上。例如,在1964年,我们可以确切的说伯克希尔的每股账面价值为19.46美元。然而,这个数字大大夸大了公司的内在价值,因为公司的所有资源被维系在一个利润不佳的纺织品业务上。我们的纺织品资产既没有持续经营能力,也没有等于其账面价值的清算价值。然而今天,伯克希尔的情况完全逆转了:现在,我们的账面价值远远低于伯克希尔的内在价值,这是真的,因为我们控制的很多业务的价值远远高于其账面价值。

Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire’s book-value figures because they today serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year’s change in intrinsic value.

虽然我们的账面价值不足以说明故事全部,我们给你伯克希尔的账面价值数字,因为他们虽然粗略,而且明显低估太多,但却可以作为跟踪伯克希尔内在价值的一个指标。换句话说,任何一年的账面价值的百分比变化可能很接近该年的内在价值的变化。

You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

您可以通过类比大学教育投资来了解账面价值和内在价值之间的差异。把教育的成本视为“账面价值”。如果这个成本是准确的,它应该包括学生放弃的收入,因为他选择了大学而不是工作。

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

在这个练习里面,我们将忽视教育的带来的重要的非经济效益,只是严格的关注其经济价值。首先,我们必须估计一个毕业生在其一生中将获得的收入,并从该数字中减去如果他没有接受教育可能获得的收入的估计。这给我们一个额外的收入数字,然后必须以适当的利率折现,算回到毕业日。计算得到的结果等于教育的内在经济价值。

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

有一些毕业生会发现,他们的教育的账面价值超过其内在价值,这意味着有人支付了教育成本,但没有得到他的钱的价值。在其他情况下,教育的内在价值将远远超过其账面价值,这证明资本被聪明地投资了。不管哪种情况,清楚的是,账面价值是作为内在价值的指标是毫无意义的。

愉悦资本是新一代VC基金,由刘二海、李潇、戴汨创立。我们是创始人也是投资经理。

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