Behind Today's Stellar Jobs Print: It Was Literally ALL Part-Time Jobs (And Illegals)

人权的工作印刷品背后：实际上是出色的兼职工作（而且是非法的）

首先要做的事情是：与过去两个月的 一月 和 二月 就业报告不同，一月和二月的就业报告都受到了可笑的抨击，而目标是通过一个可怕的数字作为强劲的数字，而三月的就业报告并没有发生彻底的灾难。

可以肯定的是，从表面上看，3月份的报告是另一次人的井喷，保证了其可信度的预设：增加了30.3万人的就业人口，比21.4万人的中饥饿估计高出4西格玛，也是华尔街的最高预测。只有一个问题： 近几个月来，西格玛节拍的数量如此之高，“节拍”的整个概念已经变得可笑。

考虑一下：一月份的预期高出5西格玛；我们正好可以确定，2月份的数据超出了3西格玛的预期，而3月份的数据超出了中值估计4-西格玛。不仅如此，在过去的三个月里，实际就业人口（至少在下个月之前），都是华尔街的最高估计！我们对拜登如此努力地整理经济和人口让他们喜欢拜登经济学并批准了他灾难性的经济政策感到很遗憾。也许他应该在一个月内报告就业岗位增加了10,000,000个，然后坐下来等待他的支持率达到100……或者其他什么。

一线希望是，与几个月前家庭调查报告实际就业人数大幅下降相比，3月份 就业人数最终增加了49.8人，达到过去16146.6人，这是4个月来的首次月度增长。

尽管如此，尽管就业略有反弹，但自新冠疫情低谷以来，就业人数仍落后近900 万个。

然而，缓解因素就到此为止了，因为虽然三月份的报告在数量方面有所改善，但在质量方面却又是一场灾难，原因很简单： 所有的就业增长都是兼职工作！

图表 A：3月份， 兼职岗位数量猛增69.1万个，达到2863.2万个，同比增长全职工作岗位从2794.1 万 减少6,000 个， 从 1.32946 万减少到1.3294 万。

当我们将时间延长到过去一年时，这个数字只会变得更加可怕：如下图所示，自2023年3月以来， 全职工人数量锐减134.7万，而兼职工人数量暴增188.8万！

还有更多。

普通读者都知道，自 2018 年以来所有的就业增长都流向了移民，其中大部分是非法移民，我们在上个月 的就业帖子中 详细讨论了这一点。

So what happened in March? It will come as no surprise that there was more of the same, and after the collapse in native-born workers in the last three months when nearly 2.5 million native-born workers lost their jobs, March saw some pick up, and 929K native-born workers were added. Meanwhile, after last month's record increase in foreign-born workers, in March illegal immigrants added another 112K jobs, pushing the total number of foreign-born workers to a new record high of 31.114 million.

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

This, as we have been saying for months now, is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

......并且即将成为一个巨大的政治丑闻，因为一旦不可避免的经济衰退最终来袭，将会有数百万愤怒的失业美国人要求对所发生的事情做出更准确的解释 - 即拜登打开的非法移民闸门行政。

到目前为止，我们很高兴地看到，在 每个人 都忽视了我们几个月来一直在说的话，即所有就业增长都流向了非法者......

这怎么不是现在最大的政治话题：自2019年10月以来，美国本土工人已经失去了140万个工作岗位；同期，外国出生的工人增加了 300 万个就业岗位。 图片。推特.com/Z5HVWmQ24C

— Zerohedge (@zerohedge)

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1746929670308671524?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw​​

......一夜之间，高盛承认，不仅近年来所有的就业增长都流向了非法移民，而且美国现在正在受到入侵。以下是高盛经济学家 Elsie Peng 的笔记摘录，她在笔记中有趣地称非法移民为“未经授权 的移民”（专业人士可以 在通常的地方查看）：

Net US immigration surged in 2023. Recent reports from the Congressional Budget Office and border encounter data from the Office of Homeland Security suggest that net US immigration was running above the estimate implied by the change in the foreign-born population in the household survey over the last couple of years. We estimate that net US immigration surged to roughly 2.5 million in 2023, the highest level in the last two decades (Exhibit 1). In today’s note, we look at where recent immigrants are coming from, what parts of the US they are heading to, and how they compare to the rest of the US labor force.

Unauthorized immigrants from South America, Central America, and Mexico have accounted for most of the recent surge in immigration. Using immigration court case data, we estimate that the number of unauthorized immigrants from these three regions likely tripled in 2023 from its pre-pandemic average (left side of Exhibit 2). We note that these estimates of unauthorized immigration inflow carry some degree of uncertainty because some immigration court cases also reflect visa overstays. In contrast, the overall level and origin composition of authorized immigrants is similar to pre-pandemic trends (right side of Exhibit 2).

他们要去哪？高盛表示，最受新移民欢迎的目的地州是佛罗里达州、加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和纽约州，这些州总共接收了超过 50% 的新移民。

还有一个妙语，或者说当局如何试图将非法移民的洪流转化为对美国经济的积极影响：显然，所有这些非法移民都是上帝的小礼物，他们保持低工资并从事其他人永远不会想要的工作。

Data from the 2023 Current Population Survey suggest that recent adult immigrants are more likely to be young or prime age (90%) than the native-born adult population (62%) or adult immigrants who arrived earlier (64%). Recent immigrants have a higher labor force participation rate than the native-born population but a lower rate than immigrants who have been in the US for longer, have a higher unemployment rate than either group, are more likely to work in construction and food services and accommodations, and earn significantly lower wages on average.

This is hardly a surprise: none other than Fed Chair Powell fired the starting gun one month ago when in his 60 Minutes interview he effectively said Americans are lazy and that it was the illegals that have been critical in keep wages lower even as jobs have grown substantially in the past year (at least according to the Establishment survey). Recall this exchange from the interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

But that's not all: just in case praising illegal immigration wasn't enough to keeping wage growth low (completely ignoring that all these millions in illegals will require trillions in additional welfare spending, and are the primary beneficiaries of the latest explosion in US debt), there has been a second angle this time courtesy of the CBO which recently hilarious "calculated" that illegal immigrants will boost US GDP by $7 trillion in the next decade.

This is how CBO Director Phill Swagel summarized it: "as a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenue will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise."

And there you have it: yes, the US hasn't added any jobs to native-born Americans in six years, as instead all jobs have gone to immigrants, mostly the illegal variety, but that's good news you see, because if it wasn't for these lovely creatures flooding into the US, wages would be higher (that's a bad thing according to the Fed), and the US economy would not grow by $9 trillion. Just please ignore that that $9 trillion in "growth" will come only thanks to $20 trillion in debt, almost all of it soaked up by these same illegals, and of course, a handful of corrupt, embezzling politicians.

因此，场景已经设定：如果特朗普或共和党最终齐心协力，制止非法移民的泛滥，那么也只有到那时，劳工统计局和经济分析局才会承认美国经济有多么丑陋。 ，劳动力市场和通货膨胀确实如此......然后他们会指责特朗普将美国推入滞胀性衰退，因为他阻止了创纪录的移民流入，否则美国就注定要失败。

泰勒·德登 星期五，04/05/2024 - 12:05