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Shanghai Seen Replacing Paris as Global Growth Center by 2035
2035年上海将取代巴黎成为全球增长中心 Balance of global power continuing to move east, Oxford Economics forecasts show 牛津经济预测显示，全球实力平衡继续东移 Shanghai will replace Paris in the top five of global city economies by 2035 in a sign the balance of the world's economy is shifting east, according to an Oxford Economics study. 根据牛津大学的一项经济学研究，到2035年，上海将取代巴黎，成为全球城市经济的前五大城市。这一迹象表明，世界经济的平衡正在向东方转移。 The top 780 cities in the world, which already produce almost 60 percent of global activity, will add almost half a billion more people and $32 trillion in output over roughly the next couple of decades, Mark Britton, an economist at Oxford Economics, writes in a research note published this week. 世界780强城市已经产生几乎60%的全球活动,将增加近十亿多人和大致未来的几十年里输出32万亿美元,马克·布里顿牛津经济研究院的经济学家在本周公布的一份研究报告中写道。 The eye-popping headline figures mask significant disparities between cities studied, Britton wrote. Among the big winners: emerging Asia, with three other Chinese cities entering into the top 10: Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. 布里顿写道，令人瞠目的标题数字掩盖了研究的城市之间的巨大差异。其中最大的赢家是亚洲新兴市场，另外三个中国城市进入了前10名:北京、广州和天津。 “The world’s urban center will continue to shift eastwards, particularly as growth in a number of cities in the West is likely to be constrained by aging, and in some cases, declining, population,” Britton wrote. 布里顿写道:“世界城市中心将继续向东方转移，尤其是在西方许多城市的增长可能会受到老龄化的限制，在某些情况下，人口会减少。”  The changing power balance is shown by the forecast that the combined output of Asian cities will overtake that of urban centers in Europe and North America in about a decade, according to Britton. A decade ago, the cities in the West claimed twice the aggregate GDP of those in Asia. 根据布里顿的说法，在未来10年里，亚洲城市的综合产出将超过欧洲和北美的城市中心，这一预测显示了变化的力量平衡。十年前，西方城市的GDP总量是亚洲的两倍。 Non-Chinese Asian cities will also post impressive growth, with places like Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur adding $4.7 trillion in GDP through 2035. But China’s urban star power will increase by about $14 trillion over that period, and 15 of its cities will join the top-100 rankings, on top of 18 already on the list. 非中国的亚洲城市也将实现令人瞩目的增长，到2035年，孟买和吉隆坡等地的GDP将增加4.7万亿美元。但中国的城市明星效应将在此期间增加约14万亿美元，其中15个城市将跻身前100名，排在榜单前18位。 The estimates are based on constant 2015 prices and exchange rates. 这些估计是基于2015年的价格和汇率。  Two cities in Latin America – Santiago and Rio de Janeiro – will drop out of the top-100 rankings, and while the Middle East looks to be making gradual improvement, cities there could get a boost if development plans like Saudi Arabia’s are implemented. There will be rapid urbanization in African nations, but it will take time for that to translate into big economic gains, Britton estimates. 拉丁美洲的两个城市——圣地亚哥和里约热内卢——将会退出前100名的排名，而中东地区似乎正在逐步改善，如果像沙特阿拉伯这样的发展计划得以实施，那里的城市可能会得到提振。布里顿估计，非洲国家将会有快速的城市化，但这将需要时间来转化为巨大的经济收益。 That challenge for policy makers – leveraging their populations to spur the economy – could make or break some of these cities, Britton warned. 布里顿警告说，对政策制定者的挑战——利用他们的人口来刺激经济——可能会导致或破坏这些城市。 “Rapid population growth in emerging cities requires considerable management to ensure the infrastructure can accommodate the additional people,” he wrote. “This includes the provision of adequate housing, support services and transport networks, whilst also developing and maintaining the city as an attractive place to live and work.” “新兴城市人口的快速增长需要大量的管理，以确保基础设施能够容纳更多的人，”他写道。“这包括提供充足的住房、支持服务和交通网络，同时发展和维护城市作为一个有吸引力的居住和工作场所。” |
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