The process of the Fed's previous interest rate hi...

美联储加息不仅影响美国经济金融发展，更是对全球经济发展和资本市场稳定有着巨大影响。二十世纪九十年代至今，随着美国经济快速发展，通胀开始上涨。为了抑制通胀上行、稳定就业市场、支撑经济增长，美联储以联邦基金目标利率为工具，共完成了4轮加息。2022年3月，美联储宣布加息25个基点，开启了美联储的第五轮加息。我们梳理了历次加息进程及对经济的影响，分析如下：

The Fed's interest rate hike not only affects the economic and financial development of the United States, but also has a great impact on the global economic development and the stability of capital markets. Since the 1990s, with the rapid development of the US economy, inflation has begun to rise. In order to curb upward inflation, stabilize the job market and support economic growth, the Federal Reserve has completed four rounds of interest rate hikes with the federal fund target interest rate as a tool. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points, opening the fifth round of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. We have combed the process of previous interest rate increases and their impact on the economy, and the analysis is as follows:

(一) 第一轮加息周期(1994/2-1995/2)

(I)The first interest rate increase cycle (1994 / 2-1995 / 2)

二十世纪九十年代初，美国经济陷入衰退。为了支撑经济复苏，美联储降低联邦基金目标利率，从9%降至1992年的3%，随后便维持低位运行。

In the early 1990s, the American economy fell into recession. In order to support the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target interest rate from 9% to 3% in 1992, and then kept it low.

此后，美国经济强劲复苏，失业率也保持在较低的水平。1994年四季度，美国GDP同比增长了4.12%，较1991年一季度的同比下跌0.95%，GDP同比增速大幅上涨。在此背景下，美联储担忧经济过热引发通胀大幅上涨。1994年2月，在通胀并未大幅上涨的背景下，美联储宣布加息，首次加息20个基点。在随后的12个月内美联储共加息7次，累计加息300个基点。

Since then, the US economy has recovered strongly and the unemployment rate has remained at a low level. In the fourth quarter of 1994, the U.S. GDP increased by 4.12% year-on-year, down 0.95% year-on-year from the first quarter of 1991, and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP increased sharply. In this context, the Fed is worried that the overheating economy will lead to a sharp rise in inflation. In February 1994, when inflation did not rise sharply, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 20 basis points for the first time. In the following 12 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times, with a cumulative increase of 300 basis points.

美国方面，此次提前加息有效地抑制了美国通胀上行，但对资本市场产生了较大影响。美联储宣布加息后，美国通胀回落，但经济增速开始放缓。资本市场方面，加息后，企业盈利能力受到影响，美股市场大幅回落，随后呈现出震荡下行趋势。在此次加息周期内，美国三大股指大幅下跌，跌幅均超过了4%。债市方面，美债收益率大幅攀升。

In the United States, the interest rate hike in advance effectively restrained the upward inflation in the United States, but had a great impact on the capital market. After the Federal Reserve announced interest rate hike, US inflation fell, but economic growth began to slow down. In the capital market, after the interest rate increase, the profitability of enterprises was affected, and the US stock market fell sharply, followed by a shock downward trend. During the interest rate hike cycle, the three major stock indexes in the United States fell sharply, with a decline of more than 4%. In the bond market, US bond yields rose sharply.

新兴市场国家方面，美联储此次加息对全球金融市场造成了广泛而深远的影响。随着美元走强，新兴市场国家货币迅速贬值，尤其是墨西哥，货币大幅贬值。受到市场恐慌情绪蔓延的影响，大量资本从墨西哥流出，国际收支情况恶化，直接导致了墨西哥国内爆发了大规模的货币危机。

In emerging market countries, the Fed's interest rate hike has had a broad and far-reaching impact on global financial markets. With the strengthening of the US dollar, the currencies of emerging market countries depreciated rapidly, especially Mexico. Affected by the spread of market panic, a large amount of capital flowed out of Mexico, and the balance of payments deteriorated, which directly led to the outbreak of a large-scale currency crisis in Mexico.

中国方面，1994年，中国股市还未与国际市场建立比较密切的联系，美联储加息对中国的影响较小。除此之外，在美联储加息之前，中国央行已经开始收紧货币政策，以应对国内通胀上涨。因此，此轮加息对中国金融市场的影响并不明显。

In China, in 1994, China's stock market had not established a close relationship with the international market, and the Fed's interest rate hike had little impact on China. In addition, before the Fed raised interest rates, the Central Bank of China has begun to tighten monetary policy to cope with rising domestic inflation. Therefore, the impact of this round of interest rate increase on China's financial market is not obvious.

(二) 第二轮加息周期(1999/6-2000/5)

(II)The second interest rate increase cycle (1999 / 6-2000 / 5)

二十世纪九十年代末，受到东南亚金融危机和俄罗斯债务违约的影响，美联储下调联邦基准利率。随后，美国经济快速发展，IT行业飞速增长，大量资金涌入IT行业。与此同时，美国通胀持续攀升，CPI超过了美联储设定的2%的政策目标。1999年6月，美联储宣布收紧货币政策，开始加息。在随后的11个月内美联储共加息6次，累计加息175个基点。

In the late 1990s, affected by the Southeast Asian financial crisis and Russia's debt default, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal benchmark interest rate. Subsequently, the U.S. economy developed rapidly, the IT industry grew rapidly, and a large number of funds poured into the IT industry. Meanwhile, US inflation continued to rise, and CPI exceeded the 2% policy target set by the Federal Reserve. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve announced to tighten monetary policy and began to raise interest rates. In the following 11 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates six times, with a cumulative increase of 175 basis points.

美国方面，加息后，美国三大主要股指涨跌互现，纳斯达克综合指数大幅上涨，市场陷入“科技股泡沫”。美债收益率和美元指数双双上涨，呈现出震荡上行的势头。整体来看，此次加息规模较小，并未改变市场的原本趋势。

In the U.S., after the interest rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell, the Nasdaq composite index rose sharply, and the market fell into a 'technology stock foam'. US bond yields and the US dollar index both rose, showing a momentum of shock and upward. On the whole, the interest rate increase is small and has not changed the original trend of the market.

新兴市场方面，此轮加息引起新兴市场主要股指短期内波动加剧，但并未引发国际资本大规模流出。中国方面，二十世纪九十年代末，中国经济正在缓慢复苏。自1997年四季度以来，为了缓解国内的通缩风险，央行开始实施宽松的货币政策。在此轮加息周期中，中美货币政策表现分化，美国加息对中国的影响相对较小。

In terms of emerging markets, this round of interest rate hikes caused the volatility of major stock indexes in emerging markets to intensify in the short term, but did not trigger a large-scale outflow of international capital. On the Chinese side, in the late 1990s, China's economy was slowly recovering. Since the fourth quarter of 1997, in order to alleviate the risk of domestic deflation, the central bank has begun to implement loose monetary policy. In this round of interest rate hike cycle, the performance of China US monetary policy is differentiated, and the impact of US interest rate hike on China is relatively small.

(三) 第三轮加息周期(2004/6-2006/5)

(III)The third interest rate increase cycle (2004 / 6-2006 / 5)

二十一世纪初，美国经济发展和金融市场受到“科技股泡沫”破灭的影响，陷入衰退。2001-2003年期间，美联储连续13次降息，将基准利率维持在较低水平。在长期低利率的背景下，美国房价大幅上涨，房地产泡沫显现，通胀抬头。为了应对房地产泡沫和通胀风险，2004年6月，美联储宣布加息。在随后的24个月内美联储共加息17次，累计加息425个基点。

At the beginning of the 21st century, the economic development and financial market of the United States fell into recession due to the bursting of the 'technology stock foam'. From 2001 to 2003, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 13 times in a row to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a low level. Against the background of long-term low interest rates, US house prices rose sharply, the real estate foam appeared, and inflation rose. In order to deal with the real estate foam and inflation risk, the Federal Reserve announced to raise interest rates in June, 2004. In the following 24 months, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points.

美国方面，加息周期内，美债收益率回落，而美元指数也并未随着美联储加息走高，受到美国通胀值较高的影响，美元表现疲软。此轮加息虽然时间长、规模大，但并未吸引大规模资金流入美国，也未有效遏制房地产泡沫。

In the United States, during the interest rate hike cycle, the US bond yield fell, and the US dollar index did not rise with the Fed's interest rate hike. Affected by the high value of US inflation, the US dollar was weak. Although this round of interest rate increase took a long time and was large in scale, it did not attract large-scale capital to flow into the United States, nor did it effectively curb the real estate foam.

新兴市场方面，由于在此次加息周期中，美元并未明显走强，反而大幅下跌，国际资本并未大范围流出，因此对新兴市场的影响有限。

In terms of emerging markets, the impact on emerging markets is limited because the US dollar did not strengthen significantly in this interest rate increase cycle, but fell sharply, and international capital did not flow out on a large scale.

中国方面，本轮加息周期前后，A股市场呈现出下跌势头，其根本原因是受到中国央行收紧货币政策影响。当时中国资本市场对外开放程度有限，外资对市场的影响较小，更多是受到国内经济发展和货币政策影响。

The fundamental reason is that China's central bank's interest rate hike has shown a downward trend before and after the policy cycle, and the A-share market has been affected by the tightening of China's monetary policy. At that time, the opening-up of China's capital market was limited, and foreign investment had little impact on the market, which was more affected by domestic economic development and monetary policy.

(四) 第四轮加息周期(2015/12-2018/2)

(IV)The fourth interest rate increase cycle (2015 / 12-2018 / 2)

2007年下半年，金融危机席卷全球，美国经济遭受毁灭性打击，失业率大幅上升。为支撑经济复苏，美联储在2007年-2008年期间，连续10次降息。量化宽松的货币政策提振了美国经济，但也导致美联储资产负债表短期内急剧膨胀。随着经济稳步复苏，美联储货币政策转向正常化，2015年12月宣布第一次加息，在随后的37个月内共加息9次，累计加息225个基点。

In the second half of 2007, the financial crisis swept the world, the U.S. economy suffered a devastating blow, and the unemployment rate rose sharply. In order to support the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 10 times in a row from 2007 to 2008. Quantitative easing monetary policy has boosted the US economy, but it also led to the sharp expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in the short term. With the steady recovery of the economy, the Fed's monetary policy turned to normalization. In December 2015, it announced the first interest rate increase. In the following 37 months, it increased interest rates 9 times, with a cumulative increase of 225 basis points.

美国方面，本轮加息周期内，美股表现强劲，美元指数和美债收益率双双上涨。加息结束后，美国经济增速虽有所放缓，但通胀压力得到缓解，就业市场也逐步修复。

In the United States, during the current interest rate hike cycle, US stocks performed strongly, and the US dollar index and US bond yield both rose. After the interest rate hike, although the US economic growth slowed down, the inflationary pressure was relieved and the job market was gradually repaired.

新兴市场方面，在此轮加息周期中，美元表现强势，大量的国际资金流出新兴市场国家，新兴市场国家货币贬值压力激增，部分新兴市场国家GDP出现了负增长。

In terms of emerging markets, in this round of interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar performed strongly, a large number of international funds flowed out of emerging market countries, the pressure of currency devaluation in emerging market countries surged, and the GDP of some emerging market countries showed negative growth.

中国方面，美元升值增加了人民币的贬值压力，与此同时，中国还是美元外汇的主要持有国，在此轮加息周期中，中国外汇储备大幅缩水。A股方面，美联储加息短期内引发市场恐慌情绪蔓延，波动明显。随后，受到央行货币政策和经济增长的影响，大幅反弹。

In China, the appreciation of the US dollar has increased the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB. At the same time, China is still the main holder of US dollar foreign exchange. In this round of interest rate increase cycle, China's foreign exchange reserves have shrunk sharply. In terms of a shares, the Fed's interest rate hike triggered the spread of market panic in the short term, with obvious fluctuations. Subsequently, it rebounded sharply under the influence of the central bank's monetary policy and economic growth.

(五) 第五轮加息周期(2022/3-)

(V)The fifth interest rate increase cycle (2022 / 3 -)

2020年3月以后，为了应对新冠疫情爆发后的经济困境，美联储推出了一系列超常规的量化宽松的货币政策。一方面，美联储选择降低市场融资成本，在2020年3月连续两次降息，将基准利率降至0-0.25%，低至接近零利率。另一方面，美联储陆续推出了一些系列的量化宽松的货币政策以增加美国金融市场的流动性。这些经济刺激和规模和力度是史无前例的，在此之后，美联储资产负债表规模迅速扩大，通胀持续走高。

After March 2020, in order to deal with the economic difficulties after the outbreak of COVID-19, the Fed launched a series of ultra conventional quantitative easing monetary policy. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve chose to reduce market financing costs and cut interest rates twice in a row in March 2020, reducing the benchmark interest rate to 0-0.25%, close to zero. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has successively launched a series of quantitative easing monetary policies to increase the liquidity of the U.S. financial market. The scale and intensity of these economic stimuli are unprecedented. After that, the scale of the Fed's balance sheet expanded rapidly and inflation continued to rise.

美国劳工部公布的最新数据显示，3月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨了8.5%，同比涨幅持续创造今四十年以来最高纪录；3月核心CPI环比上涨了0.3%；同比增长了6.5%，创1982年8月以来最大同比涨幅。

According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.5% year-on-year in March, and the year-on-year increase continued to set the highest record in 40 years; Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month in March; It increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since August 1982.

在此背景下，美联储也将2022年的工作重心转移到抑制不断攀升的通胀上。在2021年11月的月度息会后，美联储宣布在11月开始缩减购债规模。美联储Taper正式落地，这也意味着持续了将近一年半的超常规的货币政策开始向正常化转变。2022年3月，美联储宣布加息30个基点，首次加息落地。5月息会后，宣布加息50个基点，并表示将有较大的可能性在6月和7月两次加息50个基点。

In this context, the Fed will also shift its focus in 2022 to curb rising inflation. After the monthly interest rate meeting in November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of bond purchase in November. The official landing of the Federal Reserve taper also means that the unconventional monetary policy, which lasted for nearly a year and a half, began to change to normalization. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 30 basis points, which was implemented for the first time. After the interest rate meeting in May, it announced a 50 basis point increase in interest rates and said that it would be more likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points twice in June and July.

美国方面，首次加息落地并未明显改善美国的通胀现状，美国通胀压力依然较大。考虑到供应链瓶颈、大宗商品价格走高、能源价格大幅攀升和食品价格暴涨的影响或将持续较长时间，美国通胀压力短期内较难缓解。经济方面，最新公布的数据显示，美国第一季度实际GDP初值环比下降了1.4%，自2020年第二季度以来首次环比下降， 2021年第四季度终值上涨6.9%。从细分领域来看，美国内需依然表现较为强劲，支撑美联储在5月加息50个基点。但需要注意的是，随着美联储货币政策进一步收紧，消费或在下半年走弱，这将加大美国经济的下行压力，或促使美联储在三季度逐步放缓加息步伐。

In the United States, the first interest rate hike did not significantly improve the inflation situation in the United States, and the inflation pressure in the United States is still large. Considering that the impact of supply chain bottlenecks, rising commodity prices, sharp rise in energy prices and soaring food prices may last for a long time, it is difficult to alleviate the inflationary pressure in the United States in the short term. In terms of economy, the latest data show that the initial real GDP of the United States decreased by 1.4% month on month in the first quarter, decreased for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, and the final value increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. In terms of segments, domestic demand in the United States is still relatively strong, supporting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. However, it should be noted that with the further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, consumption may weaken in the second half of the year, which will increase the downward pressure on the US economy or cause the fed to gradually slow down the pace of raising interest rates in the third quarter.

新兴市场方面，美元指数上升，美元走强，本土货币走弱，或引发大量的外资流出新兴市场，回到美国，新兴市场股市短期内震荡明显。

In emerging markets, the rise of the US dollar index, the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of local currencies may lead to a large number of foreign capital outflow from emerging markets and return to the United States. The stock market in emerging markets fluctuates significantly in the short term.

人民币汇率方面，考虑到当前全球金融市场受到美联储加息的影响波动明显，而中美货币政策分化进一步扩大，增加未来人民币汇率走势的不确定性。人民币贬值会对我国经济社会造成广泛的影响：首先是外资或受到汇率波动加剧的影响流出中国资本市场，其次以人民币计价的资产贬值压力增强，也不利于我国进口产业的长期发展。

In terms of RMB exchange rate, considering that the current global financial market is significantly affected by the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, and the differentiation of China US monetary policy is further expanded, which increases the uncertainty of the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future. The devaluation of RMB will have a wide impact on China's economy and society: firstly, foreign capital flows out of China's capital market or is affected by the intensification of exchange rate fluctuations. Secondly, the pressure of asset devaluation denominated in RMB increases, which is not conducive to the long-term development of China's import industry.

(六)美联储加息短期内扰动市场，但长期上涨趋势不改

（6） The Fed's interest rate hike will disturb the market in the short term, but the long-term upward trend will not change

美国作为全球范围内的超级大国，是全球流动性的主要供给者。从历史数据来看，在加息周期内，海外市场短期波动加剧。但等到美联储连续加息、市场风险和压力得到充分释放后，全球市场将迎来新一轮的上涨行情。

As a global superpower, the United States is the main supplier of global liquidity. From the historical data, the short-term volatility of overseas markets intensified during the interest rate hike cycle. However, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates continuously and the market risks and pressures are fully released, the global market will usher in a new round of rising market.

中国方面，随着中国资本市场国际化进程稳步提升，美联储加息也增加了中国资本市场的不确定性。在此前的四轮加息周期中，A股市场在短期内受到美国流动性收紧出现波动。但从中长期来看，A股市场并未跟随着美联储加息周期变化，而是走出独立行情，其主要原因是中国资本市场受到国内经济、政策变化的影响更大。

In China, with the steady improvement of the internationalization process of China's capital market, the Fed's interest rate increase has also increased the uncertainty of China's capital market. In the previous four interest rate hike cycles, the A-share market fluctuated due to the tightening of us liquidity in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the A-share market did not follow the change of the Fed's interest rate increase cycle, but walked out of the independent market. The main reason is that China's capital market is more affected by domestic economic and policy changes.

后市来看，虽然今年中国经济上行压力有所增加，但中国经济韧性较强，自新冠疫情在全球蔓延以来，仍然实现了强劲增长，经济发展前景良好，预计仍能维持增长的势头。在“稳增长”政策力度不断加大的背景下，央行货币政策坚持“以我为主”，保证流动性合理充裕，海外流动性收紧的影响或逐渐削弱。

In the future, although the upward pressure on China's economy has increased this year, China's economy is resilient. Since the new crown epidemic spread around the world, it has still achieved strong growth. The economic development prospect is good, and it is expected to maintain the growth momentum. In the context of the increasing efforts of the 'steady growth' policy, the central bank's monetary policy adheres to 'focus on me' to ensure reasonable and abundant liquidity, and the impact of overseas liquidity tightening may be gradually weakened.

文章作者：陈雳、任莉（陈雳为川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长,中国首席经济学家论坛理事）

Author: Chen Li, Ren Li (Chen Li is chief economist of Chuancai securities, director of Research Institute, and director of China chief economist Forum)

（文章来源：首席经济学家论坛）

Article source：首席经济学家论坛

Original title：陈雳：美联储历次加息进程及对全球经济的影响