pegcap: 伯克希尔股东大会问答注释

learnmachine 2019-03-21

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今年有空，5月要奥马哈伯克希尔股东大会这个热闹终于可以去凑一下。因为巴菲特致股东的信之前看过了。所以我打算去之前给自己立的目标是去之前把历年来大会的问答都先看一遍。

网上的资料很多.

文字版在 http:///transcripts

视频版在 https://buffett./annual-meetings/

先挑了1999年的开始看, 因为我想看看20年前巴菲特是怎么想的。什么变了，什么没变。

没想到这第一篇就赚到。极其有料，又把他的价值投资体系和盘托出，让人一边读一边大呼过瘾。

我对大会问答中，巴菲特对如何正确地训练自己成为一个专业投资人的回答，做了一个提炼。一些注释记录如下。(不一定按照提问先后顺序)

总的来说，投资没有捷径可走。先通过大量的阅读去初筛。找到感兴趣的目标，然后像一个记者一样刨根问底式的细致调查所有可以找到的资料。最后写成报告，形成估值。再在新信息来了时不断比较修正。

我曾经在女儿学校图书馆里看到一副海报。上面醒目的写着三个单词: “READ. READ. READ.” 结合中美两地教育比较，一个显著的差异是美国把阅读做为一个专门的能力培养。在投资上，大量的阅读是提高自己能力圈的唯一途径。

在下午问题16.中, 巴菲特提及他如何建立期自己对保险行业的能力圈.” …I guess I took one course in school on insurance. I don’tremember a thing from it…. I never really had any background in insurance …myown education about insurance came from just reading lots of, lots of reports.I mean, I would say that if I started the day fresh and I didn’t know anythingabout the insurance industry to speak of, and I wanted to develop someexpertise, I would probably read the reports of every property-casualty companyaround. And I would go back some time and I would read — I would probably getthe best manuals and look at them. I would just do a lot of reading….”

在下午问题31芒格说了他的栅格理论 “I think both of us learned more from the great business magazines…through issue after issueafter issue…if you get the mental habit of relating what you’re reading to thebasic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated, you graduallyaccumulate some wisdom about investing. I don’t think you can get to be areally good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount ofreading…”

接着巴菲特提出了经典的新闻记者式研究方法。”pick out something, getlots of annual reports. …, get all the magazine articles that have been writtenon it — on those companies for five or 10 years…. Just sort of immerse yourselfas if you were either going to work for the company, or they’d hired you as theCEO, or you’re going to buy the whole business…Essentially, you’re being areporter.”

阅读什么范围，巴菲特也做了回答。上午问题16与下午问题16 均提到: “Start with the As”. – 没捷径，从头开始翻. ”…it’smildly laborious, but it’s also a lot of fun”. 不过小资金有个优势，可以从小公司开始翻，因为有的规模太小，大资金参与不了。大公司都是从小公司长大的。不过，随着各种程序化的screener, 现在要比过去更难了，只是靠一些指标筛没有用。还是要真正明白生意。

当完成了调查，写完了报告，心中就大致有了一个估值。不是按这个估值去买，而是用这个估值去横向，纵向比较。上午问题11里，他说 “that doesn’t mean we would pay that figure once we use that discount number. But we would use that to establish comparability across investment alternatives...we wouldn’t pay that number after we discounted it back. We would look for appropriate discounts from that figure...'

尤其是有个新信息后的纵向比较，巴菲特在下午问题29说到一定要时不时回去跟踪，尤其是那些事后发展和自己估值出入很大的。”postmortems are good“人不愿意承认自己的错误。这是人性。

投资一定要独立思考，而不是趋炎附势别人。在下午问题15，巴菲特提到自己当时研究完GEICO给当时最著名的研究机构推荐这个股票。“…I thought I’d discovered this wonderful thing and I’d see what these great investment housesthat specialized in insurance stocks said. And they said I didn’t know what Iwas talking about….”

最后，投资是个独孤的旅程，“…you can’t look around forpeople to agree with you. You can’t look around for people to even know whatyou’re talking about. You know, you have to think for yourself. And if you do,you’ll find things.”。

其它有启发的回答也很多。列在下面。

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