May Payrolls Soar By 339K Blowing Away Highest Estimate Even As People Employed Actually Tumble By 310K

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May Payrolls Soar By 339K Blowing Away Highest Estimate Even As People Employed Actually Tumble By 310K

With consensus expecting a modest payroll drop from 291K to 195K, the whisper number coming in  alittle higher at 225K and Goldman's trading desk nfp matrix as follows: "a print sub 100k likely hits the tape by ~100bps and a print north of 375k hits the tape by 25 – 50bps", literally nobody was expecting a print above 252K which was the highest forecast among economists, moments ago the BLS reported yet another blowout stunner: according to Biden's Dept of Labor, in May the US added a whopping 339K jobs, almost double the median estimate and well above the highest forecast.

Not only was this a 4 sigma beat to expectations...

... but it was the 12th beat of expectations in the past 13 months.

And yet, while the Establishment survey was a blowout beat and the strongest print since January, the Household survey unexpectedly tumbled by the most since April 22 as it plunged by 310K jobs...

... pushing the divergence between the two series back to near record wides...

... and resulting in a 0.2% jump in the Unemployment rate which rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.

Developing

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/02/2023 - 08:41