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通常情况下，我们最害怕做的事情，反而有可能是我们最需要做的。Tim Ferriss是一位早期科技投资者、畅销书作家和播客（podcaster）。他通过TED演讲告诉大家，做事之前预想最坏的结果，三思而后行，可以帮助我们掌控那些自认为做不到的事情。 中英全文（来自网络） So, this happy pic of me was taken in 1999. I was a senior in college, and it was right after a dance practice. I was really, really happy. And I remember exactly where I was about a week and a half later. I was sitting in the back of my used minivan in a campus parking lot, when I decided I was going to commit suicide. I went from deciding to full-blown planning very quickly. And I came this close to the edge of the precipice. It's the closest I've ever come. And the only reason I took my finger off the trigger was thanks to a few lucky coincidences. And after the fact, that's what scared me the most: the element of chance. 我这张快乐的照片拍摄于1999年。当年我大四，拍摄于舞蹈练习之后。我当时非常开心。我清楚地记得在一周半之后，我坐在我旧的小货车后座，在校园停车场，当时我决定我要自杀。我很快下定决心并有了周全的计划。然而我悬崖勒马。死亡近在咫尺。我未扣动扳机的唯一原因是一些幸运的巧合。在此之后，我意识到真正让我恐惧的是机会。 So I became very methodical about testing different ways that I could manage my ups and downs, which has proven to be a good investment. (Laughs) Many normal people might have, say, six to 10 major depressive episodes in their lives. I have bipolar depression. It runs in my family. I've had 50-plus at this point, and I've learned a lot. I've had a lot of at-bats, many rounds in the ring with darkness, taking good notes. So I thought rather than get up and give any type of recipe for success or highlight reel, I would share my recipe for avoiding self-destruction, and certainly self-paralysis. 因此，我开始井然有序地尝试不同方式来控制我生活的跌宕起伏，现在看来这是个不错的投资。大部分普通人一生中会有6-10次较为严重的抑郁阶段。我有躁郁症，是我家的遗传病。我大概已经有50多次，我学到了很多。我内心有很多蝙蝠，它们在黑暗中轮回着飞行，寻找着出口。因此我认为与其给大家任何成功心灵鸡汤或者经典语录，不如分享如何避免自我毁灭的秘诀，与避免自我麻痹的秘方。 And the tool I've found which has proven to be the most reliable safety net for emotional free fall is actually the same tool that has helped me to make my best business decisions. But that is secondary. And it is ... stoicism. That sounds boring. 我所找到的，并被证实为最可靠安全的情绪安全网，也正是我用来做出最佳商业决定的工具。但是这是次要的。它就是斯多葛学派。听起来很无聊。 You might think of Spock, or it might conjure and image like this a cow standing in the rain. It's not sad. It's not particularly happy. It's just an impassive creature taking whatever life sends its way. 你也许会想到斯波克，或者会幻想到这样的画面：一头站在雨中的牛。它不悲伤，也并非快乐。它不过是一个逆来顺受的无动于衷的生物。 You might not think of the ultimate competitor, say, Bill Belichick, head coach of the New England Patriots, who has the all-time NFL record for Super Bowl titles. And stoicism has spread like wildfire in the top of the NFL ranks as a means of mental toughness training in the last few years. You might not think of the Founding Fathers -- Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, George Washington to name but three students of stoicism. George Washington actually had a play about a Stoic -- this was 'Cato, a Tragedy' -- performed for his troops at Valley Forge to keep them motivated. 你也许不会想到与其相反的人，比如比尔·贝利奇克，新英格兰爱国者队主教练，他有NFL历史上最多的超级碗冠军。斯多葛学派在NFL排行榜榜首中像野火一样蔓延，作为近几年来训练心智的手段。你也许想不到我们国家的奠基人，托马斯·杰斐逊、约翰·亚当斯、乔治·华盛顿他们都是斯多葛学派的信奉者。事实上，乔治·华盛顿有一部有关于斯多葛学派的戏剧这就《卡托，一个悲剧》曾鼓励他部队在福吉谷时的军心。 So why would people of action focus so much on an ancient philosophy? This seems very academic. I would encourage you to think about stoicism a little bit differently, as an operating system for thriving in high-stress environments, for making better decisions. And it all started here, kind of, on a porch. 为什么人们会如此在乎一个古老的哲学？这似乎非常学术。我建议从另一个角度看待斯多葛学派，这是一个在高压环境中成功的机制，做出更好的选择。所有的一切似乎都源于一个门廊。 So around 300 BC in Athens, someone named Zeno of Citium taught many lectures walking around a painted porch, a 'stoa.' That later became 'stoicism.' And in the Greco-Roman world, people used stoicism as a comprehensive system for doing many, many things. But for our purposes, chief among them was training yourself to separate what you can control from what you cannot control, and then doing exercises to focus exclusively on the former. This decreases emotional reactivity, which can be a superpower. 在公元前300年左右的雅典，一位叫“季蒂昂的芝诺”的导师教授很多课程经常游走在涂满绘画的门廊，即“拱柱”。这之后就成为“斯多葛学派”。而在希腊罗马世界，人们把斯多葛学派作为一个全面的系统能解决很多事情。于我们而言，最主要的目的是训练我们自己将可控和不可控的事情分开，然后训练如何专注于于前者。这将降低情绪的反应力，这将成为一种超能力。 Conversely, let's say you're a quarterback. You miss a pass. You get furious with yourself. That could cost you a game. If you're a CEO, and you fly off the handle at a very valued employee because of a minor infraction, that could cost you the employee. If you're a college student who, say, is in a downward spiral, and you feel helpless and hopeless, unabated, that could cost you your life. So the stakes are very, very high. 相反，假设你是四分卫，你没有接到一个传球，对自己生气。这会让你输掉比赛。如果你是一个CEO，仅因为一个小错误对一位极有价值的员工大发雷霆，你可能会失去一个员工。如果你是一个大学生，你处在低潮期，你觉得无助和无望，这可能让你失去生命。所以赌注还是非常高的。 And there are many tools in the toolkit to get you there. I'm going to focus on one that completely changed my life in 2004. It found me then because of two things: a very close friend, young guy, my age, died of pancreatic cancer unexpectedly, and then my girlfriend, who I thought I was going to marry, walked out. She'd had enough, and she didn't give me a Dear John letter, but she did give me this, a Dear John plaque. 工具箱里有很多工具能帮到你。我会着重分享一个在2004年完全改变我人生的工具。两件事情让我深受触动：一个与我年龄相仿的男性挚友意外死于胰腺癌，之后是我以为是真命天女的女朋友离我而去。她受够了，她没有给我一封分手信，但她却送我了一个分手板牌。 I'm not making this up. I've kept it. 'Business hours are over at five o'clock.' She gave this to me to put on my desk for personal health, because at the time, I was working on my first real business. I had no idea what I was doing. I was working 14-plus hour days, seven days a week. I was using stimulants to get going. I was using depressants to wind down and go to sleep. It was a disaster. I felt completely trapped. I bought a book on simplicity to try to find answers. 这不是我编的，我还留着它。“工作时间在5点结束。”出于对我健康的关心，她把这个放在我的桌上，因为当时我正投入于我的第一个事业。我不明白当时我在干嘛，只知道每天工作14个小时以上，每周7天。我用兴奋剂来刺激自己工作，用镇抑剂来放松和助眠。这是一场灾难。我彻底沦陷了。我买了关于简朴生活的书来寻找答案。 And I did find a quote that made a big difference in my life, which was, 'We suffer more often in imagination than in reality,' by Seneca the Younger, who was a famous Stoic writer. That took me to his letters, which took me to the exercise, 'premeditatio malorum,' which means the pre-meditation of evils. In simple terms, this is visualizing the worst-case scenarios, in detail, that you fear, preventing you from taking action, so that you can take action to overcome that paralysis. My problem was monkey mind -- super loud, very incessant. Just thinking my way through problems doesn't work. I needed to capture my thoughts on paper. So I created a written exercise that I called 'fear-setting,' like goal-setting, for myself. It consists of three pages. Super simple. 我的确找到一个改变我人生的警句，““折磨我们的往往是想像，而不是真实””出自塞内卡，他是著名的斯多葛学派作家。这引领我读他的书信，让我开始练习，'premeditatiomalorum,'意思是在最坏情况来临前提前预想。简而言之，预想最坏的情景及你所恐惧的细节，防止你采取任何行动，因此你可以采取行动，来摆脱恐惧。我当时头脑一片混乱，充满着连续不断嘈杂的声音。通过思考我的问题没有什么用处。我需要把想法都写在纸上。因此我设计了一个写作练习我称之为“恐惧设置”，就像目标设置一样。它由3页纸组成。非常简单。 The first page is right here. 'What if I ...?' This is whatever you fear, whatever is causing you anxiety, whatever you're putting off. It could be asking someone out, ending a relationship, asking for a promotion, quitting a job, starting a company. It could be anything. For me, it was taking my first vacation in four years and stepping away from my business for a month to go to London, where I could stay in a friend's room for free, to either remove myself as a bottleneck in the business or shut it down. 第一页是这样的。“如果我...?”这是你所恐惧的东西，让你焦虑的东西，被拖延的东西。它可能是邀约某人，结束一段关系，提出升职，辞职或者创业。它可以是任何事情。与我而言，它是在工作4年后第一次休假我离开公司去伦敦休息一个月，我可以免费住在伦敦朋友的房间里，让我从生意的瓶颈中解放自己或者结束它。 In the first column, 'Define,' you're writing down all of the worst things you can imagine happening if you take that step. You want 10 to 20. I won't go through all of them, but I'll give you two examples. One was, I'll go to London, it'll be rainy, I'll get depressed, the whole thing will be a huge waste of time. Number two, I'll miss a letter from the IRS, and I'll get audited or raided or shut down or some such. 在第一栏“定义”中，你写下所有你预想中会发生的最坏的事情如果你采取这一步行动。你需要写下10到20个。我不会每一个都详述，但我举两个例子。一个是如果我去伦敦，伦敦在下雨的话，我会很沮丧。整个旅程就是浪费时间。第二个是我错过了美国国税局的信，我将被查税或者被抨击或者关闭等。 And then you go to the 'Prevent' column. In that column, you write down the answer to: What could I do to prevent each of these bullets from happening, or, at the very least, decrease the likelihood even a little bit? So for getting depressed in London, I could take a portable blue light with me and use it for 15 minutes in the morning. I knew that helped stave off depressive episodes. For the IRS bit, I could change the mailing address on file with the IRS so the paperwork would go to my accountant instead of to my UPS address. Easy-peasy. 这时可以使用“预防”一栏。在这一栏中，你写下答案：我能做什么来预防这些事情发生，或者至少降低发生的可能性？因此当我在伦敦觉得沮丧时，我可以随身携带便携式蓝光在早上使用15分钟。我知道这会帮助我摆脱抑郁。对于国税局，我可以修改在国税局的邮寄地址，因此文件到我的会计手上而不是我的UPS地址。超级简单。 Then we go to 'Repair.' So if the worst-case scenarios happen, what could you do to repair the damage even a little bit, or who could you ask for help? So in the first case, London, well, I could fork over some money, fly to Spain, get some sun -- undo the damage, if I got into a funk. In the case of missing a letter from the IRS, I could call a friend who is a lawyer or ask, say, a professor of law what they would recommend, who I should talk to, how had people handled this in the past. So one question to keep in mind as you're doing this first page is: Has anyone else in the history of time less intelligent or less driven figured this out? Chances are, the answer is 'Yes.' 接下来我们到“修复”一栏。如果最坏的情况发生，你能做什么来减轻损失，或者你能向谁寻求帮助？因此第一个伦敦的例子，我会多花点钱，去西班牙享受阳光，来弥补损失，如果我陷入恐慌中。如果我错过美国国税局的来件，我可以给当律师的朋友打电话或者咨询法学教授他们的意见，我将向他们请教过去类似的情况是如何处理的。在填写第一页时请谨记一个问题：过去是否有人不够聪明或者缺乏主动性来弄清楚这些问题吗？答案是“是的”。 The second page is simple: What might be the benefits of an attempt or a partial success? You can see we're playing up the fears and really taking a conservative look at the upside. So if you attempted whatever you're considering, might you build confidence, develop skills, emotionally, financially, otherwise? What might be the benefits of, say, a base hit? Spend 10 to 15 minutes on this. 第二页很简单：一次尝试或部分成功会带来哪些好处？你可以看到我们直面恐惧同时保持谨慎。因此当你尝试你想做的事情的时候，也许你可以建立自信，提高情绪、经济等方面的技能。一个安打能带来哪些好处？花10到15分钟时间思考下。 Page three. This might be the most important, so don't skip it: 'The Cost of Inaction.' Humans are very good at considering what might go wrong if we try something new, say, ask for a raise. What we don't often consider is the atrocious cost of the status quo -- not changing anything. So you should ask yourself, if I avoid this action or decision and actions and decisions like it, what might my life look like in, say, six months, 12 months, three years? Any further out, it starts to seem intangible. And really get detailed -- again, emotionally, financially, physically, whatever. 第三页。这很可能是最重要的，不要跳过。“不行动的代价”。人类非常善于设想可能出错的事情如果我们尝试新的事情，例如加薪。我们通常忽视维持现状所付出的代价什么都不改变。因此你要扪心自问，如果我错过这次行动或决定以及类似的行动和决定，6个月，12个月，3年后我的生活会是什么样子？刚开始，这些变化非常细微。但从情感、经济、身体等方面再次仔细地思考。 And when I did this, it painted a terrifying picture. I was self-medicating, my business was going to implode at any moment at all times, if I didn't step away. My relationships were fraying or failing. And I realized that inaction was no longer an option for me. 当我这样做的时候，它展示一幅可怕的画面。我当时是自我疗愈，我的生意随时都将结束如果我不离开。我的人际关系也在日益递减。我意识到不采取行动不再是我的一个选择。 Those are the three pages. That's it. That's fear-setting. And after this, I realized that on a scale of one to 10, one being minimal impact, 10 being maximal impact, if I took the trip, I was risking a one to three of temporary and reversible pain for an eight to 10 of positive, life-changing impact that could be a semi-permanent. So I took the trip. None of the disasters came to pass. There were some hiccups, sure. I was able to extricate myself from the business. I ended up extending that trip for a year and a half around the world, and that became the basis for my first book, that leads me here today. 这就是恐惧设置的三页纸。之后，我意识到用1到10来评测，1是最小的影响，10是最大的影响，如果我踏上旅途，我将面对1到3个短暂的可解决的苦恼，还有8到10个能深刻改变我生活的积极影响。因此我选择了旅程。然而我预想的灾难一个也没发生。当然会有一些小问题。我能将自己从生意中抽离出来。最后我延长了那个环球旅行，花了一年半的时间，这也是我第一本书的素材来源，最后让我今天站在了这里。 And I can trace all of my biggest wins and all of my biggest disasters averted back to doing fear-setting at least once a quarter. It's not a panacea. You'll find that some of your fears are very well-founded. 回顾我取得赢得的最大成就和避免的巨大灾难都是因为至少每一季度我都做一次恐惧设置。它并非灵丹妙药。你会发现有些恐惧货真价实。 But you shouldn't conclude that without first putting them under a microscope. And it doesn't make all the hard times, the hard choices, easy, but it can make a lot of them easier. 但是你不能在仔细检查前，做出结论。它不会让每一次困难时期和艰难的选择轻而易举，但是确实会简单很多。 I'd like to close with a profile of one of my favorite modern-day Stoics. This is Jerzy Gregorek. He is a four-time world champion in Olympic weightlifting, political refugee, published poet, 62 years old. He can still kick my ass and probably most asses in this room. He's an impressive guy. 我想以一位我所钟爱的当代斯多葛学派人物来结束。他是杰克西·格雷戈里克。他4次荣获奥林匹克举重项目冠军，政治难民，出版诗人，62岁。他能让我甚至在座的大部分人都甘拜下风。他令人折服。 I spent a lot of time on his stoa, his porch, asking life and training advice. He was part of the Solidarity in Poland, which was a nonviolent movement for social change that was violently suppressed by the government. He lost his career as a firefighter. Then his mentor, a priest, was kidnapped, tortured, killed and thrown into a river. He was then threatened. He and his wife had to flee Poland, bounce from country to country until they landed in the US with next to nothing, sleeping on floors. 我花了很多时间徘徊在他的拱柱向他请教有关生活和训练的建议。他曾是波兰团结工会的一员，这是一个推进社会改革的非暴力运动，遭到了政府的暴力镇压。为此他断送了做为消防员的职业生涯。他的导师，一个牧师被绑架、折磨并被杀害后抛尸河中。他也遭到了威胁。他和妻子逃离波兰后，辗转于不同国家之间直到身无分文地到达美国，睡在地上。 He now lives in Woodside, California, in a very nice place, and of the 10,000-plus people I've met in my life, I would put him in the top 10, in terms of success and happiness. And there's a punchline coming, so pay attention. I sent him a text a few weeks ago, asking him: Had he ever read any Stoic philosophy? And he replied with two pages of text. This is very unlike him. He is a terse dude. 他现在住在加州伍德赛德一个很美的地方，在我生命中遇到的10000多个人中，我将他列为前10，就成功和幸福而言。大家注意，重点来了。几周前我给他发了一个短信，我问他：“你曾读过任何有关斯多葛学派思想的书吗？”他用了2页的短信回复我。这很不像他。他是个言简意赅的人。 And not only was he familiar with stoicism, but he pointed out, for all of his most important decisions, his inflection points, when he stood up for his principles and ethics, how he had used stoicism and something akin to fear-setting, which blew my mind. 他不仅熟知斯多葛学派，他还指出，他所有重要的决定，他的人生转折点，当他捍卫自己的原则和遵循道德时，他时如何用斯多葛学派以及类似恐惧设定的方法，这令我感到震惊。 And he closed with two things. Number one: he couldn't imagine any life more beautiful than that of a Stoic. And the last was his mantra, which he applies to everything, and you can apply to everything: 他总结了两点。第一：他无法想象生活中会有比拥有斯多葛学派更美好的生活。最后一个是他可以应用于任何事情的格言，你也可以用于任何事物： 'Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.' “简单选择，痛苦生活。痛苦选择，简单生活。“ The hard choices -- what we most fear doing, asking, saying -- these are very often exactly what we most need to do. And the biggest challenges and problems we face will never be solved with comfortable conversations, whether it's in your own head or with other people. 困难的选择，我们最害怕去做的、问的、说的，这些有可能正是我们最需要做的。我们面对的最大挑战和困难是永远不能通过一个轻松的谈话就能解决，不管是你自我思考还是和别人探讨。 So I encourage you to ask yourselves: Where in your lives right now might defining your fears be more important than defining your goals? Keeping in mind all the while, the words of Seneca: 'We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.' 因此我鼓励你问自己：你现在处在你人生中的哪个阶段也许会让你看清恐惧而不是目标？请将塞內卡的话铭记在心：“折磨我们的往往是想像，而不是真实。” Thank you very much. 谢谢。 |
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