【顶级期刊速递】American Economic Review/AER 2020年第9期目录摘要

    《American Economic Review》杂志是经济学国际排名第1的期刊，影响因子为4.026。本文我们带来该杂志最新一期的10篇优秀文章的摘要和简要分析。《美国经济评论》(The American Economic Review, AER)1911年创刊，是美国最重要、影响最大的经济理论刊物，由美国经济学会(American Economic Association,  AEA)主办。

宗旨是使读者能了解掌握经济思想和重大经济事件的发展进程。研究内容涉及经济理论、应用经济学和经济政策的各个领域。重点论题随经济学界关注的问题而变化。在美国经济学会三大期刊中偏重于刊登前沿理论研究成果，其所刊载文章浅显易懂，但必须具有相当新颖的观点。

American Economic Review

Volume 110, Issue 9 /September 2020

1. HouseholdDebt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency DebtCrisis

EmilVerner, Győző Gyöngyösi

Weexamine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens byexploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt duringHungary's late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causeshigher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to aworse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negativespillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. Theestimates translate into an output multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67.The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currencydebt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets.

2. RichPickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in Household Wealth

LaurentBach, Laurent E. Calvet and Paolo Sodini

Weinvestigate wealth returns on an administrative panel containing thedisaggregated balance sheets of Swedish residents. The expected return onhousehold net wealth is strongly persistent, determined primarily by systematicrisk, and increasing in net worth, exceeding the risk-free rate by the size ofthe equity premium for households in the top 0.01 percent. Idiosyncratic riskis transitory but generates substantial long-term dispersion in returns in topbrackets. Systematic and idiosyncratic risk both drive the cross-sectionaldistribution of the geometric average return over a generation. Furthermore,wealth returns explain most of the historical increase in top wealth shares.

3. Overreactionin Macroeconomic Expectations

PedroBordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma and Andrei Shleifer

Westudy the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomicand financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko(2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions.We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, whileconsensus forecasts underreact relative to full-information rationalexpectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectationsversion of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimationindicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnosticoverreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across differentseries, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained inother settings.

4.Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models

Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador

Weestablish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can beself-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debtaccumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in theEaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Twonecessary conditions for the multiplicity are (i) the government is moreimpatient than foreign creditors, and (ii) there are deadweight losses from default.The multiplicity is dynamic and stems from the self-fulfilling beliefs of howfuture creditors will price bonds; long maturity bonds are therefore a crucialcomponent of the multiplicity. We introduce a third party with deep pockets todiscuss the policy implications of this source of multiplicity and identify thepotentially perverse consequences of traditional 'lender of lastresort' policies.

5.Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data

Charles I. Jones, Christopher Tonetti

Datais nonrival: a person's location history, medical records, and driving data canbe used by many firms simultaneously. Nonrivalry leads to increasing returns.As a result, there may be social gains to data being used broadly across firms,even in the presence of privacy considerations. Fearing creative destruction,firms may choose to hoard their data, leading to the inefficient use ofnonrival data. Giving data property rights to consumers can generateallocations that are close to optimal. Consumers balance their concerns forprivacy against the economic gains that come from selling data broadly.

6.An Estimated Structural Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior

JohnBailey Jones, Sangeeta Pratap

Usinga rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence onentrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facinguninsured risks and financial constraints. Farmers derive nonpecuniary benefitsfrom operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimumdistance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financialfactors and nonpecuniary benefits are of first-order importance. Collateralconstraints and liquidity restrictions inhibit borrowing and the accumulationof capital, especially among high-productivity firms seeking to expand. Thenonpecuniary benefits to farming are large and keep small, low-productivityfarms in business. Although farmers are risk averse, eliminating uninsuredproduction risk has only modest effects on capital and output.

7.Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal ReserveForward Guidance

KurtG. Lunsford

Ishow that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) forwardguidance language shapes the private sector's responses to monetary policy statements.From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance abouteconomic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate pathcaused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemploymentrate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidanceabout policy inclinations, and a decrease in the expected federal funds ratepath had the opposite effects. These results suggest that forward guidance thatemphasizes economic outlook risks causes stronger information effects thanforward guidance that emphasizes policy inclinations.

8.Job Matching under Constraints

Fuhito Kojima, Ning Sun and Ning Neil Yu

Studyingjob matching in a Kelso-Crawford framework, we consider arbitrary constraintsimposed on sets of doctors that a hospital can hire. We characterize allconstraints that preserve the substitutes condition (for all revenue functionsthat satisfy the substitutes condition), a critical condition on hospitals'revenue functions for well-behaved competitive equilibria. A constraintpreserves the substitutes condition if and only if it is a 'generalizedinterval constraint,' which specifies the minimum and maximum numbers ofhired doctors, forces some hires, and forbids others. Additionally,'generalized polyhedral constraints' are precisely those thatpreserve the substitutes condition for all 'group separable' revenuefunctions.

9.Ultimatum Bargaining with Rational Inattention

DoronRavid

Aseller bargains with a rationally inattentive buyer (Sims 2003) over a good ofrandom quality. After observing quality, the seller makes a take-it-or-leave-itoffer. The buyer pays attention to the seller's product and offer at a costproportional to expected entropy reduction. Because attention is free off-path,multiple equilibria emerge, many of which are efficient. A trembling-hand-likerefinement (Selten 1975) rules out efficiency, delivering complete disagreementwhen attention is expensive and a unique equilibrium with trade when attentionis cheap. In this equilibrium, the buyer overpays for low-quality goods,underpays for high-quality goods, and earns a strictly positive payoff.

10.Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Clémentde Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Linearregressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimatetreatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the averagetreatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may benegative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may forinstance be negative while all the ATEs are positive. We propose anotherestimator that solves this issue. In the two applications we revisit, it issignificantly different from the linear regression estimator.

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编辑 | 何珽鋆

初审 | 沈梦岚

终审 | 张   帆

    云山珠水经济学会是由云山珠水地区（广州）十位志同道合的经济学博士组成的团队发起，于2010年10月16日（重阳节）在白云山摩星岭成立。经济学会在经济思想交融之中，跟踪与分享产业经济、发展经济、金融投资和国际经济等方向的前沿信息，把握经世济民的第一手资讯，服务社会。欢迎各界学友赐稿，共享知识盛宴！